obama | "this is our moment"

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Friends of mine and readers of this blog know who I've been excited about since his campaign officially began 15 months ago. Without a doubt, this is a terrific moment.

"America, this is our moment. This is our time. Our time to turn the page on the policies of the past. Our time to bring new energy and new ideas to the challenges we face. Our time to offer a new direction for the country we love."

Pictured: A snapshot from an Obama rally at the Meadowlands in New Jersey three months ago.
[photo © eugene hernandez]

below: a campaign email sent a few minutes ago...

» Continue reading "obama | "this is our moment""


a more perfect union

37 essential minutes from the campaign. Today's Obama speech on race in America. Here's a hope that it stirs a serious, extended dialogue. And a Maureen Dowd's take.



nyt | unofficial tallies in city understated obama vote

In today's NYT: Black voters are heavily represented in the 94th Election District in Harlem's 70th Assembly District. Yet according to the unofficial results from the New York Democratic primary last week, not a single vote in the district was cast for Senator Barack Obama...City election officials this week said that their formal review of the results, which will not be completed for weeks, had confirmed some major discrepancies between the vote totals reported publicly -- and unofficially -- on primary night and the actual tally on hundreds of voting machines across the city.



super tuesday | delegates

As of 10:30 p.m. states are breaking in various directions. Obama seems to be taking: AL, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, UT. Clinton is apparently getting: AR, MA, MO, NY, NJ, OK, TN.

But what really matters as we await CA, are the delegate counts. A few minutes ago, ABC News reported that its tight, just updated with Clinton at 450 and Obama at 397. A total of 2025 are needed to win the nomination.



super tuesday | change

Reporting exit poll data moments ago, ABC NEWS lead with the news that "change" was the most important attribute in a candidate for President among Democrats nationwide as they left the polls today in 24 states: Change 52%, Experience 23%, Empathy 13% (on the Republican side: Shared Values 44%, Experience 25%, Straight Talk 22%). At the same time, Drudge Report is blaring the headline now: "Obama Large in Some Exit Polls," with no further details. Added, ABCNEWS.com story on the subject.

And as we all know, exit polls have proven misleading in previous elections.

UPDATE at 6:52 p.m. ET: Drudge is reporting the following exit poll data and warning, "Exit numbers early and do not represent actual votes":

OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26... Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...

CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31... Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41...



obama, nj | 02.04.08


Six minutes from yesterday's Obama rally at the Meadowlands in New Jersey.
[photography by eugene hernandez]



vote | progress

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Images by Shepard Fairey, via Obey Giant.



election day | who, what, when, where...

From the League of Women Voters Education Fund (LWVEF) a "one-stop-shop" for election related information, including where to vote and more: VOTE411.org.



and (the debate) winner is?

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photo today via The New York Times

How exciting that tonight on CNN we saw the next president of the United States on stage at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood. People looking for a K.O. during the debate were probably disappointed, but that's OK. Both Obama and Clinton did a great job respectfully answering the questions, while proving that its time for a Democrat to takeover the White House. So, whichever Democrat gets the nomination and then is elected in November, ultimately we're all going to win.



obama and cheney, related

If Barack Obama becomes President of the U.S., he will head to the White House following in the footsteps of a distant relative, Dick Cheney.

Somehow I missed the stories when they emerged back in October. As Lynne Cheney's research revealed at the time, 'Obama is distantly related to Mareen Duvall, whose son Samuel married the granddaughter of Mr Cheney's ancestor, also called Richard Cheney...'



clinton fatigue

An industry friend who admits. "I need to have the courage of my convictions and our generation needs to make politics personal," sent out the following email to friends over the weekend. Here it is, anonymously:

-----

Hi,

I have never in my life sent out a group email on the subject of politics. I have never in my life, however, felt so betrayed by a Democratic leader as I do by Bill Clinton today. (I wondered if I should say "Bill" or "Hillary" or "Billary" or whatever, but let's face it, Bill is running the dirty politics these days and they've made clear this week that they're interchangeable.)

I won't list all of Bill's offensive and racist comments and strategic moves of the last week. At the end of the day what he has done is sell his African-American "brothers and sisters" down the river without looking back and broken a lot of hearts- of every race- along the way. I can no longer in good faith vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary as she has obviously endorsed and encouraged Bill's tactics. I was truly on the fence (leaning towards Hillary) these last few months. But in the last weeks not only have the Cintons totally repelled me but Obama has impressed me as a man who is strong, wise, sharp, and most importantly, very comfortable and confident in his own skin. This man has true leadership skills that go beyond a message of "hope." He has character. This week Hillary- and Bill- proved to me that they have none. My heart is broken and my vote, my money, and my efforts are going to Obama.

Thanks for reading this.



change

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On the first of many election nights (leading up to November 4, 2008), the key word was "change" and the few hundred thousand people who voted opted for Obama and Huckabee as their agents. Iowa is a tiny state, but it offers an interesting snapshot and tonight's results are historic, no matter who is elected president of the U.S. in 11 months. Just how historic remains to be seen. Some quick observations from the sofa:

-- Interesting that Iowa is 94.6% white, according to recent data.

-- Hillary declared victory...for Democrats, in a strange speech during which her husband looked pretty down most of the time. She came in third.

-- Barack Obama sounded more like a Clinton than his rival, optimistically talking about "hope." His stirring, emotional speech was pretty amazing.

-- Obama beat Clinton among women voters, according to CNN.

-- CNN also says that younger Democrat voters went with Obama, while older ones sides with Hillary.

-- Both McCain and Giuliani didn't really campaign in Iowa, yet McCain seems even stronger with his 13% to Rudy's 3%.

-- Dodd and Biden are apparently already dropping out and their votes are likely to go to Obama and Edwards.

-- Is it true that many would be Obama supporters were in the closet, just waiting for him to win something so they could step out and declare their support?

1 down and about 28 more to go between now and February 5th, when things might be a lot clearer.



facebook | status updates

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A snapshot from my Facebook "Status Updates" page few moments ago, friends clearly engaged with Iowa's election night...



in nyc | obama

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Thursday may be a telling day for presidential candidate Barack Obama. After dropping by "The View," he'll be staging a free rally in Washington Square Park that organizers are reportedly hoping will top large outdoor rallies in other cities. The size of the crowd should be a good indication of his popularity amidst growing sentinement that his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton has all but sewn up the nomination. If he can draw a massive crowd of supporters in Clinton's backyard, would that start to turn the tide? And if he can't, is it a sign that his interest in his campaign in waning?



in socal | mirthala salinas

In La Jolla this afternoon, one topic has dominated our beachside chatter... namely, today's revelation that L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has been having a longterm affair with Telemundo newscaster Mirthala Salinas, who was reporting on the Mayor early on in their relationship that began as many as 18 months ago.



girlfriend's got a crush...on Obama!

The latest clip to rock the "YouTube election" of '08, posted for the first time yesterday, features a young woman with the hots for Barack Obama.



geffen v. clinton v. obama

obamaSMcap.jpgIts Oscar week here in Southern California, but as Maureen Dowd notes in her NY Times column today, Hollywood has been buzzing this week about Barack Obama, the candidate that Dreamworks trio Geffen, Spielberg, and Katzenberg backed at a million dollar LA fundraiser last night.

Hillary Clinton is apparently unhappy about the support and she's also not pleased by comments from Geffen to Dowd saying, "I don't think that another incredibly polarizing figure, no matter how smart she is and no matter how ambitious she is -- and God knows, is there anybody more ambitious than Hillary Clinton? -- can bring the country together." Geffen added, in the comments to Dowd, "Obama is inspirational, and he's not from the Bush royal family or the Clinton royal family. Americans are dying every day in Iraq. And I'm tired of hearing James Carville on television."

clintonSMpic.jpgHillary's reps lashed back today, saying that Geffen is on Obama's campaign team and I just received a statement from Geffen's camp, setting the record straight:

"Despite reports to the contrary, I am not the Campaign Finance Chair and have no formal role in the Obama campaign, nor will I, other than to continue to offer my strongest possible personal support for his candidacy. My comments, which were quoted accurately by Maureen Dowd, reflect solely my personal beliefs regarding the Clintons. Thank You."


obama: "I stand before you today to announce my candidacy for President of the United States."

BT15660-1.jpgIn Springfield, IL about an hour ago, Barack Obama officially declared his candidacy for U.S. president text of the speech:

In the shadow of the Old State Capitol, where Lincoln once called on a divided house to stand together, where common hopes and common dreams still, I stand before you today to announce my candidacy for President of the United States.

I recognize there is a certain presumptuousness - a certain audacity - to this announcement. I know I haven't spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington. But I've been there long enough to know that the ways of Washington must change.



climate change

As reported in The New York Times today:

“Feb. 2 will be remembered as the date when uncertainty was removed as to whether humans had anything to do with climate change on this planet. The evidence is on the table.”


byrd (and obama)

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Was anyone else just watching CNN's coverage of the swearing in of the new U.S. Congress. That's senior member Robert Byrd just as he was sworn in by VP Dick Cheney...Byrd's waving his fist in victory caused Cheney to chuckle slightly before he shook the Senator's hand. I chuckled as well when I snapped this photo with my camera phone...

Interestingly, last night I was just reading a bit about Byrd in Barack Obama's book, The Audacity of Hope. In the book, Obama recalled from his first meeting with Byrd one year ago:

He told me I would do well in the Senate but that I shouldn't be in too much of a rush--so many senators today became fixated on the White House, not understanding that in the constitutional design it was the Senate that was supreme, the heart and soul of the Republic.



hussein

obamaSMcap.jpgAt dinner last night, a few people were buzzing about the recent revelation that likely presidential candidate (and U.S. senator) Barack Obama's middle name is "Hussein." While his full name, Barack Hussein Obama, Jr., has apparently been public knowledge for some time (Maureen Dowd also wrote about it recently), a friend told me that FOX News was chattering about his middle name earlier this week, and the other day the Chicago Sun-Times weighed in with a report. According to the piece, Obama's Kenyan father was born into the Muslim faith, but later strayed, and it emphasizes that the U.S. Senator is Christian. DIscussing the issue last night with friends, I wondered if his middle name will become a greater campaign issue than his mixed race heritage (and the fact that he is the only African American currently in the U.S. senate)...no matter, as of now he has my vote.



fox news, tonight

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keith hernandez is a republican

I am still receiving Republican fundraising calls for former New York Met Keith Hernandez on my home phone line. While he has certainly never lived in this Hell's Kitchen building, the apparently conservative athlete did live on 49th St. (on the east side). So, every so often, someone calls to thank me for my donations to the Republican party and then asks for more...after a pause to recover from the shock of hearing such words spoken to me, I typically explain that I am not Keith Hernandez, or I just angrily hang up all together. While Keith and I may share a last name and a New York City street, we certainly are not in sync politically.

As it turns out Keith recently sold his 2,000 square foot 49th St. place for $2 million. I wonder if its new occupants receive calls for me?



mccain v. clinton(s)

Welcome to the start of the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign as potential candidates McCain and Clinton square off over North Korea...including McCain's critique of President Clinton's handling of North Korea when he was in office, in response to criticism of the Bush administration by Senator Clinton...



presidential "intelligence"

noWsm.jpgPresident Bush should have come clean about pre-war intelligence well over a year ago, when pressed on the matter prior to his election to a second term. Today in a speech he finally admitted:

"It is true that much of the intelligence turned out to be wrong. As president I am responsible for the decision to go into Iraq...And I'm also responsible for fixing what went wrong by reforming our intelligence capabilities. And we're doing just that."


exit, stage left...

bushdoor.jpgBush found himself lacking an exit strategy Sunday after trying to quickly duck out of an uncomfortable press conference in China, as the Washington Post explained:

Irked by a reporter who told him he seemed to be "off his game" at a Beijing public appearance, President George W. Bush sought to make a hasty exit from a news conference but was thwarted by locked doors.

The video of the incident is particulary hilarious.



Excuse Me?

I just got a call at home to attend some sort of special fundraiser event with Dick Cheney, and Sean Hannity of Fox News. When I asked the woman calling how she got my name and number, she explained to be that I had "shown interest in the Republican Party in the past." I explained to her that was impossible.

Not in this lifetime...



Hillary v. Condi

0060839139.jpgOn the plane back from the UK today, I read an excerpt (in The Observer) from "Condi vs. Hillary," the new book by former Clinton administration insider Dick Morris (and Eileen McGann). In the book, the authors write that only one person stands in the way of Hillary Clinton being elected president in 2008:

As of this moment, there is no doubt that Hillary Clinton is on a virtually uncontested trajectory to win the Democratic nomination and, very likely, the 2008 election. She has no serious opposition in her party. The order of presidential succession from 1992 through 2008, in other words, may well become Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton.
But her victory is not inevitable. There is one, and only one, figure in America who can stop Hillary Clinton: Secretary of State Condoleezza 'Condi' Rice. Among all of the possible Republican candidates for President, Condi alone could win the nomination, defeat Hillary and derail a third Clinton administration.


A "desperate S O S"

Mayor C. Ray Nagin from New Orleans, begging for more help and calling for immediate action:

New Orleans Mayor, in Tears, Blasts Washington's Response

And here's the emotional audio file of the interview.



Don't Worry Mr. Bush...

bushplane.jpgIn an open letter to President Bush today, Michael Moore asks the president pointedly: Where are the helicopters? Where is the National Guard? Where was the Army Corps of Engineers? He's fishing for an obvious answer...

And then he adds, sharply:

There will be those who will try to politicize this tragedy and try to use it against you. Just have your people keep pointing that out. Respond to nothing. Even those pesky scientists who predicted this would happen because the water in the Gulf of Mexico is getting hotter and hotter making a storm like this inevitable. Ignore them and all their global warming Chicken Littles. There is nothing unusual about a hurricane that was so wide it would be like having one F-4 tornado that stretched from New York to Cleveland.

No, Mr. Bush, you just stay the course. It's not your fault that 30 percent of New Orleans lives in poverty or that tens of thousands had no transportation to get out of town. C'mon, they're black! I mean, it's not like this happened to Kennebunkport. Can you imagine leaving white people on their roofs for five days? Don't make me laugh! Race has nothing -- NOTHING -- to do with this!

Included on Moore's site is the AP photo pictured above, meant to show Bush's concern as he surveyed hurricane damage in Air Force One earlier this week...is anyone else reminded of the images taken back on 9/11/01 when he was told, "America is under attack..."



NAT'L GEO, Oct. '04: "Gone With The Water"

A National Geographic Magazine article from October of last year warned of the disastrous impact a killer hurricane would have on New Orleans...

The Federal Emergency Management Agency lists a hurricane strike on New Orleans as one of the most dire threats to the nation, up there with a large earthquake in California or a terrorist attack on New York City. Even the Red Cross no longer opens hurricane shelters in the city, claiming the risk to its workers is too great.


Where was FEMA? Where was the government?

neworleansSM.jpgIn a piece posted tonight on the New York Times website, officials in New Orleans offer blunt criticism of the way the post-hurricane situation is being handled. The local police superintendent said the U.S. government took too long to react, and another official was even more blunt:

Col. Terry Ebbert, director of homeland security for New Orleans, concurred and he was particularly pungent in his criticism. Asserting that the whole recovery operation had been "carried on the backs of the little guys for four goddamn days," he said that "the rest of the goddamn nation can't get us any resources for security."

"We are like little birds with our mouths open and you don't have to be very smart to know where to drop the worm," Colonel Ebbert said. "It's criminal within the confines of the United States that within one hour of the hurricane they weren't force-feeding us. It's like FEMA has never been to a hurricane."

[Image via Yahoo News/Reuters.]



Extremist Religious Figure Calls For Killing Of Elected Leader

robertson10001.jpgThe headline says it all, and its not a radical Islamist calling for the death of a U.S. president, its Pat Robertson remarking that the U.S. should murder Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, saying Monday on his '700 Club' program: "If he thinks we're trying to assassinate him, I think that we really ought to go ahead and do it...it's a whole lot cheaper than starting a war."

What I want to know is, if the FCC can come down hard on the companies that broadcast Howard Stern or the live flash of Janet Jackson's breast, shouldn't those who broadcast Robertson's program be held equally accountable? (In this case its Disney-owned ABC Family that airs the CBN program -- gee, and Disney thought it had a problem with Michael Moore...)

Or is the whole thing just cooked up to distract us from focusing on the situation in Iraq...



V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N.

noWsm.jpgFrom the Washington Post tomorrow:

HEADLINE: Vacationing Bush Poised to Set a Record
SUBHEAD: With Long Sojourn at Ranch, President on His Way to Surpassing Reagan's Total

President Bush is getting the kind of break most Americans can only dream of -- nearly five weeks away from the office, loaded with vacation time.

The president departed Tuesday for his longest stretch yet away from the White House, arriving at his Crawford ranch in the evening for a stretch of clearing brush, visiting with family and friends, and tending to some outside-the-Beltway politics. By historical standards, it is the longest presidential retreat in at least 36 years.



The 'War On Terror' is Over!

In case you missed it, the term "war on terror" is apparently no more. The Bush administration has quietly retired the term in favor of the less marketable "struggle against violent extremism." While it may not roll off the tongue as easily, avoiding the term "war" apparently counters the ultimate expectation that we are going to "win" swiftly. A struggle sounds like something that should go on for a long time, and given the increase in recent terrorism in the U.K., Egypt, and of course Iraq, Bush officials clearly needed to backtrack. I'd imagine focus groups and pollsters were employed to get just the right language for the new catchphrase....

"We need to dispute both the gloomy vision and offer a positive alternative," National Security Advisor Steven Hadley was quoted as saying yesterday, in the New York Times



Why Tony Kaufman Rocks...

Ya gotta love Anthony Kaufman -- writer for indieWIRE, Variety, the Voice, and many others -- and here's why. In a post about a recent Sundance Institute fundraiser that honored an exec from Starbucks, he whipped out a truly great line:

Ironic that there's no mention of the fact that Starbucks is a predatory multinational corporation that has destroyed cultural diversity, resisted unionizing and contributed to the mallification of the world. Now that's risky!


DAILY MIRROR: DOH! 4 More Years of Dubya

The cover of today's Daily Mirror in London:

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Red and Blue

Talk of a mandate and a decisive victory belies the distinctly divided nature of this country -- last night there was a massive opposition to President Bush. The Republicans are boasting that Bush received more votes (59 million) than any other U.S. President in history, but so did John Kerry. No losing candidate ever earned that much support in an election. In fact, John Kerry's 55.5 million votes also tops any other U.S. President in history, including Ronald Reagan's 54.4 million votes in 1984.

That 55 million is a significant force to be reckoned with. Once engaged, impassioned Blue voters (who were so emotionally invested in this election) recover from the sadness and disappointment they are feeling today, the Red voters (and the President) will find that the current talk of morals does not really explain the cultural, social, and even geographic divide evidenced inside the red and blue electoral college map.

Blue voters need to think about what it means to be the opposition, and then maintain an active, vocal role for four more years.



vote

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Doing the Math

The latest New York Times electoral map leaves only five states as toss-ups tonight: Florida, Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Wisconsin. That gives Kerry a projected 242 and Bush 227. Winning just Ohio (20) and Wisconsin (10) from that group would give Kerry 272 electoral votes.



Slate.com Estimate...a tie

Based on the tonight's 11 p.m. estimate on Slate.com, the race is a tie, 269 - 269 in the electoral college:

We haven't been this excited in days. The final evening's batch of polls has come out, and we're moving nothing! What a relief after the craziness of the last 24 hours. Based on the closeness of the evidence, the three states most likely to shift tomorrow are Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. If Florida stays put and Wisconsin or New Mexico moves, Kerry wins. Otherwise, Bush wins. It's that simpleassuming, of course, that no other state surprises us


"One Day Left" by Michael Moore

Friends,

This is it. ONE DAY LEFT. There are many things Id like to say. Ive been on the road getting out the vote for 51 straight days so I havent had much time to write. So Ive put together a bunch of notes to various groups all in this one letter. Please feel free to copy and send whatever portions are appropriate to your friends and family as you spend these last 24 hours trying to convince whomever you can to show up and vote for John Kerry.

Here are my final words

» Continue reading ""One Day Left" by Michael Moore"


The latest Zogby poll...tied again

For Reuters, John Whitesides reports on this morning's new Zogby poll:

Kerry and Bush were deadlocked at 48 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, which included one day of polling taken after the airing of a videotape from Osama bin Laden (news - web sites). Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent on Saturday.

Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided as Bush and Kerry scour about 10 remaining battleground states to find the 270 electoral votes they need to win on Tuesday.

"Each man has consolidated his own base," pollster John Zogby said.

"Bush has good leads in the red states, among investors, and among Republicans, born-again Christians, men and married voters," he said. "Kerry has a solid lead in the blue states and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters and singles."