Oscar 2012 Predictions? Upsets? Hopes? Let's Talk...

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by Tambay A. Obenson
January 30, 2012 2:47 PM
15 Comments
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Step right up folks... place ya bets... anyone bold enough to make their Oscar predictions this early? Well... it's not THAT early, and we know what the short list of nominees in every category looks like, as well as what names and titles have been cleaning up in past awards ceremonies that really matter.

So, probably not a tough call to make in the major categories - Best Film, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

This may be one of the most predictable Oscars ever! I'm hoping that there's a major upset or surprise or two; something that few of us actually saw coming. I have no idea what that would be, but I wouldn't complain if say the incredibly over-rated silent film The Artist didn't win a single award.

Now THAT would be shocking! But it'll put a smile on my face too.

What else might decrease the predictability of the event?

The Best actor race seems like it's likely down to George Clooney (The Descendants, which I actually haven't seen; it just doesn't rope me in) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist); how about shocking the world and giving it to Gary Oldman, who, as I learned, is being nominated for his VERY FIRST Academy Award! Can you believe that? Gary Oldman, one of the premiere thespians of our time, has done countless films, and has never been nominated for an Oscar, ever? Maybe he just hasn't done anything that's gotten as much Academy awareness and praise as Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

Best Actress will likely go to either Viola Davis or Meryl Streep. I was really surprised to see Rooney Mara nominated for her performance in Girl With The Dragon Tattoo; not that she didn't do a good job with the role, but I felt like the Academy was reaching a bit there; and if they were reaching, I would have been far more impressed if they went with someone like Adepero Oduye for her work in Pariah. Obviously I'm biased :) But her performance WAS strong in that film.

Best Supporting Actor is likely Christopher Plummer's to lose for Beginners, which I haven't yet seen either.

Best Supporting Actress is also likely Octavia Spencer's to lose. A shocking upset would be selecting Melissa McCarthy (the surprisingly funny and entertaining Bridesmaids; yeah, I didn't think I'd like it, but I actually did).

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist is your probable Best Director winner. I say eff it, and give it to Woody Allen instead for Midnight in Paris... just because. He last won it in 1977 for Annie Hall. Mignight In Paris is no Annie Hall, but I'll take anything over The Artist, and I have a soft-spot for Woody (despite that thing that he did back when), so why not :)

Best Original Screenplay... yup, The Artist again; but the Academy could shock the world and give it to Margin Call instead, which I actually liked, but didn't love. Or, a much stronger film than any of those 2 is A Separation, which really should get the trophy in that category.

And lastly, Best Adapted Screenplay; This might be the one award that Moneyball wins the entire evening; and I'd actually be ok with that, thanks to Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian.

Yes, there are other categories, but I'm going to stop with just these 8 categories... feel free to mention others in your comments if you wish.

The Academy Awards ceremony is on Sunday, February 26, 2012.

Soooo... all that said, who are your Oscar winners for this year? Or instead, who would you LIKE to see win, rather than who you think WILL win? Or just general comments about the nominees... whatever makes you happy.

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15 Comments

  • ssmuggle | February 20, 2012 7:14 PMReply

    I haven't seen most of the nominations, but I am really hoping that Hugo gets a lot of awards! It was one of the best movies I have ever seen. Though that could be that I just love the movies in general and it really was like a love letter to cinema itself. Anyways, I also think that Martin Scorsese is a great director! So yes, I endorse Hugo for all 11 nominations.

  • Monica S | February 15, 2012 4:19 PMReply

    If you are interested in making some predictions for this years Academy Award's winners check out http://getinmedia.com/contest We are having a predict and win contest for the 2012 Academy Awards. The winner will receive $100 Fandango.com gift card.

  • streeper4life | February 1, 2012 1:34 PMReply

    29 years people.....29 YEARS....IF MERYL DOES NOT WIN THIS YEAR THERE WILL BE CHAOS IN THE STREETS....DON'T MESS IT UP AGAIN ACADEMY!

  • spark | February 3, 2012 12:24 PM

    And not to mention that this year SHE REALY DESERVES IT.

  • Mecca | January 31, 2012 2:11 PMReply

    I never saw "The Artist" so I can't make a comment. But I'm with you on that one Tambay. Give Oldman an Oscar ALREADY!

  • MOE | January 31, 2012 10:30 AMReply

    JEAN DUJARDIN ALL THE WAY--FOR SOMEONE WHO HAD NO LINES, THIS WAS IMPRESSIVE ACTING FROM START TO FINISH. CLOONEY IS BORING.

    GIVE IT TO MERYL FOR HER ALWAYS IMPRESSIVE BODY OF WORK.

  • Is This Real Life? | January 30, 2012 10:47 PMReply

    Y'all seriously need to stop with this PARIAH delusion. I mean every other post is Dees Rees this and PARIAH that. Really, though? It was OK. That's it. Just OK. Rees was not robbed and neither was Adepero Oduye. I'm sure they'll both go on to do wonderful things, but PARIAH was not it. So just please, for the love of God, stop plugging it like it's the best black indie movie since DO THE RIGHT THING because you're just setting people up for a huge disappointment. Thank you.

  • f7 | January 30, 2012 10:15 PMReply

    TAMBAY , Rooney Mara didn't deserve her Oscar nomination. She was just emulating Noomi Rapace's performance in those first three movies.

  • ssmuggle | February 20, 2012 7:11 PM

    They weren't the first three films. They are the original ones. Ours is just a different take on the books.

  • Conceited Nominee | January 30, 2012 8:28 PMReply

    Michelle Williams sat there EXPECTING TO WIN another award. Viola more than deserved to win. If that Marilyn movie was based on any truth and a much better actress played her I would have liked the actress to win and the Marilyn movie but that is not the case here.

  • KeepingITReal | January 30, 2012 10:47 PM

    Jessica Chastain would have made a better Marilyn.

  • f7 | January 30, 2012 10:12 PM

    CONCEITED NOMINEE , thank you. I concur. I am so tired of the mainstream media overrating Michelle Williams. I truly believe she continues to receive a big push because of her past relationship with Heath Ledger. Not one second did I believe Michelle was Marilyn Monroe. Also, I am so tired of her painfully shy and fragile act . That is why she is only decent in female roles that are profoundly insecure, bashful, and self-loathing.

  • Josh | January 30, 2012 6:55 PMReply

    I thought The Artist was a lot of fun. I will root for it in all of its categories. I think it gets Best Picture Director and Best Actor. Spencer and Davis will win. But while watching The Help I kept waiting for the KKK to firebomb every store selling the book.

  • Cordell | January 30, 2012 3:58 PMReply

    Picture: The Artist (My nominees would've been: The Help, Attack the Block, Pariah, Moneyball, The Descendants, Hugo, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids & The Artist)

    Director: Michael Hazanavicius- The Artist (My nominees would be Steve McQueen- Shame, Dee Rees- Pariah, Michael Hazanavicius- The Artist, Alexander Payne- The Descendants & Martin Scorsese- Hugo)

    Actor: Clooney- The Descendants (My nominees: Brad Pitt- Moneyball, Michael Fassebender- Shame, John Boyega- Attack the Block, George Clooney- The Descendants & Demian Bichir- A Better Life)

    Actress: Viola Davis- The Help (My nominees: Rooney Mara- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Viola Davis- The Help, Adepeo Oduye- Pariah, Salli Richardson-Whiftfield- I Will Follow & Tilda Swinton- We Need to Talk About Kevin)

    Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (My nominees: Charles Parnell- Pariah, Nick Nolte- Warrior, Andy Serkis- Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Albert Brooks- Drive & Christopher Plummer- Beginners)

    Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer- The Help (My nominees: Kim Wayans- Pariah, Octavia Spencer- The Help, Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids, Nia Long- Mooz-lum & Jessica Chastain- The Help)

  • KeepingItReal | January 30, 2012 3:40 PMReply

    Adepero Oduye wouldn't stand a chance against Viola or Meryl! Let's be real. I think her time will come soon though. She gives that Whoopi Goldberg vibe (a good vine to have btw.) If a biopic is ever done on Whoopi she is my choice to play to Goldberg.

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