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Projected Weekend Box Office Top 10: It's "Neighbors" Over "ASM2" By A Nose

Box Office
by Jim Amos
May 9, 2014 11:07 AM
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If Bette Davis were alive today she'd look at the impending box office battle this weekend between "Neighbors" and "ASM2" and utter those famous words..."fasten your seat belts, it's gonna be a bumpy night!"  Well, actually a bumpy weekend.  Fingers all over North America will be repeatedly striking their Rentrak "refresh" buttons like some 1980's video game each evening, assessing the impact of every hourly increase.  I have "Neighbors" coming it at around $36 million for the three days but that total has been fluctuating up and down this week like a ride at Magic Mountain.  Tuesday it was hovering around $40M, then back down to $32M.  I'll keep it right where I had it Monday morning, at $36 million.  

Attempting not to free fall too quickly is "Amazing Spider-Man 2".  The weekday grosses have been less than impressive which is causing concern as to how far the superhero may plummet by the time Mother's Day is done.  If we go back in time we see that "Spider-Man 3", which had similar reviews and Cinemascores and was around the same time period, fell 61% in its second weekend.  That sounds like as good a predicted decline as any.

As for the other two openings, I'll stick with my $7 million prediction on "Moms' Night Out" but reluctantly have raised my number on "Legends of Oz", although only by one million and I am still on the low end of industry predictions.  Here's how I see it all shaking out once we're done taking our moms to Sunday dinner.

1.  NEIGHBORS--Universal---$36.0M

2.  AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2---Sony---$35.7M---Down 61%

3.  THE OTHER WOMAN---$8.1M---Down 44%

4.  MOMS' NIGHT OUT---Sony/Tri-Star---$7.0M

5.  LEGENDS OF OZ: DOROTHY'S RETURN--Freestyle---$6.0M

6.  HEAVEN IS FOR REAL---Sony/Tri-Star---5.3M---Down 38%

7.  RIO 2---Fox---4.4M---Down 42%

8.  CAPTAIN AMERICA: WINTER SOLDIER---BV---$3.9M---Down 50%

9.  BRICK MANSIONS---Relativity---$1.5M---Down 59%

10. GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL--Fox Searchlight---$1.3M---Down 29%


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