Weekly Oscar Prediction Update: 17/11/10

by thelostboy
November 17, 2010 4:38 AM
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Here's another weekly update of the Oscar prediction charts to supplement Wednesday's awards column on indieWIRE (which this week discusses the worst recent snubs in the best original song category).

Last week I did a full update with commentary for the major categories, so for now these charts are all that time allows. There's predictions in 8 of the major categories ranked in order of personal preference of probability + a weekly "special edition" (song & score this week in honor of the aforementioned indieWIRE article). This'll go on between now and nomination morning. Obviously, some weeks will have more to offer than others. But for what it's worth, here's what I think is gonna go down, with the predicted nominees in bold.. and note that #1 is not necessarily the predicted winner, just the most likely to get a nomination. The previous week's ranking is in brackets beside it.

BEST PICTURE
1. The King's Speech (1)
2. The Social Network (2)
3. Inception (6)
4. Toy Story 3 (4)
5. 127 Hours (5)
6. The Kids Are All Right (4)
7. The Fighter (7)
8. True Grit (8)
9. Black Swan (13)
10. Winter's Bone (10)

11. Rabbit Hole (12)
12. The Way Back (9)
13. Another Year (11)
14. The Town (15)
15. Blue Valentine (17)
16. The Ghost Writer (18)
17. Made in Dagenham (15)
18. How Do You Know (20)
19. Secretariat (16)
20. Somewhere (-)

The rest of the categories after the jump.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (2)
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (3)
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception (4)
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (7)

6. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (8)
7. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right (5)
8. David O. Russell, The Fighter (8)
9. Peter Weir, The Way Back (6)
10. Ben Affleck, The Town (10)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (1)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (2)
3. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (3)
4. Robert Duvall, Get Low (4)
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (5)

6. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (7)
7. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (8)
8. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (6)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (9)
10. Stephen Dorff, Somewhere (10)


BEST ACTRESS
1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (1)
2. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (3)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (5)
5. Lesley Manville, Another Year (4)

6. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (6)
7. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (7)
8. Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (-)
9. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham (8)
10. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs (10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (2)
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (1)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (3)
4. Matt Damon, True Grit (5)
5. Ed Harris, The Way Back (4)

6. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (6)
7. Jeremy Renner, The Town (7)
8. Colin Farrell, The Way Back (8)
9. Bill Murray, Get Low (-)
10. Sam Rockwell, Conviction (10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (1)
2. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (2)
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter (5)
4. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham (3)
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (6)

6. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (7)
7. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (4)
8. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, The Way Back (9)
10. Elle Fanning, Somewhere (10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King's Speech (1)
2. The Kids Are All Right (2)
3. Another Year (3)
4. Inception (4)
5. The Fighter (6)

6. Blue Valentine (9)
7. Black Swan (5)
8. How Do You Know? (9)
9. The Illusionist (-)
10. Somewhere (10)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network (1)
2. Toy Story 3 (2)
3. True Grit (3)
4. Rabbit Hole (4)
5. Winter's Bone (5)

6. 127 Hours (6)
7. The Town (7)
8. The Way Back (8)
9. How To Train Your Dragon (9)
10. The Ghost Writer (10)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. "We Belong Together" (Toy Story 3)
2. "You Haven't Seen The Last of Me" (Burlesque)
3. "Shine" (Waiting For Superman)
4. "I See The Light" (Tangled)
5. "Me and Tennessee" (Country Strong)

6. "Bound To You" (Burlesque)
7. "If I Rise" (127 Hours)
8. "Better Days" (Eat Pray Love)
9. “Sticks & Stones” (How to Train Your Dragon)
10. “Nothing” (Why Did I Get Married Too?)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Inception
2. The King's Speech
3. How To Train Your Dragon
4. Never Let Me Go
5. 127 Hours

6. Toy Story 3
7. The Social Network
8. True Grit
9. The Tempest
10. Biutiful

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