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Weekend Top 10 Projections: Why Weepy Tweens Will Topple Tom's "Tomorrow"

Photo of Jim Amos By Jim Amos | Box Office Insider June 5, 2014 at 5:41PM

Look for females to find no "Fault In Our Stars" this weekend as the tween rom/drama seeks to expand past its core 12-20 year old demographic and lure older women into the multiplex. If they can pull off that feat then first place is a given as "Maleficent" and "Edge Of Tomorrow" will have to settle for second and third.
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Fault in Our Stars

Things are humming along nicely for Fox's "The Fault In Our Stars" as social media will surely drive the film into first place this weekend at the box office. It's pretty much a given that they have a better chance of attracting Inuits into the theatre than they do of having males wander in but the company has gone after women 25+ with a marketing campaign geared toward that audience.  My Monday prediction was $32 million but the stars seem to be lining up for Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort and tonight's "Night Before Our Stars" event in roughly 700 theatres should be enormous so I'm upping my projection to $39 million. One thing to keep in mind about weekend grosses on "Fault" is that because tonight's regular late shows PLUS the "Night Before Our Stars" event will be rolled into Friday's overall gross, the drop between Friday and Saturday will be substantial, which will make projecting the weekend total a bit like projecting lottery numbers. 

It's also hard to judge how Disney's "Maleficent" will drop.  If you go back to "Snow White and the Huntsman" from 2012, that film opened to $56 million and then dropped 59% in its second weekend.  "Maleficent" won't fall that hard as it enjoys an A Cinemascore vs a B for Huntsman so I'm thinking Angie takes a 52% tumble this weekend, which would have it fall in the $33 million range, certainly a tidy second week take.

I'd have to go back and look at the last time a Tom Cruise action vehicle finished in third place on its opening weekend but I imagine it's been a while, if ever.  Reviews are strong on the film (it currently has an 88 Rotten Tomatoes score) but somehow it feels like there's something missing.

PROJECTED WEEKEND TOP 10

1)   THE FAULT IN OUR STARS---FOX---$39 MILLION
See above.  And don't be surprised if ultimately there's a 4 in front of the weekend number.

2)   MALEFICENT---DISNEY---$33.3 MILLION---52% DROP
See above.  Can they lure older females away from "Fault"?

3)   EDGE OF TOMORROW---WARNERS---$28 MILLION
See above.  Prove me wrong Tom.

4)   X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST---FOX---$12.6 MILLION---61% DROP
"Godzilla" fell 61% in its third weekend so I expect the same for this.

5)   A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST---UNIVERSAL---$10.0 MILLION---40% DROP
"This Is The End" fell 36% in its 2nd week last year off a similar opening weekend with a slightly better Cinemascore

6)   GODZILLA---WARNERS---$4.803 MILLION--60% DROP
#'s 6,7 and 8 line up at the center ice face-off circle, drop the gloves and go all Schultz Vs. Wensink on each other.

7)  NEIGHBORS---UNIVERSAL---$4.802 MILLION---39% DROP

8)  BLENDED---WARNERS---$4.801 MILLION---$40% DROP

9)  CHEF---OPEN ROAD---$2.2 MILLION
Jon Favreau dramedy expands to 1,300 runs this weekend

10) MILLION DOLLAR ARM---DISNEY---$1.8 MILLION---48% DROP

This article is related to: Box Office, This Week's Predictions, The Fault In Our Stars., Edge of Tomorrow., Maleficent, Shailene Woodley


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2014
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