One of the tough calls on Oscar pools this weekend may in fact be best picture race...will the winner be the favorite "Brokeback Mountain", or the surprise challenger, "Crash"?

Frankly, each of the best picture contenders would be a worth winner, except "Crash." It is not the best movie of 2005. Paul Haggis film is provocative and filled with some great performances, but it is terribly misguided, even as a parable. "Crash" was one of the more interesting movies of last year, but not one of the best five (and I did find it interesting to read today that it is backed by both the mayor of L.A. and the LAPD police chief).

For my predictions (posted below), I am sticking with my prediction of "Brokeback" in the best picture race. I really don't see AMPAS members going for "Crash" for the big award at the end of the day. Depite the increasing "Crash" buzz, if "Brokeback" doesn't win best picture I will be quite surprised.

What do you think? Care to share some predictions? The complete list of nominees is available on the indieWIRE site.

My predictions:

Best motion picture of the year: "Brokeback Mountain"

Achievement in directing: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"

Performance by an actress in a leading role: Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"

Performance by an actress in a supporting role: Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"

Performance by an actor in a leading role: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"

Performance by an actor in a supporting role: George Clooney, "Syriana"

Adapted screenplay: "Brokeback Mountain", Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana

Original screenplay: "Crash", Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Story by Paul Haggis

Best foreign language film of the year: "Tsotsi", South Africa

Best documentary feature: "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room"

Best animated feature film of the year: "Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit"

Achievement in art direction: Art Direction: John Myhre, Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau, "Memoirs of a Geisha"

Achievement in cinematography: Dion Beebe, "Memoirs of a Geisha"

Achievement in costume design: Colleen Atwood, "Memoirs of a Geisha"

Best documentary short subject: "God Sleeps in Rwanda"

Achievement in film editing: Hughes Winborne, "Crash"

Achievement in makeup: Howard Berger and Tami Lane, "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score): Gustavo Santaolalla, "Brokeback Mountain"

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song): "Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica", Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton

Best animated short film: "One Man Band"

Best live action short film: "Six Shooter"

Achievement in sound editing: Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn, "King Kong"

Achievement in sound mixing: Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek, "King Kong"

Achievement in visual effects: Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor, "King Kong"