The pipe debate is interesting - but it's not the driver.

3.2 Billion Dollars with of adds on Google is the real clue. Contextual, coherent, measurable advertising is going to drive a whole new economic system for content of all types. Blogs, Video, Text, etc.

So with content now empowered by a way to turn users into revenue - the face of motion media (video) content is going to change far faster than anyone could imagine. Proctor and Gamble just too 20% of their media spend out of the network TV upfront. This isn't a negotiating ploy to get lower cpm's - it's a demand to their media agencies to find new ways to bring their brands to their audiences.

So while VOD is a great long term model, the short term dollars are already in play.

And the whole question of non-linear, VOD, and consumer habits seems to always come back to how many new ways there are to slice and dice old content. CBS News, MTV, the Today show 'when you want it.'

The idea that video content in the post 'walled-garden' universe will look very much the same as in the current world is wishful thinking on the part of the incumbents.

What kind of content will people make? What kind of content will audiences
be drawn to? That's for the market to sort out - which it will - but a few things are pretty certain. Niches will for the first time have the potential to be economic. And a new generation of content creators won't be locked out by the prohibitive cost of tools and pipe.

We're a little close to all this.

But flash back to 1997 - and think about how you used the internet as part of your business and personal life? Ebay? Expedia? Banking? Google? We've become quickly used to having a staggering amount of information at our fingertips. And video is the only piece of the info-sphere that's lagged (simply because of bandwidth and the single largest limiting factor).

So let's have a bit of faith. And a bit of imagination. It could be that in 20 years we'll look at 2005 as the first chapter in a golden age of motion media content. Content produced by passionate individuals, inspired professionals, and legacy network systems. Content that rises or falls based on direct consumer feedback (either performance based advertising or VOD revenues). Content that - if meaningful - has a life in the long tail world of future revenues.

We're at the beginning. And that can only be good.