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Guess The Opening Weekend Box Office Take For "Think Like A Man" & Win Amazon Gift Cert.

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by Tambay A. Obenson
April 18, 2012 4:11 PM
69 Comments
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As already noted, box office expectations appear to be high for the upcoming ensemble comedy, Think Like A Man, which opens in theaters 2 days from today, April 20, 2012

The film reportedly received record-setting test-screening scores, almost off the charts - the highest test scoring film in the history of Sony Screen Gems, the film's distributor.

And producer Will Packer of Rainforest Films says that it's the company's best work to date.

There has also been chatter about the film's cross-over potential.

So just how well we can expect the film to do at the box office on opening weekend? That's where you come in.

What we do know is that the film will open on 1800 screens - the second highest number of screens of all films opening this weekend - 1200 screens less than the film opening on the highest number of screens, The Lucky One which stars Zac Efron (based on a Nicholas Sparks book).

That's a significant number, and will likely be the difference maker that weekend, in the battle for the #1 spot.

You'll recall that in a previous post, I suggested that Think Like A Man could open at number 1, with The Lucky One being its main competition; but at the time, theater counts weren't yet available. And now that I have them, I'd say that it'll probably open at #2; unless The Lucky One turns out to be a mega flop, which I'm guessing it won't be, given the star, the fact that it's based on a work by a popular author whose past works have also been adapted to film, and have done well; and finally, taking into consideration today's news that there'll be a 1200 screen difference between both films, favoring the latter.

The the only other film opening WIDE on this April 20th weekend is a G-rated Disney documentary titled Chimpanzees, which is for the family, so if parents feel like taking their kids to see this, it could also do well. But when was the last time a documentary opened at number 1 on any weekend? Probably in 2004, when Michael Moore's incendiary Fahrenheit 9/11 opened with over $23 million. However, different subject, different time altogether. 

And Chimpanzees is opening on 300 fewer screens than Think Like A Man; so, close enough that, if families turn out heavily to see the doc, it could very well slip past the latter film. 

And let's not forget that The Hunger Games is still very much a factor in this weekend's race. It's been strong, and continues to be; so who knows where it'll fall...

The high audience test scores aside, Think Like A Man has a lot going for it, notably the fact that it's based on a best-selling book, the author of that book has a large following and, I'm sure, will push his fans to go see the film adaptation; the marketing machine behind it has been quite active for a few months already; and as Vanessa posted some days ago, there's a strong awareness of the film with almost 85 percent of black audiences knowing about it, and a whopping 70 percent having “definite interest” in seeing it.

So I expect that group to go out in force on opening weekend. 

The Rainforest guys have got a pretty good track record with their last few theatrically released films - Obsessed shocked the world and opened at $28 million, and went onto make close to $70 million; before that, This Christmas opened at $18 million, and made $50 in total; and prior to that, Stomp The Yard opened at $21 million and ended up with a $61 million box office take. Finally, Takers opened at just over $20 million, and grossed almost $60 million.

So, on average, their films are raking in about $60 million in ticket sales, with their budgets growing with from film to film. Stomp The Yard & This Christmas had estimated budgets of $13 million; Obsessed's tab was about $20 million; and Takers tops them all at $32 million. I don't know what the budget for Think Like A Man is yet.

April 20 is 2 days from today, so let's see how things shake out.

And without further ado, it's time for another installment of "Guess The Opening Weekend Box Office Numbers" competition.

You know the deal... post a comment with your guess for how much money you believe Think Like A Man will make on its opening weekend; just one comment per person. And when you post, be sure to scroll through the page to make sure no one else has guessed your number, because only one person can win this. No ties. If two people guess the same figure, and it happens to be the winning number, the person who posted their response first will win the prize. 

The person who guesses the closest to the actual box office figures, when they are announced on Monday, WITHOUT GOING OVER, will win a $50 gift certificate from Amazon.com.

You have until tomorrow, Thursday, April 19th, at 11:59pm EST to post your guesses.

Got it? Good! Have at it!

And lastly, I'd be remiss if I didn't also mention that the Bob Marley documentary which we've covered quite a bit, also opens next week Friday; but in limited release on 45 screens around the country. But I expect per-screen averages for that will be solid.

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69 Comments

  • ZANACHE | April 23, 2012 2:11 AMReply

    i think this movie is going to make about 72million or at least about 50milion.

  • zanache | April 23, 2012 2:07 AMReply

    THINK LIKE A MAN IS MY MOTHERS FAVORITE MOVIE. SHE LOVES HER SOME UNCLE STEVE AND NEPHEW TOMMY. I COULDN'T EVEN WATCH THE MOVIE WITH OUT HER BURSTING INTO LAUGHTER. BUT ANYWAYS I HOPE THIS IS GOING TO BE THE MOST BEST SELLING MOVIE THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Nakisha | April 22, 2012 7:03 PMReply

    Ummmmmmmmm. I'm guessing like 50 mil......... Esay!

  • Miles Maker | April 21, 2012 12:55 PMReply

    Performance predictions are being tossed around like a roulette table at Vegas considering all the wrong factors and points of reference. Speculate and analyze less. LISTEN MORE. Social media is about listening, and I manage more than 12 Twitter accounts and 12 Facebook pages and groups that talk yes but LISTEN MORE to all sorts of people from accounts with 5 friends & followers to those with 5mil+. Sustained conversation is good--the kind of conversations happening around THINK LIKE A MAN are even better and they've been sustained for weeks. There's also the track record to consider here if you're gonna analyze effectively. If you're not familiar with Liquid Soul Media, finish your homework. Your homework might also remind you Rainforest Films have been doing this since TROIS. Think STOMP THE YARD, THIS CHRISTMAS, OBSESSED, TAKERS--all box office anomalies that exceeded box office expectations against stiff competition, so let's all be inspired by THIS: on the first day THINK LIKE A MAN crushes THE LUCKY ONE by $8mil in 1,044 fewer theaters. Warner Bros. is lazy & disconnected studio. People of color are leveling the playing field with engaging activity in a war of ads & publicity vs social (contextual) influence. Hollywood spends even more for the same result while WE can empower our people to sell our movies.

  • David L. "Money Train" Watts | April 20, 2012 11:33 PMReply

    25 Million

  • Yolanda | April 20, 2012 12:22 PMReply

    25.5 million

  • Tepnlex | April 20, 2012 9:17 AMReply

    20.2

  • LaSonia Lesley | April 20, 2012 12:59 AMReply

    $42.3 Million

  • Akil G. | April 19, 2012 10:47 PMReply

    21.4 million

  • BENNY | April 19, 2012 10:29 PMReply

    $23,930,000

  • Rhonda | April 19, 2012 9:51 PMReply

    $23.6 Million

  • Nicole | April 19, 2012 9:38 PMReply

    $22.7 mil

  • L | April 19, 2012 9:26 PMReply

    I'm going to say $24m

  • rocknrollsista | April 19, 2012 9:15 PMReply

    16.4 million

  • Orville | April 19, 2012 7:09 PMReply

    17.5 million

  • Donella | April 19, 2012 5:48 PMReply

    26.7 million

  • tybo | April 19, 2012 4:20 PMReply

    23.5 million

  • Talos4 | April 19, 2012 1:29 PMReply

    10.1 million

  • B. Strong | April 19, 2012 1:27 PMReply

    8.4 million

  • Marissa | April 19, 2012 12:49 PMReply

    18.4 million

  • Shawna | April 19, 2012 11:03 AMReply

    I'm going with 12.1 million, I see someone else took my 12 (lol).
    The film is marketed poorly with coon-ish Kevin Hart as its main focus and I think this will ultimately work against them.
    Also, I have seen 0 promotion of the film via black sites online. This may or may not hurt them considering that I do see tons of commercial for it daily.
    Whatever the case, I don't really see the film doing well because again, the emphasis on Kevin in the commercials will probably keep away intelligent black men and women. Kevin Hart alone is the main reason I won't be seeing this film.

  • Miles Maker | April 22, 2012 12:35 PM

    If you remember, Kevin hart's LAUGH AT MY PAIN was hugely successful--in fact it's the highest-grossing movie for AMC Independent EVER. Makes sense they would lean on a face that has literally been on tour for years now amassing comedic acclaim and acquiring new fans with every show in every city.

  • Akelah | April 19, 2012 10:07 AMReply

    $25.9 Million

  • Tamara | April 19, 2012 9:42 AMReply

    15.8

  • iPRODUCE | April 19, 2012 9:01 AMReply

    28.2

  • julius hollingsworth | April 19, 2012 1:09 AMReply

    20 million.

  • ShebaBaby | April 19, 2012 12:55 AMReply

    17.4 mil

  • Macuffin | April 19, 2012 12:47 AMReply

    16,4M

  • misha | April 19, 2012 12:34 AMReply

    20.5 mil

  • Incrediblejeff | April 18, 2012 11:43 PMReply

    I could go all Price is Right and go with $1,but I'm gonna guess $16,500,000 .

  • Darelle | April 18, 2012 11:42 PMReply

    22.5 mil

  • Gina Boyer | April 18, 2012 11:26 PMReply

    My guess is $10.3 million.

  • Clayton | April 18, 2012 11:21 PMReply

    $18 Million

  • Corey A. Burkes | April 18, 2012 11:21 PMReply

    28.5 million opening weekend Friday to Sunday night. Just close to 60 million within the first two weeks (conservatively). You got to understand the subtle marketing of this movie (because it's not HUGE marketing) surrounding the base African-American Female, Steve Harvey segments and that works through word of mouth alone. This film is on a must see list. Not enough to beat an action film, but there's nothing coming out to compete. It's open ground and they have top actors people enjoy INCLUDING 'Turtle' from Entourage, whom we haven't seen in awhile. The ticket in other cultures or segments is bought based on him alone.

    So yeah ... 28.5 because its going to be a fast weekend. I'll let you know where to send the gift card.

  • Miles Maker | April 21, 2012 12:57 PM

    +1 you're thinking like an industry player here Brother.

  • Ryan Sharp | April 18, 2012 11:17 PMReply

    Ok...I'm going to be BOLD and estimate $12M. I think the core recipe is wrong and it will show amongst the audience as a whole. We'll see if I'm right!

  • woh | April 18, 2012 11:16 PMReply

    20.12 M

  • JMac | April 18, 2012 10:20 PMReply

    I'll be conservative and say $14.25 million. Although a lot of people are aware of the film it also means there's a lot who will make the decision NOT to watch because they: (1) hate the book and don't care if the movie may be better than the book (and/or will probably wait until after the opening weekend to hear if it's safe to break their 'I will never patronize anything this trashy book produces' vow) , (2) hate Steve Harvey, or (3) hate Kevin Hart.

  • Camy | April 18, 2012 10:11 PMReply

    19.5 million

  • blah, blah | April 18, 2012 10:08 PMReply

    All the good numbers are taken and I never win anything anyway, so I guess $17.5 million dollars

  • elaine | April 18, 2012 9:59 PMReply

    19.8 million

  • Cherish | April 18, 2012 9:43 PMReply

    22.2 million

  • Steve | April 18, 2012 9:10 PMReply

    23.8 million

  • KS | April 18, 2012 8:06 PMReply

    OH wait...just checked..the last Nicolas Sparks book to film feature opened 30 mil...the only one of the 6 films of his work to past 17 million opening week ....but that also had Channing Tatum.. again...Zac Efron is no Channing. Don't think people will buy him in military unrequited lover role

  • KS | April 18, 2012 8:03 PMReply

    I actually think "The Lucky One" might flop... it appeals to "The Vow"s audience which opened at 40 mil but Channing Tatum proved himself as lead male adult actor. Zac Efron is cute but the people caught up on him in High School Musical days are into the Channing Tatums or the lead males of "The Hunger Games". Efron's starring role outside HSM opened at 16mil and Nicolas Spark's last adapted work (well technically he wrote the book afterwards for the last film) opened at around 16 mil too.

    Kevin Hart's popular and they've been smart to market him as lead in trailer and interview. Michael Ealy is a hearthrob entertainer whose roles haven't played into his looks before so this might be the film that makes him Morris Chestnut/ Taye Diggs/Omar Epps of the Black Romantic Dramedy era of 99-03 with Gabrielle Union to boot. (although I'm sure Michael Ealy won't stay in this lane)
    And maybe some misplaced "Entourage" fans will wan to see just a bit more Jerry for now

  • Shanea | April 18, 2012 7:58 PMReply

    22 million

  • Ks | April 18, 2012 7:54 PMReply

    23 million

  • ChasingAfterHarlem | April 18, 2012 7:07 PMReply

    21.7 mil

  • CareyCarey | April 18, 2012 6:56 PMReply

    Okay... I'm crunching the numbers. 1800 screens... check. No real competition... not even the NBA nor NCAA playoffs... check. Forget about cross-over appeal, this is a black movie... check. Steve Harvey has a huge fan base and his book was a best seller... check. It's a chick flick... check. Stomp The Yard, 2100 screens... check. Obsessed, 2500 screens... check. Tyler Perry's top weekends, 41 mil, 30 mil, 25mil on an average of 2100 screens... check. "Thou are loose" averaged $6,400 per screen... check. *** Drum Roll**** EIGHTEEN MILLION, SEVEN HUNDRED FIFTY TWO THOUSAND, EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY TWO DOLLARS. That's my final answer.

  • Miles Maker | April 21, 2012 12:59 PM

    I like your thought process, but you left out 2 movies that might have kicked your prediction north a bit more. THIS CHRISTMAS. TAKERS.

  • K | April 18, 2012 6:36 PMReply

    I'm going with 29.2 million.
    It looks pretty decent and the leads are great.

  • FUNK GUMBO RADIO | April 18, 2012 6:19 PMReply

    27.3 million

  • Yvonne Jones | April 18, 2012 6:16 PMReply

    I'm going with $24.4 million.

  • Jai | April 18, 2012 6:13 PMReply

    26 million

  • Antoine | April 18, 2012 6:02 PMReply

    21.5

  • CRITICAL ACCLAIM | April 18, 2012 5:57 PMReply

    21!

  • Akim | April 18, 2012 5:56 PMReply

    I'll say it makes $25 million.

  • BeautyIAM | April 18, 2012 5:48 PMReply

    18.6 million

  • SAVANNAH MORGAN | April 18, 2012 5:42 PMReply

    17.2

  • aDawn217 | April 18, 2012 5:30 PMReply

    28.4 Million

  • Jason Pollard | April 18, 2012 5:23 PMReply

    19.7 Million

  • ealix | April 18, 2012 4:57 PMReply

    37.5million

  • Neziah | April 18, 2012 4:57 PMReply

    16 million.

  • other song | April 18, 2012 4:37 PMReply

    18 million

  • richard | April 18, 2012 4:35 PMReply

    22.8 Million...I would go much higher if Kevin Hart was actually funny.

  • Laura | April 18, 2012 4:25 PMReply

    I'll guess @ 25 million. I know I will be making a contribution to the box office this week. It is not my first, second or third choice, but hey I going with my girlfriends. And I am getting them to buy tickets to see Restless City.

  • Masha | April 18, 2012 4:20 PMReply

    20 million

  • Tiffany Holt | April 18, 2012 4:17 PMReply

    my prediction is 30 million

  • Jimmy | April 18, 2012 4:13 PMReply

    17 million

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