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Oscar 2012 Predictions? Upsets? Hopes? Let's Talk...

by Tambay A. Obenson
February 24, 2012 3:21 PM
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Step right up folks... place ya bets... anyone bold enough to make their Oscar predictions before this Sunday's broadcast?

We obviously know what the short list of nominees in every category looks like, as well as what names and titles have been cleaning up in past awards ceremonies that really matter.

So, probably not a tough call to make in the major categories - Best Film, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

This may be one of the most predictable Oscars ever! I'm hoping that there's a major upset or surprise or two; something that few of us actually saw coming. I have no idea what that would be, but I wouldn't complain if say the incredibly over-rated silent film The Artist didn't win a single award.

Now THAT would be shocking! But it'll put a smile on my face too.

What else might decrease the predictability of the event?

The Best actor race seems like it's likely down to George Clooney (The Descendants, which I actually haven't seen; it just doesn't rope me in) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist); how about shocking the world and giving it to Gary Oldman, who, as I learned, is being nominated for his VERY FIRST Academy Award! Can you believe that? Gary Oldman, one of the premiere thespians of our time, has done countless films, and has never been nominated for an Oscar, ever? Maybe he just hasn't done anything that's gotten as much Academy awareness and praise as Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

Best Actress will likely go to either Viola Davis or Meryl Streep. I was really surprised to see Rooney Mara nominated for her performance in Girl With The Dragon Tattoo; not that she didn't do a good job with the role, but I felt like the Academy was reaching a bit there; and if they were reaching, I would have been far more impressed if they went with someone like Adepero Oduye for her work in Pariah. Obviously I'm biased :) But her performance WAS strong in that film.

Best Supporting Actor is likely Christopher Plummer's to lose for Beginners, which I haven't yet seen either.

Best Supporting Actress is also likely Octavia Spencer's to lose. A shocking upset would be selecting Melissa McCarthy (from the surprisingly funny and entertaining Bridesmaids; yeah, I didn't think I'd like it, but I actually did).

Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist is your probable Best Director winner. I say eff it, and give it to Woody Allen instead for Midnight in Paris... just because. He last won it in 1977 for Annie Hall. Mignight In Paris is no Annie Hall, but I'll take anything over The Artist, and I have a soft-spot for Woody (despite that thing that he did back when), so why not :)

Best Original Screenplay... yup, The Artist again; but the Academy could shock the world and give it to Margin Call instead, which I actually liked, but didn't love. Or, a much stronger film than any of those 2 is A Separation, which really should get the trophy in that category.

And lastly, Best Adapted Screenplay; This might be the one award that Moneyball wins the entire evening; and I'd actually be ok with that, thanks to Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian.

Yes, there are other categories, but I'm going to stop with just these 8 categories... feel free to mention others in your comments if you wish.

The Academy Awards ceremony airs on Sunday, February 26, 2012.

Soooo... all that said, who are your Oscar winners for this year? Or instead, who would you LIKE to see win, rather than who you think WILL win? Or just general comments about the nominees... whatever makes you happy.

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  • ska-triumph | February 25, 2012 9:28 PMReply

    My 2-5 cents follows what most of the pundits, critics and Oscarologists have been saying. I've seen and read all the nominated films except MIDNIGHT IN PARIS - Woody Allen has been good about keeping his scripts from getting out into the ethos... He'll likely win for screenplay and that's it: still he doesn't deserve it. The film is good-looking but hollow. ARTIST will sweep the headlines; HUGO the techs. The sistahs will carry THE HELP. That's where surprises will matter to most. I'm looking forward to my fellow revelers dropping harsh critique on the red carpet and Crystal's 21st century MCing.

  • Clayton | February 24, 2012 4:26 PMReply

    I don't think The Artist is overrated. The praise the film is getting is in comparison to the many theatrically released films of 2011, and The Artist is the only film that excels in all facets of film craftsmanship: writing, cinematography, directing, editing, acting, art direction, etc. The only category it doesn't excel or do anything in for that matter is sound. But who cares? Is The Artist the best film made ever? Of course not. It didn't blow me away, and I haven't been blown away by a film in years. Is it the best film of 2011? Yes, but not by a large margin. 2011 had to be one of the worst movie years on record. Just when I thought 2009 and 2007 was bad, both are eclipsed by this disaster of a year. Of all the films released in 2011, The Artist is one of the few that I wouldn't mind seeing again. To be frank, outside of films like The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, The Descendants, Pariah, Warhorse, Midnight in Paris, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and maybe a couple other 2011 films, I don't care to see any of these films again. So, again, I don't think anyone tried to over rate The Artist. It was just rated high and highly recommended over the many mediocre films released along with it.

  • Dankwa Brooks | February 25, 2012 6:14 PM

    What I thought of ALL TEN Best Picture nominees from last year

  • Clayton | February 24, 2012 5:17 PM

    I haven't seen Attack the Block. Will see it asap. I saw a slew of others. Most are awful, others were "ehh." 2010 was a much better year. I could watch all the best picture nominees again except for 127 Hours. In fact, I really liked all the nominees with The Social Network, True Grit, Black Swan, Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone and The Fighter being my favorites. Some other faves that didn't get the best picture nomination of 2010 were Animal Kingdom, Inside Job, In a Better World, etc.

  • Dankwa Brooks | February 24, 2012 4:44 PM

    2011 had to be one of the worst movie years on record. I TOTALLY AGREE! Bloody awful! And I have seen perhaps the most films of my lifetime in 2011. I'll add ATTACK THE BLOCK to your list of good films (Haven't seen War Horse). Any year when Transformers 3 was my favorite summer movie is hella bad. Also I've seen 6 of the 9 Best apictures and Attack the Block while far from perfect is STILL my favorite film of 2011. By comparison my favorite film of 2010 was a TIE – The Social Network & Inception.

  • Clayton | February 24, 2012 4:03 PMReply

    The Help doesn't have a chance. The Artist is winning Best Picture. The only uncertain categories are director and leading actress, and maybe leading actor. But Best Picture is a lock.

  • Dankwa Brooks | February 25, 2012 6:10 PM

    No The Help does not have a chance that's why it would be an upset. LOL

  • Dankwa Brooks | February 24, 2012 3:35 PMReply

    I think THE HELP winning Best Picture would be a big upset. Other than that I don't really see any other credible upsets. Jonah Hill winning? C'mon Son! Rooney Mara winning? C'mon Son! X 2. Neither one are credible upsets. I too wrote about the Oscars. Who I think SHOULD win the Oscar @

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