2010 Oscar Predictions, Based Only On What We've Seen

by thelostboy
May 29, 2009 2:20 AM
5 Comments
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To go along with this article up on indieWIRE, I figured I'd have a little fun. That article discusses the Oscar hopes of the films that have screened either at festivals or in theaters, most dominantly those from Cannes, Sundance, and Berlin... So I decided I'd play a hypothetical prediction game by naming what I believe the nominations would be if the only films in contention were those that have already screened. Make sense? It's not a who I think should be nominated (though I included a "For Your Consideration" slot, a la EW, for those I loved that already seem out of contention), but who I think would be if this fantasy situation were ever capable of being true.

Now I know it sort of defeats the purpose of predicting something when what you're predicting doesn't exist, so I'll give you one thing you can actually hold me to: I believe quite strongly that a third of the nominees I have listed here will go on to Oscar nominations (and I've bolded that third).

Best Picture:
Bright Star
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Precious
Up

(FYC: Summer Hours)

Best Director:
Jacques Audiard, A Prophet
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious
Lone Scherfig, An Education

(FYC: Ramin Bahrani, Goodbye Solo)

Best Actor:
Hugh Dancy, Adam
Clive Owen, Duplicity
Tahar Rahim, A Prophet
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Ben Winshaw, Bright Star

(FYC: Souléymane Sy Savané, Goodbye Solo)

Best Actress:
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Penelope Cruz, Broken Embraces
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Michelle Pfieffer, Cheri
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

(FYC: Julia Roberts, Duplicity)

Best Supporting Actor:
Jason Bateman, State of Play
Alfred Molina, An Education
Peter Sarsgaard, An Education
Paul Schneider, Bright Star
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

(FYC: Martin Starr, Adventureland)

Best Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, Cheri
Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works
Kerry Fox, Bright Star
Jennifer Lawrence, The Burning Plain
Mo'Nique, Precious

(FYC: Anna Faris or Celia Weston, Observe and Report)

Best Original Screenplay:
Bright Star
Broken Embraces
The Hurt Locker
Whatever Works
Up

(FYC: Adventureland, Summer Hours, Observe and Report, Goodbye Solo and Duplicity)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Cheri
An Education
A Prophet
Precious
State of Play

(FYC: ?)

It's actually not a bad lineup, for the most part... and what's really interesting here is the women across the board. I've never had such an easy time filling in the actress categories and such a tough time finding capable men (hence Clive Owen and Jason Bateman, not that I have anything against their performances), and what's more, look at the best director category: THREE women, a openly gay black man, and Jacques Audiard. Imagine that lineup?

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5 Comments

  • jill | November 19, 2009 9:29 AMReply

    There are 10 slots this year for best picture. Keep adding. I am glad you mention Goodbye Solo. It passed by lots of people, but I thought it was great, too. But I think you missed Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia. She was perfect.

  • kira | July 8, 2009 3:58 AMReply

    Here are my oscar predictions based on anticipation as well as whats been released.

    Best Picture:
    Precious
    Invictus
    The Hurt locker
    Bright Star
    Public Enemies

    Best Actor:
    Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
    Ben Winshaw, Bright Star
    Morgan Freeman, Invictus
    Tahar Rahim, A Prophet
    Tom Hanks, Angels and Demons

    Best Actress:
    Audrey Tautou, Coco Before Chanel
    Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice
    Vera Farmiga, Orphan
    Hilary Swank, Amelia
    Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Jason Bateman, State of Play
    Peter Sasgaard, An Education
    Matt Damon, Invictus
    Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
    Christian Bale, Public Enemies

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
    Isabelle Fuhrman, Orphan
    Mo'Nique, Precious
    Kathy Bates, Cheri
    Virginia Madsen, Amelia

    Best Animation:
    Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
    9
    The Princess and The Frog
    Coraline
    Monsters vs Aliens

  • Mark | June 18, 2009 10:36 AMReply

    Where's NINE?

  • Kip | May 30, 2009 7:39 AMReply

    yeah i decided i had to comment on the fact that you had noms for roles from Duplicity, but then i read the rest of the post, haha. but yes, i agree your dream lineup for best director would be pretty damn sweet. but i don't think the academy would ever be that open minded.

  • Brady | May 30, 2009 4:52 AMReply

    It hurts me to not see Kristen Stewart on the Best Actress list. FYC for Julia Roberts and yet no mention for the best female acting performance I've seen this year? Where's the love for one of the year's best films?

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