Updated Oscar Predictions

These should start coming less on a monthly and more on a weekly basis effectively pretty much immediately. Some commentary sprinkled thoughout, some saved from tomorrow's indieWIRE back & forth between myself and Eugene.

BEST PICTURE The Dark Knight Frost/Nixon Milk Revolutionary Road Slumdog Millionaire Very Possible: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Wrestler Less Possible: Australia, The Reader, Gran Torino Dark Horses: Wall-E, Gomorrah Winner?: No idea. BEST DIRECTOR Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Gus Van Sant, Milk Very Possible: Darren Aronofsky, Ron Howard Less Possible: Baz Luhrmann, Clint Eastwood, Stephen Daldry Dark Horses: Steve McQueen, Matteo Garrone Winner?: I have a feeling this might be the first pic/director split since Ang Lee/Crash. Maybe Nolan benefits? BEST ACTOR Leonardo diCaprio, Revolutionary Road Richard Jenkins, The Visitor Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon Sean Penn, Milk Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler Very Possible: Brad Pitt, Clint Eastwood Less Possible: Dustin Hoffman, Josh Brolin Dark Horse: Michael Fassbender Winner?: Rourke? I'm guessing he'll win most of the critic's awards. I just question his likability in the Academy even if he deserves it. Langella or diCaprio, both overdue, can take advantage of Rourke resistance if they are as well received as people suggest. I can't see Penn actually winning, but I could easily be very wrong. Jenkins should just happy if he gets a nod. Pitt and Eastwood are definitely in the race, and it was difficult leaving them off. I'm still guessing Rourke, but barely. BEST ACTRESS Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky Meryl Streep, Doubt Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road Very Possible: Cate Blanchett, Melissa Leo Less Possible: Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman Dark Horse: Michelle Williams Winner? Probably not Streep, if the early, somewhat mixed reviews mean anything. It has to be quite the performance for Oscar #3 (though was As Good As It Gets really?). If Winslet is excellent, as she could very well be, its hers. The others, I just can't see: Hawkins' film is too small, even if its fantastic... I even worry she might not make the final five. Hathaway's buzz has peaked. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Josh Brolin, Milk Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road Very Possible: Dev Patel, Ralph Fiennes Less Possible: Bill Irwin, Emile Hirsch, Jason Flemyng Dark Horse: Eddie Marsan Winner?: Heath Ledger. I cannot see it any other way. Its funny how the leading races' are shaping up quite clearly in terms of who the 6 or 7 finalists are, but the winners are so murky. In the supporting races, the two winners are rather clear, but the other 4 nominees are murky. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona Viola Davis, Doubt Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler Kate Winslet, The Reader Very Possible: Cate Blanchett, Taraji P. Henson, Amy Adams Less Possible: Kathy Bates, Debra Winger, Hiam Abbas, Freida Pinto Dark Horses: Elsa Zylberstein Winner: Probably Cruz. Unless this ends up being Winslet's category, which would be unfortunate since I'm guessing her placement here is a bit fraudulent, and Cruz is very deserving. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Dustin Lance Black, Milk Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married Woody Allen, Vicky Christina Barcelona Tom McCarthy, The Visitor Robert Seigel, The Wrestler Very Possible: Mike Leigh, Andrew Stanton Less Possible: Lurhmann & Co, Nick Shenk, The Coens Dark Horse: Charlie Kaufman Winner?: Tough. McCarthy and Stanton seem the like vulnerable nominees, and the other three very, very different screenplays seem to be the potential winners. I mean, there's Woody Allen. But I dont feel like Vicky is a great enough film to warrant another Oscar. Jenny Lumet would be the first black female winner here, and her father is Hollywood royalty. They do like a good story to go with winners... But did Rachel peak too soon? And Lance Black may be the only way to reward Milk, and the script involved intense and well-executed research. He's also openly gay, which might be - for once - a selling point. He's my guess at this point. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY John Patrick Shanley, Doubt Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon Maurizio Braucci, Gomorrah Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire Very Possible: Eric Roth, David Hare Less Possible: Francois Begaudeau Dark Horse: Jonathan Nolan Winner?: Braucci would make a great story, but Beaufoy seems like a frontrunner here, unless Revolutionary Road is fantastic. Adapt a book that great, and the film turns out that great, and you're in good shape. And, I'm quitting the special features: BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Kung Fu Panda WALL-E Waltz With Bazhir BEST FOREIGN FILM The Class (France) Everlasting Moments (Sweden) Gomorrah (Italy) The Mermaid (Russia) Revanche (Austria) BEST DOCUMENTARY Man on Wire Religulous Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired Trouble The Water Up The Yangtze BEST EDITING The Curious Case of Benjamin Button The Dark Knight Frost/Nixon Milk Revolutionary Road BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Australia The Curious Case of Benjamin Button The Dark Knight Gomorrah Revolutionary Road BEST ART DIRECTION Australia The Curious Case of Benjamin Button The Dark Knight Frost/Nixon Revolutionary Road BEST COSTUME DESIGN Australia Changeling The Curious Case of Benjamin Button The Duchess Revolutionary Road BEST ORIGINAL SONG "Down to Earth" (WALL-E - Peter Gabriel) “Jai Ho” (Slumdog Millionaire - AR Rahmen) "The Wrestler" (The Wrestler - Bruce Springsteen) BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Australia The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Doubt Revolutionary Road WALL-E BEST SOUND MIXING Australia The Curious Case of Benjamin Button The Dark Knight Quantum of Solace WALL-E BEST SOUND EDITING Australia The Dark Knight Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Iron Man WALL-E BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Iron Man BEST MAKEUP The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Synecdoche, New York Tropic Thunder