I can't resist.
And its not a total crap shoot idea either. Last year, I ended up doing pretty well (save for all that Miracle at St. Anna stuff). I actually got 3 of 5 best actor nominees predicted, and rightfully predicted best actress (though my best supporting actor prediction - John Malkovich for Changeling - makes me ill).
2009's crop offers a whole parade of Oscary possibilities - such as your likely biopics (Clint Eastwood's Mandela project, which I'm just gonna call Mandela; Mira Nair's Amelia, Ang Lee's Taking Woodstock, perhaps Spielberg's Lincoln); literary adaptations (Martin Scorcese's Shutter Island, Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones, Stephen Frears' Cheri, Julie Taymor's The Tempest); huge budget musicals starring everyone you can think of (Rob Marshall's Nine), interesting latest projects from innovative directors (The Coens' A Serious Man, Terrence Malick' The Tree of Life, Paul Greengrass' Green Zone, Steven Soderbergh's The Informant); and lighter, potentially crowdpleasing fare (Sam Mendes' Away We Go, Jason Reitman's Up In The Air, Nancy Meyers's untitled Meryl Streep comedy, Judd Apatow's Funny People). Add that to some huge(r) question marks (James Cameron's Avatar, Jane Campion's Bright Star, John Hillcoat's The Road), and the dozens of films I failed to mention, and this could be a really, really interesting year.
Some things to potentially note:
- It could actually, well, look just like 2007, if the cards fall a very specific (and unlikely way). Imagine this scenario: A Coen brothers film (A Serious Man), a Jason Reitman film (Up In The Air) and a Joe Wright film (The Soloist) nominated for best picture; Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine), Johnny Depp (Public Enemies), and George Clooney (Up In The Air), and Viggo Mortensen (The Road) battle it out for best actor; Marion Cotillard (Nine or Public Enemies), Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Boat That Rocked) all among the other acting nominees...
-This could be a very good year for female directors: Kathryn Bigelow, Lone Scherfig, Mira Nair, Nancy Meyers, Jane Campion, Julie Taymor and Nora Ephron all have promising works out there. I'll wager this now: one of them will be a best director nominee. Which one, I really don't know.
-Matt Damon has THREE big performances (Green Zone, The Informant, Mandela), and is extremely overdue for a second acting nomination. I'd say the surest possible thing to say is that he will be nominated in some capacity.
-For the past six years, at least one acting nominee has come out of Sundance. This year Mo'Nique and Carey Mulligan seem like the odds on favourites to fulfill that history.
Anyway, here's my suggested five, winners in bold (all of which I'm sure will be wrong):
BEST PICTURE
The Informant
Mandela
Nine
Shutter Island
Taking WoodstockBEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood, Mandela
Ang Lee, Taking Woodstock
Steven Soderbergh, The Informant
Martin Scorcese, Shutter IslandBEST ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Informant
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Leonardo diCaprio, Shutter Island
Morgan Freeman, Mandela
Demetri Martin, Taking WoodstockBEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri
Maya Rudolph, Away We Go
Hilary Swank, Ameila
Audrey Tatou, Coco avant ChanelBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Mandela
Jonathan Groff, Taking Woodstock
Richard Kind, A Serious Man
Alfred Molina, An Education
Mark Ruffalo, Shutter IslandBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, Cheri
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the novel by Sapphire
Imelda Staunton, Taking Woodstock
Michelle Williams, Shutter IslandBEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Away We Go
Broken Embraces
Funny People
A Serious Man
UpBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
An Education
Mandela
Nine
Shutter Island
Taking WoodstockBEST ANIMATED FILM
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Up
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14 Comments
Cedric | March 7, 2010 3:46 AM
and...the secrets her eyes?
Jeff | February 4, 2010 9:32 AM
Have a look at this prediction - He claims that he knows who will win - http://blog.tomedes.com/oscar-winner-2010-best-foreign-language-film/
Davis | November 27, 2009 4:14 AM
This is all going to be wrong. Did you see Taking Woodstock?!?!
WILL | November 18, 2009 9:43 AM
Great list, but i think that vigo mortensen and jhonny depp will be nominated. And Matt Damon can win two oscars.
oscar | September 17, 2009 10:46 AM
PELÍCULA 01) Up to the Air 02) The Lovely Bones 03) Nine 04) Up 05) Invictus 06) The White Ribbon 07) The Road 08) Precious 09) The Hurt Locker 10) Julie & Julia 11) A Single Man 12) An Education 13) Bright Star 14) A Serious Man 15) Whatever Works 16) Capitalism: A Love Story 17) The Informant 18) Chéri 19) Inglourious Basterds 20) Is Anybody There ?
DIRECTOR 01) Jason Reitman - Up in the Air 02) Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon 03) Clint Eastwood - Invictus 04) Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones 05) Rob Marshall - Nine 06) Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker 07) Lee Daniels - Precious 08) Lone Scherfig - An Education 09) Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - A Serious Man 10) Stephen Frears - Chéri
ACTOR 01) Morgan Freeman - Invictus 02) George Clooney - Up to the Air 03) Christopher Plummer - The Last Station 04) Michael Caine - Is Anybody There? 05) Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine 06) Colin Firth - A Single Man 07) Robert Duvall - Get Low 08) Paul Bettany - Creation 09) Viggo Mortensen - The Road 10) Michael Douglas - Solitary Man
ACTRIZ 01) Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia 02) Michelle Pfeiffer - Chéri 03) Gabourey Sidibe - Precious 04) Emily Watson - Within the Whirlwind 05) Hilary Swank - Amelia 06) Julianne Moore - Chloe 07) Naomi Watts - Mother and Child 08) Kristin Scott Thomas - Nowhere Boy 09) Helen Mirren - The Last Station 10) Brenda Blethyn - London River
ACTOR DE REPARTO 01) Matt Damon - Invictus 02) Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones 03) Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Bastards 04) Alfred Molina - An Education 05) Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Road 06) Samuel L. Jackson - Mother and Child 07) James McAvoy - The Last Station 08) Richard Gere - Amelia 09) Bill Nighy - The Boat that Rocked 10) Jeff Bridges - The Men Who Stare at Goats
ACTRIZ DE REPARTO 01) Annette Benning - Mother and Child 02) Susan Sarandon - The Lovely Bones 03) Penélope Cruz - Nine 04) Judi Dench - Nine 05) Sissy Spacek - Get Low 06) Kathy Bates - Chéri 07) Amy Adams - Julie & Julia 08) Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air 09) Patricia Clarkson - Whatever Works 10) Rachel Weisz - The Lovely Bones
GUIÓN ADAPTADO 01) Up in the air 02) The Lovely Bones 03) Invictus 04) Nine 05) Precious 06) Julie & Julia 07) A Single Man 08) An Education 09) The Road 10) The Last Station
GUIÓN ORIGINAL 01) Up 02) The Hurt Locker 03) The White Ribbon 04) Is Anybody There? 05) A Serious Man 06) Bright Star 07) (500) Days of Summer 08) Whatever Works 09) Inglorious Bastards 10) Broken Embraces
PELÍCULA ANIMADA 01) Up 02) The Princess & The Frog 03) A Christmas Carol 04) Ponyo 05) Coraline 06) The Fantastic Mr. Fox 07) 9 08) Ice Age 3 09) Monsters vs. Aliens 10) G-Force
Jim | August 31, 2009 10:02 AM
HAHAHHAHAHA HOLY SHIT! You picked Demetri Martin! hahhahahah you are an IDIOT! Oh my god you are fucking terrible! (I forgot to mention this in the last post)
Jim | August 31, 2009 10:01 AM
Wow- Taking Woodstock isn't going to get nominated for ONE award, let alone get nominated and win for Best Picture... I know this was before the movie flopped, but come on- if you're going to be foolish enough to predict an award show a YEAR away- at least pick something that might have a chance. Taking Woodstock never had one. Your site fucking blows man- It's funny to see your ignorance shown to the two people that actually have come to see your picks (yeah i know i am one of them- but once was enough for a visit). You don't even have fucking Malick as a Director consideration- but oh wait it's Ang Lee's to lose, right? Stay out of anything Oscar related- you are POSEUR.
oscar | August 25, 2009 9:59 AM
BEST FILM An Education Bright Star Chéri Invictus Is Anybody There? Julie & Julia The Lovely Bones Nine Up Whatever Works
BEST DIRECTOR Jane Campion - Bright Star Stephen Frears - Chéri Clint Eastwood - Invictus Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones Rob Marshall - Nine
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE Michael Caine - Is Anybody There? Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine Morgan Freeman - Invictus Christopher Plummer - The Last Station Mark Wahlberg - The Lovely Bones
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE Marion Cotillard - Nine Michelle Pfeiffer - Chéri Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones Hilary Swank - Amelia Emily Watson - Within the Whirlwind
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Matt Damon - Invictus Alfred Molina - An Education Bill Nighy - Glorious 39 Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Bastards
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Kathy Bates - Chéri Julie Christie - Glorious 39 Penélope Cruz - Nine Susan Sarandon - The Lovely Bones Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
ADAPTATED SCREENPLAY An Education Chéri Invictus The Lovely Bones Nine
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Bright Star Is Anybody There? The Hurt Locker Up Whatever Whings
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Coraline Ice Age 3 Ponyo The Princess & The Frog Up
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Broken Embraces (Spain) The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
FERNANDO | July 30, 2009 3:05 AM
BEST ACTRESS: SARAH MICHELLE GELLAR FOR VERONIKA DECIDES TO DIE.... AMAZING PERFORMACE
oscar | July 15, 2009 11:51 AM
BEST FILM
01) Shuttter Island
02) The Lovely Bones
03) Chéri
04) Invictus
05) Nine
06) An Education
07) Bright Star
08) Up
09) Amelia
10) Precious
11) The Hurt Locker
12) Is Anybody There?
13) Love Ranch
14) Whatever Whings
15) Public Enemies
16) Away We Go 17) The Road
18) Julie & Julia
19) Taking Woodstock
20) Inglorious Bastards
BEST DIRECTOR
01) Martin Scorsese - Shuttter Island
02) Clint Eastwood - Invictus
03) Stephen Frears - Chéri
04) Rob Marshall - Nine
05) Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones
06) Lone Scherfig - An Education
07) Woody Allen - Whatever Works
08) Jane Campion - Bright Star
09) Mira Nair - Amelia
10) Taylor Hadford - Love Ranch
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
01) Leonardo DiCaprio - Shuttter Island
02) Michael Caine - Is Anybody There?
03) Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
04) Morgan Freeman - Invictus
05) Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
06) Peter Sarsgaard - An Education
07) Joe Pesci - Love Ranch
08) Robert De Niro - Everybody's Fine
09) Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
10) Johnny Depp - Public Enemies
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
01) Michelle Pfeiffer - Chéri
02) Audrey Tautou - Coco Avant Chanel
03) Hilary Swank - Amelia
04) Emily Watson - Within the Whirlwind
05) Carey Mulligan - An Education
06) Helen Mirren - The Last Station
07) Robin Wright Penn - The Privates Lives of Pipa Lee
08) Jennifer Connelly – Creation
09) Carey Mulligan - An Education
10) Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
01) Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
02) Bill Nighy - The Boat that Rocked
03) Matt Damon - Invictus
04) Ben Kingsley - Shuttter Island
05) James McAvoy - The Last Station
06) Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Bastards
07) Alfred Molina - An Education
08) Christian Bale - Public Enemies
09) Jeff Daniels - Away We Go
10) Ewan McGregor - Amelia
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
01) Judi Dench - Nine
02) Kathy Bates - Chéri
03) Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
04) Rachel Weisz - The Lovely Bones
05) Patricia Clarkson - Whatever Works
06) Imelda Staunton - Taking Woodstock
07) Emily Mortimer - Shutter Island
08) Susan Sarandon - The Lovely Bones
09) Penélope Cruz - Nine
10) Michelle Williams - Shutter Island
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01) Shuttter Island
02) Chéri
03) The Lovely Bones
04) Nine
05) Invictus
06) The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
07) Amelia
08) Within the Whirlwind
09) Julie & Julia
10) From Time to Time
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01) Up
02) Is Anybody There?
03) An Education
04) Tetro
05) Whatever Whings
06) Inglorious Bastards
07) Public Enemies
08) A Serious Man
09) My Sister's Keeper
10) Love Ranch
gamus | June 18, 2009 5:24 AM
My predictions for best picture: The Road Tree of Life Public Enemies Nine The Informant
Engin Sevim | April 6, 2009 10:20 AM
Best Picture: Nine Lovely Bones Precious: Based On The Novel "Push" By Sapphire Biutiful Amelia Best Animation: Up The Princess And The Frog Fantastis Mr Fox
Rory | March 4, 2009 2:14 AM
I've been following "Away We Go" since it was first announced. I agree that it has a really good chance in the Original Screenplay category since a majority of the "main" opponents would be Adapted Screenplay. However, I don't quite understand the Maya nomination. If they do go with an actress from a comedy, they might just go with Meryl for the Nancy Meyers project or even Amy Adams or Emily Blunt from "Sunshine Cleaning." I just don't see Maya as competition as Grace from "Away We Go."
Fred | March 3, 2009 1:36 AM
it's very hard to predict a year ahead but I totally agree on your predictions for Taking Woodstock. I hope Ang Lee will become the first Asian director to get the oscar for best picture. Concerning the actors and the actresses, I express some doubts as far as Tautou is concerned. Nice pick in the best supporting category; Ruffalo was perfect In Zodiac and so he will be in Shutter Island. The Lovely Bones and Tree of Life have strong chances, to my opinion.