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Fincher, 'Fury' and Festival Fare: Box Office Insider's Guide To Fall At The Movies

Photo of Jim Amos By Jim Amos | Box Office Insider August 22, 2014 at 1:44AM

Box Office Insider presents part one of its annual Fall Movie Preview Edition. Today we look at September and October titles, including David Fincher's "Gone Girl", the two Roberts (Downey Jr & Duvall) in "Judge" and Brad Pitt and Shia LaBeouf in a tank. Watch for part two early next week.
2
Gone Girl

Ah yes, we're finally done with sequels, superheroes and movie mayhem, at least for a little while.  Fall is the time for more serious fare as we head towards the holidays and the annual 46 months of awards season.  In today's part one we look at September and October, once a cinematic Land of Misfit Toys for films that couldn't compete anywhere else during the year but that has changed recently in the studios' quest for 12 month a year programming and the addition of several mini-majors.  

The Identical

    SEPTEMBER 5
THE IDENTICAL---FREESTYLE 
Who's in it: Ashley Judd, Ray Liotta
What it is: (Fill in the blanks) Elvis movie meets (Fill in the blanks) faith based title
What it'll do:  Christian films are always so hard to predict.  Is it "God's Not Dead" (also a Freestyle Release) or is it "Mom's Night Out"?  $25-30 million


    SEPTEMBER 12
NO GOOD DEED---SONY
Who's in it: Idris Elba, Taraji P. Henson
What it is: "Labor Day" meets "Enough"
What it'll do: Nothing says lighthearted entertainment like home invasion movies.  $25-30 million

DOLPHIN TALE 2---WARNER BROTHERS
Who's in it: Ashley Judd (yes the 2nd Ashley Judd movie in two weeks!), Morgan Freeman
What it is:  Uhhh, it's like "Dolphin Tale 1"
What it'll do:  The original did $72 million.  Yes we're serious.  We're half as excited this time around so $36 million

The Drop

THE DROP---FOX SEARCHLIGHT
Who's in it: Tom Hardy and the final on screen performance by James Gandolfini
What it is:  "Little Odessa" meets "The Sopranos"
What it'll do: Mid-range indie hit, largely due to the Gandolfini factor

Eleanor Rigby

THE DISAPPEARANCE OF ELEANOR RIGBY--WEINSTEIN
Who's in it: Jessica Chastain, James McAvoy
What it is:  "He Said, She Said" with really good actors
What it'll do:  With expected Oscar buzz, this could run for a while in more sophisticated markets

MY OLD LADY--COHEN MEDIA GROUP
Who's in it: Maggie Smith, Kevin Kline
What it is:  "Goodbye Girl" for the "Downton Abbey" set
What it'll do:  Has a future on VOD unless the Dowager Countess gets awards season buzz

THE SKELETON TWINS--ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS
Who's in it:  SNL alums Bill Hader and Kristen Wiig
What it is:  The first 3/4 of "It's A Wonderful Life" 
What it'll do: VOD business


The Maze Runner

    SEPTEMBER 19
THE MAZE RUNNER---FOX
Who's in it: Dylan O'Brien, Will Poulter
What it is: "Hunger Games" meets "Lord of the Flies" in Geometry class
What it'll do:  Early online social media buzz is strong.  $80-90 mil

A WALK AMONG THE TOMBSTONES--UNIVERSAL
Who's in it:  Liam Neeson.  Do you really need anyone more than that?
What it is:  "Chinatown" meets "Scarface" with a side order of "Taken" thrown in
What it'll do: More "Non-Stop" than "Taken".  $55-65 mil

This Is Where I Leave You

THIS IS WHERE I LEAVE YOU--WARNER BROTHERS
Who's in it:  Jason Bateman, Tina Fey, Jane Fonda, Adam Driver
What it is: 1/3 "Death at a Funeral", 1/3 "Arrested Development", 1/3 "August: Osage County"
What it'll do: This could surprise. And pencil in a Best Supporting Actress nod for Jane.  $40-50 mil

TUSK--A24
Who's in it:  Fleetwood Mac, the USC Marching Band.  No wait, that's not right.  Justin Long, Kevin Smith (director)
What it is: If Jay and Silent Bob made "Hostel"
What it'll do:  95% of its business from drunken 11pm VOD selections

TRACKS--WEINSTEIN
Who's in it:  Mia Wasikowska, four camels, one dog
What it is: "Priscilla, Queen of the Desert" meets "Babe"
What it'll do:  Hopefully it becomes an art house hit, we hear it's good

Hector And The Search For Happiness

HECTOR AND THE SEARCH FOR HAPPINESS---RELATIVITY
Who's in it: Simon Pegg, Rosamund Pike, Christopher Plummer, Toni Collette
What it is: "Eat, Pray, Love" with testosterone
What it'll do:  If it can navigate through a cluttered indie film sea it could catch on.  We've seen it and it's a wonderful little movie.

PRIDE---CBS
Who's in it:  Imelda Staunton, Paddy Considine, Bill Nighy
What it is:  "Brassed Off" without the sax and violins
What it'll do: Maybe a little bit of business if it catches on with a Gay/Lesbian audience

ZERO THEOREM---AMPLIFY
Who's in it:  Christoph Waltz, Terry Gilliam (director)
What it is:  Harpo Marx starring in "The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus"
What it'll do:  Zero, as it's already on VOD


equalizer

   SEPTEMBER 26
THE EQUALIZER---SONY
Who's in it: Denzel Washington, Chloe Grace Moretz
What it is: The 1980's TV show.  Or, if you never saw that, it's "Training Day" meets "Employee of the Month"
What it'll do:  BIG!  It has the potential to be the first $100 million film of the fall.  The script was outstanding and the old TV show was an absolute classic. $95-105 mil.

THE BOXTROLLS---FOCUS
Who's in it:  Little animated people and the voices of Ben Kingsley, Simon Pegg (yes again) and Toni Collette (yes again)
What it is:  The third animated feature from Laika Studios ("Coraline", "ParaNorman")
What it'll do:  "Coraline" grossed $75 million and "ParaNorman" topped out at $56 million.  We'll take the under and say $50-55 mil

The Two Faces of January

THE TWO FACES OF JANUARY---MAGNOLIA
Who's in it: Kirsten Dunst, Viggo Mortensen, Oscar Isaac
What it is: A Hellenic "Talented Mr. Ripley"
What it'll do:  As it's from Magnolia we're guessing this is mostly a VOD release

THE SONG---GOLDWYN
Who's in it:  Alan Powell, Ali Faulkner
What it is: Hallmark Hall of Fame version of "Walk Hard" 
What it'll do: We'll say it again, faith based films are difficult to assess and predict.  $10 mil?

Jimi: All Is By My Side

JIMI: ALL IS BY MY SIDE---OPEN ROAD
Who's in it: Andre Benjamin, Imogen Poots
What it is:  Uh, ever heard of Jimi Hendrix?
What it'll do:  We've already had two people who haven't gone to the movies since the Carter Administration tell us they can't wait for this.  That's a good sign.  We think.  

DAYS AND NIGHTS---IFC
Who's in it:  Katie Holmes, Ben Whishaw, William Hurt
What it is:  If Chekhov wrote "Closer"
What it'll do:  Depends on IFC's theatrical release pattern


Gone Girl

   OCTOBER 3
GONE GIRL---FOX
Who's in it:  Ben Affleck, Rosamund Pike, Neil Patrick Harris
What it is:  Every series on Investigative Discovery network...if directed by David Fincher
What it'll do:  $100 mil, possibly more

ANNABELLE---WARNER BROTHERS
Who's in it:  Annabelle Wallis (what are the odds?) and the doll from "The Conjuring"
What it is:  "The Bride of Chucky"
What it'll do:  "The Conjuring" grossed $137 million.  Figure $50-60 mil.

LEFT BEHIND---FREESTYLE
Who's in it: Nicolas Cage
What it is: Remake of the 2001 Rapture drama that starred Kirk Cameron
What it'll do:  See the comments regarding the other faith based films.  Cage's presence could lift this into a mid range hit.  $25 mil?

MEN, WOMEN AND CHILDREN---PARAMOUNT
Who's in it: Adam Sandler, Ansel Elgort, Jennifer Garner, Judy Greer, Jason Reitman (director)
What it is: A family counseling session done via Skype
What it'll do: We'll have to wait until Toronto to see if it's as good as we hear.  If so.....

THE GOOD LIE---WARNER BROTHERS
Who's in it:  Reese Witherspoon 
What it is: Sudanese refugee drama
What it'll do: Maybe $20-25 mil if reviews are good.


The Judge

   OCTOBER 10
THE JUDGE---WARNER BROTHERS
Who's in it:  Robert Downey, Jr, Robert Duvall
What it is:  Hotshot New York lawyer defends his Grumpy-Old-Man father 
What it'll do:  Go down the list of grosses from Robert Downey Jr's last several films and let me know when you get to one that didn't work.  Waiting.  Still waiting.  $60-70 mil.

ALEXANDER AND THE...---BUENA VISTA
Who's in it:  Steve Carell, Jennifer Garner, Dick Van Dyke
What it is:  Filmed version of Kidz Bop singing The Boomtown Rats' "I Don't Like Mondays"
What it'll do:  Lots of kids being cute and lots of adults falling down.  That all adds up to $65-70 mil

ADDICTED---LIONSGATE
Who's in it:  Boris Kodjoe, Sharon Leal, Kat Graham
What it is:  "Fatal Attraction" meets "Thanks For Sharing"
What it'll do:  Could catch on with urban audiences.  $25-30 mil

Kill The Messenger

KILL THE MESSENGER--FOCUS
Who's in it:  Jeremy Renner, Mary Elizabeth Winstead
What it is:  "All The Presidents Men" starring Oliver North
What it'll do:  Renner is getting early Oscar buzz.  Reviews will need to be outstanding.

ONE CHANCE---RADIUS
Who's in it:  James Corden, Julie Walters
What it is:  True story of "Britain's Got Talent" winner
What it'll do:  After being moved back over a year and debuting on VOD ten days early?  Not much.

WHIPLASH---SONY CLASSICS
Who's in it:  Miles Teller, J.K. Simmons
What it is:  "Black Swan" starring Buddy Rich
What it'll do:  Mid-range art house hit, pending strong reviews


Fury

   OCTOBER 17
FURY---SONY
Who's in it:  Brad Pitt, Shia LaBeouf, David Ayer (director)
What it is:  "Saving Private Ryan" with tanks
What it'll do: Ready for us to put 20+ years in the film business to work?  Here goes.....this film will do more than "Monuments Men".  Thank you, thank you, we're here all week.  Try the veal.  Tip your waitress, Mandy.   $100-110 mil

Dracula Untold

DRACULA UNTOLD---UNIVERSAL
Who's in it:  Luke Evans, Dominic Cooper
What it is:  Dracula, The Early Years
What it'll do:  Tough sledding opening up against "Fury".  $30-35 mil.

BOOK OF LIFE---FOX
Who's in it: Voices of Channing Tatum, Zoe Saldana, Diego Luna
What it is:  South-of-the-Border animated love story
What it'll do:  $65-70 mil here.  13,459,576,744 pesos in Juarez

THE BEST OF ME---RELATIVITY
Who's in it:  James Marsden, Michelle Monaghan
What it is:  If "The Notebook" was written by Nicholas Sparks.  Oh wait, it was
What it'll do:  Well, not "The Notebook", but $40-50 mil is possible.

Birdman

BIRDMAN---FOX SEARCHLIGHT
Who's in it:  Michael Keaton, Zach Galifianakis, Edward Norton
What it is:  "Batman On The Verge Of A Nervous Breakdown"
What it'll do:  For one thing it'll be on everyone's Top 10 lists by year's end.  Everyone loves Keaton so this has a huge upside.

DEAR WHITE PEOPLE---ROADSIDE
Who's in it:  Kyle Gallner, Dennis Haysbert, Justin Simien (director)
What it is:  African-American students shake up Ivy League college
What it'll do:  RSA will undoubtedly take it out primarily on VOD


   OCTOBER 24
OUIJA---UNIVERSAL
Who's in it:  Olivia Cooke, Ana Coto
What it is:  70's board game produced by Michael Bay and Jason Blum
What it'll do:  More than "Clue", if that's saying anything.  $40-45 mil

St. Vincent Pic 2

ST VINCENT---WEINSTEIN
Who's in it:  Bill Murray, Melissa McCarthy
What it is:  "Grumpy Old Men" meets "Adventures in Babysitting"
What it'll do:  Another film with great pre-release buzz.  Could be one of the surprises of the fall

LAGGIES---A24
Who's in it:  Keira Knightley, Chloe Grace Moretz
What it is:  Keira & Chloe hang for two hours
What it'll do:  Hmmm, with that concept I'm guessing not much.


Nightcrawler

   OCTOBER 31
NIGHTCRAWLER---OPEN ROAD
Who's in it:  Jake Gyllenhaal, Rene Russo, Bill Paxton
What it is:  Film Noir, circa 2014
What it'll do:  Gyllenhaal is apparently awesome in the film.  Here's thinking this works, especially with this wide open release date.  $30-35 mil.

BEFORE I GO TO SLEEP--CLARIUS
Who's in it:  Nicole Kidman, Colin Firth
What it is:  "50 First Deaths"
What it'll do:  I had a number in mind but for some reason I forgot it.

HORNS--RADIUS
Who's in it:  Daniel Radcliffe, Juno Temple
What it is:  "Gone Girl" meets "Mutual Of Omaha's Wild Kingdom"
What it'll do:  Seriously? 

 
 


 

This article is related to: Box Office, Fall Movie Preview


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2014
9/5 Forrest Gump
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8/6 - 8/16 Locarno
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