Weekly Oscar Prediction Update: 08/12/10

By thelostboy | The Lost Boys December 8, 2010 at 1:37AM

Things are getting heated. The first burst of Oscar precursors have reared their heads and now the race is more or less clear. As far as I can tell, most major races have narrowed to 6-8 potential nominees (or 13-14 for the best picture top ten), and the next burst of precursors should probably make those numbers even smaller.
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Things are getting heated. The first burst of Oscar precursors have reared their heads and now the race is more or less clear. As far as I can tell, most major races have narrowed to 6-8 potential nominees (or 13-14 for the best picture top ten), and the next burst of precursors should probably make those numbers even smaller.

Here's what I'm thinking right now.. with top ten (or twenty, in the case of best picture) lists in each of the major categories. This COULD very well change in the next week, when the NY & LA critics, the Golden Globes, the SAGS, AND the Critics Choices all announce (check out early predictions for all of those awards here). But I've definitely never been so confident this is where things are heading:

BEST PICTURE
1. The King's Speech (1)
2. The Social Network (2)
3. Inception (3)
4. Toy Story 3 (4)
5. True Grit (8)
6. The Fighter (5)
7. The Kids Are All Right (7)
8. 127 Hours (6)
9. Black Swan (10)
10. Winter's Bone (9)

11. Rabbit Hole (12)
12. Another Year (13)
13. The Town (11)
14. Blue Valentine (15)
15. The Ghost Writer (16)
16. The Way Back (14)
17. How Do You Know (17)
18. Somewhere (18)
19. Secretariat (18)
20. Made in Dagenham (20)

The rest of the categories after the jump.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception (4)
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (7)
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (5)

6. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3)
7. David O. Russell, The Fighter (6)
8. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (8)
9. Ben Affleck, The Town (9)
10. John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole (-)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (1)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (2)
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (3)
4. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (4)
5. Robert Duvall, Get Low (6)

6. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (9)
8. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (8)
9. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (7)
10. Leonardo diCaprio, Inception (10)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (1)
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (3)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (4)
5. Lesley Manville, Another Year (5)

6. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (6)
7. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (7)
8. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham (8)
9. Naomi Watts, Fair Game (9)
10. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love (10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (1)
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3)
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (4)
5. Matt Damon, True Grit (7)

6. Jeremy Renner, The Town (5)
7. Ed Harris, The Way Back (6)
8. Bill Murray, Get Low (8)
9. Sam Rockwell, Conviction (-)
10. Vincent Cassel, Black Swan (-)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (4)
3. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (6)
4. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (2)
5. Amy Adams, The Fighter (3)

6. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (6)
7. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (9)
8. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (7)
9. Sissy Spacek, Get Low (-)
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy (8)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King's Speech (1)
2. The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Another Year (3)
4. Inception (4)
5. Black Swan (7)

6. Blue Valentine (6)
7. The Fighter (5)
8. The Illusionist (9)
9. Get Low (10)
10. Animal Kingdom (-)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network (1)
2. Toy Story 3 (2)
3. True Grit (3)
4. Winter's Bone (5)
5. Rabbit Hole (4)

6. 127 Hours (6)
7. The Town (7)
8. The Way Back (8)
9. How To Train Your Dragon (9)
10. The Ghost Writer (10)

This article is related to: Awards Season