Updated Oscar Predictions

By thelostboy | The Lost Boys December 7, 2009 at 4:34AM

It seems like we've hit that period of time when you can pretty much find reason to update your Oscar predictions every other day. Since I'm about to head off to Dubai for a week and fear "Oscar" might be too gay a term for me to be able to type into computers there without being beheaded, I figured I'd do one more update before I go. In the wake of the National Board of Review and increasing knowledge of December's once question marks, it's probably a good idea anyway. Here's my rundown of the big eight categories, with the suggested nominees in bold.
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It seems like we've hit that period of time when you can pretty much find reason to update your Oscar predictions every other day. Since I'm about to head off to Dubai for a week and fear "Oscar" might be too gay a term for me to be able to type into computers there without being beheaded, I figured I'd do one more update before I go. In the wake of the National Board of Review and increasing knowledge of December's once question marks, it's probably a good idea anyway. Here's my rundown of the big eight categories, with the suggested nominees in bold.

BEST PICTURE

Locks:
Up In The Air
The Hurt Locker
Precious
Invictus

Very Likely:
Up
An Education
Nine

Hanging In There:
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man

For That Last Slot:
It's a serious shitshow for this last slot. Any of the following stands something of a chance, depending on what happens in the next month or so: Avatar, Julie & Julia, The Last Station, The Blind Side, A Single Man, District 9, Star Trek, Bright Star and The Road. Having seen the disaster that is The Lovely Bones (hopefully more on that later this week), I can't imagine it getting in, but some people are somehow taking to it, so I guess it should be included here as well. For now, I'm going with The Last Station, only by default and fear of believing in Avatar.

The rest of the categories after the jump...

BEST DIRECTOR

Locks:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Jason Reitman, Up In The Air

Six Directors, Three Slots:
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Lee Daniels, Precious
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Rob Marshall, Nine
Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Lone Scherfig, An Education

We Just Don't Know:
James Cameron, Avatar


BEST ACTOR

All Locks?:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Fighting For Final Slot:
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Viggo Mortensen, The Road


BEST ACTRESS

Locks:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Very Likely:
Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Final Slot Madness Again:
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Last Station
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Locks:
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education

Likely:
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Rallying:
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Which One?
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Possible:
Peter Sarsgaard, An Education
Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Locks:
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the novel by Sapphire
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air

Fight For The Last 3 Slots:
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air

Judi Dench, Nine
Samantha Morton, The Messenger


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Locks:
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

Very Likely:
Inglourious Basterds

Last Slot:
Bright Star
The Messenger
(500) Days of Summer
The White Ribbon


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Locks:
Up In The Air

Very Likely:
Precious
An Education

Last Two Slots:
Invictus
Julie & Julia

A Single Man
Nine
The Last Station
Fantastic Mr. Fox

This article is related to: Awards Season