2010 Oscar Predictions, Based Only On What We've Seen

By thelostboy | The Lost Boys May 29, 2009 at 2:20AM

2010 Oscar Predictions, Based Only On What We've Seen
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To go along with this article up on indieWIRE, I figured I'd have a little fun. That article discusses the Oscar hopes of the films that have screened either at festivals or in theaters, most dominantly those from Cannes, Sundance, and Berlin... So I decided I'd play a hypothetical prediction game by naming what I believe the nominations would be if the only films in contention were those that have already screened. Make sense? It's not a who I think should be nominated (though I included a "For Your Consideration" slot, a la EW, for those I loved that already seem out of contention), but who I think would be if this fantasy situation were ever capable of being true.

Now I know it sort of defeats the purpose of predicting something when what you're predicting doesn't exist, so I'll give you one thing you can actually hold me to: I believe quite strongly that a third of the nominees I have listed here will go on to Oscar nominations (and I've bolded that third).

Best Picture:
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Precious
Up

(FYC: Summer Hours)

Best Director:
Jacques Audiard, A Prophet
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious
Lone Scherfig, An Education

(FYC: Ramin Bahrani, Goodbye Solo)

Best Actor:
Hugh Dancy, Adam
Clive Owen, Duplicity
Tahar Rahim, A Prophet
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Ben Winshaw, Bright Star

(FYC: Souléymane Sy Savané, Goodbye Solo)

Best Actress:
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Michelle Pfieffer, Cheri
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

(FYC: Julia Roberts, Duplicity)

Best Supporting Actor:
Jason Bateman, State of Play
Alfred Molina, An Education
Peter Sarsgaard, An Education
Paul Schneider, Bright Star
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

(FYC: Martin Starr, Adventureland)

Best Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, Cheri
Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works
Kerry Fox, Bright Star
Jennifer Lawrence, The Burning Plain
Mo'Nique, Precious

(FYC: Anna Faris or Celia Weston, Observe and Report)

Best Original Screenplay:
Bright Star
Broken Embraces
The Hurt Locker
Whatever Works
Up

(FYC: Adventureland, Summer Hours, Observe and Report, Goodbye Solo and Duplicity)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Cheri
An Education
A Prophet
Precious
State of Play

(FYC: ?)

It's actually not a bad lineup, for the most part... and what's really interesting here is the women across the board. I've never had such an easy time filling in the actress categories and such a tough time finding capable men (hence Clive Owen and Jason Bateman, not that I have anything against their performances), and what's more, look at the best director category: THREE women, a openly gay black man, and Jacques Audiard. Imagine that lineup?