Weekly Prediction Update: Oscars 13/10/10

By thelostboy | The Lost Boys October 14, 2010 at 3:56AM

To supplement each Wednesday's Oscar column (which today offers 10 "underdog actors" worthy of consideration), I'm offering a weekly update of Oscar predictions with 9 of the major categories ranked in order of personal preference of probability (foreign film - which just announced its final list - was this week's new addition, wiith more categories will be added through the weeks). This'll go on between now and nomination morning. Obviously, some weeks will have very little to offer in terms of how much really changes, particularly between now and December. But for what it's worth, here's what I think is gonna go down, with the predicted nominees in bold.. and note that #1 is not necessarily the predicted winner, just the most likely to get a nomination. The previous week's ranking is in brackets beside it.
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To supplement each Wednesday's Oscar column (which today offers 10 "underdog actors" worthy of consideration), I'm offering a weekly update of Oscar predictions with 9 of the major categories ranked in order of personal preference of probability (foreign film - which just announced its final list - was this week's new addition, wiith more categories will be added through the weeks). This'll go on between now and nomination morning. Obviously, some weeks will have very little to offer in terms of how much really changes, particularly between now and December. But for what it's worth, here's what I think is gonna go down, with the predicted nominees in bold.. and note that #1 is not necessarily the predicted winner, just the most likely to get a nomination. The previous week's ranking is in brackets beside it.

BEST PICTURE
1. The King's Speech (1)
2. The Social Network (2)
3. Inception (5)
4. Toy Story 3 (4)
5. 127 Hours (3)
6. The Kids Are All Right (6)
7. Another Year (7)
8. True Grit (8)
9. Black Swan (12)
10. The Fighter (14)

11. Secretariat (13)
12. Made in Dagenham (11)
13. Rabbit Hole (9)
14. The Town (10)
15. Winter's Bone (16)
16. The Way Back (15)
17. How Do You Know? (-)
18. Waiting For "Superman" (-)
19. Love and Other Drugs (-)
20. Somewhere (-)

The rest of the categories after the jump.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3)
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (4)
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception (5)

6. Mike Leigh, Another Year (6)
7. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (9)
8. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (8)
9. David O. Russell, The Fighter (10)
10. Ben Affleck, The Town (7)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (1)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (2)
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (3)
4. Robert Duvall, Get Low (4)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (5)

6. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (7)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (8)
8. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (6)
9. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (9)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs (-)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1)
2. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (3)
4. Lesley Manville, Another Year (4)
5. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (9)

6. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham (6)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (5)
8. Diane Lane, Secretariat (8)
9. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (-)
10. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (7)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Christian Bale, The Fighter (3)
4. Matt Damon, True Grit (4)
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6)

6. John Malkovich, Secretariat (7)
6. Jeremy Renner, The Town (5)
8. Bill Murray, Get Low (9)
9. Colin Farrell, The Way Back (8)
10. Jack Nicholson, How Do You Know? (-)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (2)
3. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (3)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (4)
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (5)

6. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (6)
7. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (7)
8. Amy Adams, The Fighter (8)
9. Elle Fanning, Somewhere (9)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back (-)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King's Speech (1)
2. The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Another Year (3)
4. Inception (4)
5. How Do You Know? (-)

6. Black Swan (6)
7. Made in Dagenham (5)
8. The Fighter (7)
9. Somewhere (10)
10. Blue Valentine (8)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network (1)
2. Toy Story 3 (2)
3. True Grit (3)
4. Rabbit Hole (4)
5. 127 Hours (5)

6. Winter's Bone (6)
7. The Town (7)
8. How To Train Your Dragon (8)
9. The Way Back (9)
10. Love and Other Drugs (-)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Of Gods and Men (France)
2. Biutiful (Mexico)
3. Incendies (Canada)
4. Life Above All (South Africa)
5. In a Better World (Denmark)

6. Son of Babylon (Iraq)
7. Even The Rain (Spain)
8. Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Thailand)
9. Hermano (Venezuela)
10. Outside the Law (Algeria)