By Tambay A. Obenson | Shadow and Act April 21, 2012 at 9:52AM
Ahead of Sergio's official box office post tomorrow, I thought I'd jump in here (given that we've got a contest running, and this is apparently the hottest *black film* of the year thus far) and let you all know that, according to Deadline, Think Like A Man is en route to taking the box office crown this weekend, with an estimated $30 million!!
This is based primarily on Friday's opening day numbers, with estimates given for Saturday and Sunday to come up with that final $30 million figure. Of course the official numbers may not be THAT exact, but it looks like we can call it a winner right now.
And what's really impressive about its numbers is that, as I noted in previous posts, the film opened on more than 1000 screens less than the film that will likely end up at #2 this weekend, the Zac Efron drama The Lucky One, which is based on a novel by Nick Sparks.
Let me say that again: it opened on over 1000 fewer screens than The Lucky One, and is still ahead of it by about $5 million.
Word is that Sony/Screen Gems (the studio releasing the film) predicted a $17 million opening for the film; so if that $30 million figure holds through tomorrow, suffice it to say that it surpasses expectations by far.
"The movie had a negative cost between $12M-$13M so we’re thrilled... Any weekend where you make back the negative cost in the first weekend is a good weekend in our books," said a Sony exec.
By the way, the "negative costs" are essentially production costs, minus P&A (prints and advertising) costs. So the film has already made back its production budget (and then some) during its opening weekend. Call it the Tyler Perry model (or maybe more broadly, the studio *black film* model) - low production costs, so even if the film brings in $50 million (about the average box office totals for Tyler Perry's movies), while not blockbuster numbers (let's say $100 million+), the film will be profitable, if not immediately, then definitely in the short run.
Keep in mind that the average production budget of a studio film nowadays is about 5 to 6 times that of Think Like A Man.
If the film has legs, as the saying goes, and doesn't drop too much next weekend, producer Will Packer and company might see it become their highest grossing film to date. Obsessed currently wears that crown; that film opened at $28 million (close to Think Like A Man's projected figures), and went onto make close to $70 million.
And don't forget, production on the next Will Packer/Rainforest Films production will soon be underway (if it hasn't started already) in Atlanta - a thriller titled No Good Deed, which stars Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson.
And those of you who guessed anywhere close to $30 million in the Think Like A Man box office contest I posted earlier this week, you're in good shape to win the prize.