Final 2012 Oscar Predictions, For Whatever They're Worth

by Peter Knegt
February 26, 2012 12:43 PM
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Indiewire's Prediction for Best Picture: "The Artist"

In less than 24 hours, it will all be over. The 84th Academy Awards will be a memory and anyone with a vested interest in the award season will  breathe a sigh of relief. Somehow, the 2011-12 awards season seems poised to exceed its predecessor as the most boring, predictable and unrepresentative in recent memory (as already noted time and time again on this blog).

Will be there any good news? Sure. If all goes as planned, Christopher Plummer could finally take home an Oscar in a rare feat where a "career win" is also well deserved; "A Separation" could be the most deserving best foreign-language Oscar winner in a good half decade (at least). That dude from "Flight of the Conchords" could take a golden boy home for one of the many great songs from "The Muppets," even if it comes as a result of the weirdest, smallest nominee batch ever. And depending on where you stand on the love/hate scale for Michel Hazanavicius's "The Artist," you could have plenty to smile about.

But for the viewers: Is there any suspense to be had? In a couple of categories, maybe. Best actor is the most high-profile horse race (Clooney, Dujardin and Pitt are all genuine possibilities), and more below-the-line categories like best documentary, best original screenplay, best cinematography and best costume design are all question marks. But that's likely not enough to rouse even the most excitable Oscar geek. 

In the end, though, the show will belong to "The Artist," with "Hugo" reaping multiple technical and artistic nods. By the count of these predictions -- which admittedly play it very safe (though considering this awards season, why shouldn't they?) -- "The Artist" takes five, "Hugo" takes four. The only other multiple winner in this scenario is "The Help," which seems poised to win two acting statuettes.


Beyond them? Singular wins for "Beginners," "Midnight in Paris," "The Descendants," "Rango," "A Separation," "Undefeated," "Jane Eyre," "The Iron Lady," "The Muppets" and "Rise of the Planet of the Apes." That those 13 films could come to historically represent 2011 as a year in cinema is a considerable shame.

Who knows; maybe Melissa McCarthy will beat out the more favored scatologically tinged performance of Octavia Spencer in the best supporting actress category. Maybe Terrence Malick will take best director (even though he clearly won't be there to accept it). Maybe an unprecedented tie will find BFFs George Clooney and Brad Pitt on stage at the same time, where they'll profess their undying love for one another and make out while holding their matching little naked men. Maybe hell will freeze over.

Below is a quick and easy cheat sheet for those willing to trust Indiewire for their Oscar pools. Check out all the nominees and further commentary with regard to the predictions on our Oscar predictions chart.

Best Picture:
Who Will Win: "The Artist"
Who Could Win: "The Descendants"
Who Should Win: "The Tree of Life"

Best Director:
Who Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Who Could Win: Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
Who Should Win: Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Best Actor:
Who Will Win: Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Who Could Win: Brad Pitt, "Moneyball" or George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Best Actress:
Who Will Win: Viola Davis, "The Help"
Who Could Win: Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Who Should Win: Viola Davis, "The Help"

Best Supporting Actor:
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Who Could Win: Max Von Sydow, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Who Should Win: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Best Supporting Actress:
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Who Could Win: Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain, "The Help"

Best Original Screenplay:
Who Will Win: Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Who Could Win: Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Who Should Win: Asghar Farhadi, "A Separation"

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Who Will Win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rush, "The Descendants"
Who Could Win: Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin & Stan Chervin, "Moneyball"
Who Should Win: Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin & Stan Chervin, "Moneyball"

Best Animated Feature:
Who Will Win: "Rango"
Who Could Win: "Chico and Rita"
Who Should Win: "Rango"

Best Foreign Language FIlm:
Who Will Win: "A Separation"
Who Could Win: "Monsieur Lazhar"
Who Should Win: "A Separation"

Best Documentary Feature:
Who Will Win: "Undefeated"
Who Could Win: "Pina," "Paradise Lost 3" or "Hell and Back Again"
Who Should Win: "Pina"

Best Cinematography:
Who Will Win: Robert Richardson, "Hugo"
Who Could Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, "The Tree of Life"
Who Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, "The Tree of Life"

Best Film Editing:
Who Will Win: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Who Could Win: Thelma Shoonmaker, "Hugo"
Who Should Win: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

Best Art Direction:
Who Will Win: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo, "Hugo"
Who Could Win: Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould, "The Artist"
Who Should Win: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo, "Hugo"

Best Costume Design:
Who Will Win: Mark Bridges, "The Artist"
Who Could Win: Arianne Phillips, "W.E."
Who Should Win: Arianne Phillips, "W.E."

Best Original Score:
Who Will Win: Ludovic Bource, "The Artist"
Who Could Win: Howard Shore, "Hugo"
Who Should Win: Alberto Iglesias, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Best Original Song:
Who Will Win: "Man or Muppet" ("The Muppets")
Who Could Win: "Real In Rio" ("Rio")
Who Should Win: "Man or Muppet" ("The Muppets")

Best Sound Editing:
Who Will Win: Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty, "Hugo"
Who Could Win: Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom, "War Horse"
Who Should Win: Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis, "Drive"

Best Sound Mixing:
Who Will Win: Tom Fleischman and John Midgley, "Hugo"
Who Could Win: Gary Rydstorm, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson, "War Horse"
Who Should Win: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson, "The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo"

Best Visual Effects:
Who Will Win: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett, "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
Who Could Win: TIm Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2"
Who Should Win: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett, "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"

Best Makeup:
Who Will Win: Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, "The Iron Lady"
Who Could Win: Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2"
Who Should Win: Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2"

Best Animated Short:
Who Will Win: "The Fantastic Flying Books of Morris Lessmore"
Who Could Win: "La Luna"
Who Should Win: "Wild Life"

Best Live Action Short:
Who Will Win: "Raju"
Who Could Win: "The Shore"
Who Should Win: "Raju"

Best Documentary Short:
Who Will Win: "Saving Face"
Who Could Win: "Incident in New Baghdad"
Who Should Win: "Saving Face"

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  • Matt | February 27, 2012 12:50 AMReply


  • John | February 26, 2012 4:13 PMReply

    ok, i'll give you that, rise of the planet of the apes, should win visual effects, but i still think transformers should win sound editing and sound mixing

  • WhatTheWhat | February 26, 2012 3:35 PMReply

    In what way were transformers effects better than Rise?

  • John | February 26, 2012 1:37 PMReply

    Transformers Dark of the Moon should win all of it's nominations, best sound editing, best sound mixing, and best visual effects, just because it's a Michael Bay film, doesn't mean it shouldn't win, it clearly is the best in all three of these categories.

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