Since I'm firmly in the camp of changing distribution paradigms, things that balance our unbridled optimism with some skepticism are always a good read.

Om Malik (Business 2.0 /www.gigaom.com ) takes a thoughtful look at some of the obstacles in this post: LINK

"Here are some actual numbers which show that exploding TV is one with a really long and I mean long fuse. An average American watches four hours of television and assuming that he gets to pick and choose at a rate of 99 cents an hour, well his/her average spend is going to be about $1465 a year or about $120 a month. Add the download costs - say a good 6 megabits connection, which is about $50 a month, you are looking at $170 a month. Average cable bill is about $52 a month. Not including the cost of specialized gear like darling of the moment, Akimbo or TiVo, the delta is just too wide."

He's not wrong. There are a number of obstacles, and a number of groundbreaking events that could shift things more quickly. Perhaps the most important, and least written about is the current Cable Card debate.

ENGADGET Link

The Federal Communications Commission announced a unanimous decision to adopt rules that make digital cable reception on new televisions as easy as plugging a card into a set.

"The agency said Wednesday that with the new rules, digital TVs can receive cable signals without the need for a set-top box. The rules allow manufacturers to make sets with so-called plug-and-play capabilities, so consumers can just "plug in" their equipment to receive digital services. Customers insert a security card, or a cable card they would get from their cable operator, to decrypt scrambled cable signals on the sets.

CABLE CARD Link

Why does this matter? Because we're facing a battle over who owns the living room. And if cable co's are allowed to insist on a box... then they control our living room universe.

But - if the hardware in our homes is something we can buy at Circuit City - or that other manufacturers like Tivo can build into their boxes - then things really heat up...