I ran into Lance Black on Saturday evening at the IFC post-Spirits bash. He was standing in a very small group, and the iW crew spent some time chatting with him and congratulating him on how far he’d come. I wished him the best over the next 24 hours and said that I hoped he was able to enjoy the ride. He seemed to be taking it all in stride. And then I started thinking about a moment in Berlin the week before, when I ran into Lance at a bar. He made a good natured quip about all the attention he’d been getting, adding that soon enough people would move on and forget about him. And he seemed ok with that.
But then last night he made a speech that resonated with so many people. Numerous friends have mentioned it to me over the past 12 hours or so. It will not be quickly forgotten. (Transcript via AMPAS):
“Oh my God. This was, um, this was not an easy film to make. First off, I have to thank Cleve Jones and Anne Kronenberg and all the real-life people who shared their stories with me. And, um, Gus Van Sant, Sean Penn, Emile Hirsch, Josh Brolin, James Franco and our entire cast, my producers Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, everyone at Groundswell and Focus for taking on the challenge of telling this life-saving story.
When I was 13 years old, my beautiful mother and my father moved me from a conservative Mormon home in San Antonio, Texas to California, and I heard the story of Harvey Milk. And it gave me hope. It gave me the hope to live my life. It gave me the hope one day I could live my life openly as who I am and then maybe even I could even fall in love and one day get married.
Obviously you can’t really predict Oscar night upsets, that’s why they’re called surprises. So, with that in mind here’s ten to watch for (and why). Some, all, or none of the following may actually happen tonight, but its fun to pretend…
Picture: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
LOGIC: “Slumdog” is such a lock that it’s actually not a lock…“Forrest Gump” 2 mania has swept the Academy and no one picked up on it. Congrats “Ben Button.” At this point, this would be a huge shock.
Director: Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
LOGIC: Van Sant is beloved for his maverick tendencies and finally get’s the sort of mainstream accolade he’s deserved for years now. It’s about time. How great would that moment be?!
Actress: Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
LOGIC: I’ve heard more than once this week in LA that Melissa Leo winning the Oscar will be one of the big shocks of the night. One friend said that, as with the 1950 Oscar race for best actress when veterans Bette Davis i(“All About Eve”) and Gloria Swanson (“Sunset Boulevard”), Leo will pull a Judy Holliday (“Born Yesterday”) and win on her first nomination. Leo was asked about her chances backstage at the Spirit Awards last night and said that it will be Meryl or Kate.
Actor: Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
LOGIC: Jenkins is beloved in this town, Penn and Rourke are not. Or so goes the theory… Imagine the ovation!
Supporting actress: Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
LOGIC: The win for “My Cousin Vinny” proved that Marisa Tomei was popular in the industry, here she gets a second Oscar for a meatier role. This would be almost as shocking as her first win.
Supporting actor: Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road”
LOGIC: Honor the new guy for his standout performance in a nearly ignored film, at the expense of a beloved late actor. Come on, do it!
Best original screenplay: Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”
LOGIC: The Academy clearly liked this movie, what better way to honor it than with a screenplay prize, which typically goes to a new face. What a way to salute indie filmmaking.
Adapted screenplay: David Hare, “The Reader”
LOGIC: The movie’s inclusion in so many prominent categories clearly caught a lot of folks by surprise, but the only place it really draws votes is for its script. Harvey’s bit moment?
Foreign language: “Departures” (Japan)
LOGIC: “Bashir” is politically problematic for some, and animated, which turns off many members, while “The Class” barely got into the list to begin with. “Departures” hasn’t screened much, but when it has, it’s been a hit. New York industry types would be shocked, but what a feather in the cap of LA based Regent.
Documentary: “The Garden”
LOGIC: The frontrunners faded and this well told LA story about activism and hope resonated with those who actually watched the movies. As terrific as the movie is, this would be even more surprising than “Departures” getting an Oscar.
Photos from the past few days of Spirit Awards festivities. Think of this as a blog post-in-progress, because I still need to work on the captions. (At the same time, I’m kinda liking the shots without any words…)
[photos by eugene hernandez]
I recall detecting a rather mellow vibe in the tent at the Spirit Awards last night, as the show hit its final half hour. It was a bit warm in there, folks seemed rather quiet.
And then Mickey Rourke won, getting the crowd on its feet for the only extended ovation of the day. His speech, via YouTube above, had us rolling with laughter and quoting choice lines the rest of the night. Apparently, Rourke didn’t come back stage to talk to the press after the show, perhaps it was decided that he said enough on stage? At the IFC after party, Eric Roberts was a star, posing for photos with guests…
Folks are hoping that Rourke wins tonight at the Oscars to really shake up the telecast!
Isn’t it crazy that Kate Winslet will win her first Oscar for “The Reader.” Must have been a surprising morning at the Winslet-Mendes household this morning. Likewise at the home or office of Scott Rudin, who must have been the most shocked at the strong performance of “The Reader.” A big disappointment is the omission of Sally Hawkins for best actress, while I was happy to see “Frozen River” get a screenplay nod.
My full list of rankings for each Oscar category will be posted on Movie City News later today, but here’s my current list of predicted winners, as of this morning. Sadly, at this moment I’m expecting a strong showing for Ben Button on Oscar night. I’m predicting 7 Oscars for Gump II.
Picture: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Director: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” David Fincher
Actor: Sean Penn in “Milk”
Supporting actor: Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight”
Actress: Kate Winslet in “The Reader”
Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Animated feature: “WALL-E”
Animated short film: “Presto” action short film: “Spielzeugland (Toyland)”
Adapted screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Original screenplay: “Milk”
Art direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Cinematography: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Costume design: “The Duchess”
Documentary feature: “Man on Wire”
Documentary short subject: “The Conscience of Nhem En”
Film editing: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Foreign language film of the year: “Waltz with Bashir”
Makeup: “The Dark Knight”
Original score: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Original song: “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E”
Sound editing: “The Dark Knight”
Sound mixing: “The Dark Knight”
Visual effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
I am trying to get fellow Oscar geeks Peter Knegt and Keaton Kail to join me in occasional blog prognosticating in the weeks leading up to Oscar night, so with that in mind Peter’s picks are on his blog, while Keaton’s predictions are on his.
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