Weekly Prediction Update: Oscars 13/10/10

by thelostboy
October 14, 2010 3:56 AM
6 Comments
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To supplement each Wednesday's Oscar column (which today offers 10 "underdog actors" worthy of consideration), I'm offering a weekly update of Oscar predictions with 9 of the major categories ranked in order of personal preference of probability (foreign film - which just announced its final list - was this week's new addition, wiith more categories will be added through the weeks). This'll go on between now and nomination morning. Obviously, some weeks will have very little to offer in terms of how much really changes, particularly between now and December. But for what it's worth, here's what I think is gonna go down, with the predicted nominees in bold.. and note that #1 is not necessarily the predicted winner, just the most likely to get a nomination. The previous week's ranking is in brackets beside it.

BEST PICTURE
1. The King's Speech (1)
2. The Social Network (2)
3. Inception (5)
4. Toy Story 3 (4)
5. 127 Hours (3)
6. The Kids Are All Right (6)
7. Another Year (7)
8. True Grit (8)
9. Black Swan (12)
10. The Fighter (14)

11. Secretariat (13)
12. Made in Dagenham (11)
13. Rabbit Hole (9)
14. The Town (10)
15. Winter's Bone (16)
16. The Way Back (15)
17. How Do You Know? (-)
18. Waiting For "Superman" (-)
19. Love and Other Drugs (-)
20. Somewhere (-)

The rest of the categories after the jump.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3)
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (4)
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception (5)

6. Mike Leigh, Another Year (6)
7. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (9)
8. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (8)
9. David O. Russell, The Fighter (10)
10. Ben Affleck, The Town (7)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (1)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (2)
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (3)
4. Robert Duvall, Get Low (4)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (5)

6. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (7)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (8)
8. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (6)
9. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (9)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (-)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1)
2. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (3)
4. Lesley Manville, Another Year (4)
5. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (9)

6. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham (6)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (5)
8. Diane Lane, Secretariat (8)
9. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (-)
10. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (7)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Christian Bale, The Fighter (3)
4. Matt Damon, True Grit (4)
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6)

6. John Malkovich, Secretariat (7)
6. Jeremy Renner, The Town (5)
8. Bill Murray, Get Low (9)
9. Colin Farrell, The Way Back (8)
10. Jack Nicholson, How Do You Know? (-)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (2)
3. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (3)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (4)
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (5)

6. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (6)
7. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (7)
8. Amy Adams, The Fighter (8)
9. Elle Fanning, Somewhere (9)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back (-)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King's Speech (1)
2. The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Another Year (3)
4. Inception (4)
5. How Do You Know? (-)

6. Black Swan (6)
7. Made in Dagenham (5)
8. The Fighter (7)
9. Somewhere (10)
10. Blue Valentine (8)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network (1)
2. Toy Story 3 (2)
3. True Grit (3)
4. Rabbit Hole (4)
5. 127 Hours (5)

6. Winter's Bone (6)
7. The Town (7)
8. How To Train Your Dragon (8)
9. The Way Back (9)
10. Love and Other Drugs (-)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Of Gods and Men (France)
2. Biutiful (Mexico)
3. Incendies (Canada)
4. Life Above All (South Africa)
5. In a Better World (Denmark)

6. Son of Babylon (Iraq)
7. Even The Rain (Spain)
8. Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Thailand)
9. Hermano (Venezuela)
10. Outside the Law (Algeria)

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6 Comments

  • Tom Haggas | October 18, 2010 4:11 AMReply

    No love for Never Let Me Go or Biutiful?!? Really?

    I gotta disagree. Plus, Toy Story 3 is way too high.

    My list: www.OscarRadar.com

  • Paul | October 15, 2010 3:13 AMReply

    Why is Toy Story an Adapted Screenplay? I'm just curious.

  • Albert | October 15, 2010 2:49 AMReply

    You either haven't seen "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" (the original Swedish version) or you don't appreciate good foreign films. Noomi Rapace was terrific in it, and that film should definitely have been Sweden's candidate for Best Foreign Language Films. If not, it should be among the nominees for Best Picture.

  • TC Kirkham | October 14, 2010 7:37 AMReply

    It is a true crime that no one is even looking at what I personally feel are two of the best performances of the year - Ben Mendelsohn for Animal Kingdom as best Actor and Justin Timberlake for The Social Network as supporting actor - he picks up and walks away with the film from the second he first hits the screen - AND he completely blows Andrew Garfield's performance out of the water. While I love Garfield's performance as well, Timberlake is just that much better...and really DESERVES a nomination as does Mendlesohn, IMHO...

  • Brandon | October 14, 2010 5:23 AMReply

    I'm shocked you put Inception so (comparatively) low on Original Screenplay. I understand they snubbed The Dark Knight but this is a whole different game. "Weird thinkers" tend to get a lot of attention look at how successful Kaufman has been.

  • Carter | October 13, 2010 7:43 AMReply

    What a Slow Movie Year!

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