Starz put out a press release (also recounted at Variety) yesterday about CEO John Sies prediction that by the end of the decade, studios will "release their films first on cable and satellite, and later in the theaters" predicting the potential of "first day revenues of $200 million per film." Corporate hype, or clever prognostication?

Sies' thinking is based on two key assumptions to reach that $200M figure, each of which could withstand a bit a scrutiny ... but by predicting it "within the next decade" he's built himself some slush room. Those assumptions?

"Sie noted that there are about 5 million HD capable sets in the United States today. In the next decade, that figure will likely rise to 50 million or about 50% of US television households."

His logic wouldn't necessarily be false even if HD capable sets don't take off as well as he describes, but in his $200 million equation is the assumption of capturing 20% of those sets as potential revenue -- or 10 million sets. Compare that number to the best of what television delivers right now: Tuesday's American Idol this week reached 23 million people, The Apprentice 22 million, and Survivor almost 21 million. But these are broadcast numbers ... if you look instead at the episode of The Sopranos on HBO, you find 9.9 million.

"If a major studio can debut a film at a price of $19.95 (about what it costs two people to go to the theater) and attract 20% of HD homes to watch, that would generate $200 million in revenue on the opening day, a blockbuster number in anybody's book."

Well, that's actually $199.5 million, but what's a half-million among friends? The real question is whether or you can really sell a debut blockbuster VOD PPV at that price point: typically PPV charges in the industry now are more like $5 (although admittedly with product later in its lifestyle) -- while $50M still wouldn't be something to scoff at as first-day figures.

Is Sies' putting that much faith in the idea that HD and "first day fever" might quadruple the effective price point for pay-per-view?