Nate Silver, proprietor of FiveThirtyEight, calls the Oscars using his patented blend of lies, damn lies, statistics and logistic regression.
All kidding aside, Nate pretty much nailed the Presidential election and most of the Senate races. This isn't a bad place to start for those working on their office Oscar pools.
February 20, 2009 4:37 AMReply
Nate Silver's model is a bit more sophisticated than that, which was demonstrated by his success during the democratic primaries (accuracy which far outperformed most pollsters).Of course, it's easier to say he's the same as the other guys when it comes to the general election, when states are winner-take-all. Additionally, for all the nailbiting done on the Democratic side, you didn't need to be a rocket scientist to bet on Obama.In summation, Nate Silver is not as hackish as you suggest, and unless you're a Pollster junkie (defensible) I suggest you stop reading RCP.
February 17, 2009 10:20 AMReply
Whoa there. To be clear, the polls were what accurately predicted the election. All Silver did was aggregate them and run a regression analysis, something plenty of other sites have been doing for quite a while now. Most of his thumb-on-the scale weightings were not only misconceived attempts to curve house effects, but they actually made his predictions worse.Just throwing that out there.