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Analyst Already Predicting $1.2 Billion Box Office For 'Star Wars: Episode 7'

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by Kevin Jagernauth
July 9, 2013 11:20 AM
10 Comments
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With the last two years finding Disney dropping two expensive mega-bombs -- "John Carter" which hit the studio for $200 million in losses and "The Lone Ranger" expected to wind up in the negative somewhere between $150-190 million -- you might think that shareholders and Wall Street types would be getting nervous. You would be wrong. You see, Disney has a little lightsaber in their corner that is glowing so promisingly that people are already beginning to count the money the studio is going to mint on "Star Wars: Episode 7." Even though it's not due in theaters until 2015...

Variety reports that even though "The Lone Ranger" tanked on the weekend, Disney's stock prices went up on Monday, and it's all due to "Star Wars: Episode 7." So how much cheddar is this going to pour on the crisp nachos that is Disney's bank account? According to Credit Suisse’s Michael Senn: $1.2 billion in box office, plus whatever ungodly amount more from merchandising, with a staggeringly precise figure of $733 million in profits predicted... just from the first film

Ordinarily, we'd go on about how predicting box office for a movie that's due in two years is sort of the worst -- okay, it is -- but really, it's not a matter of if "Star Wars: Episode 7" will cross $1 billion, it's by how much. This is a franchise that can keep serving up diminishing returns, and fans will gripe, complain, sign up for boycotts and then put on their Boba Fett t-shirt and line up on opening day to see whatever is being dished up next.

If anything, we can only imagine that behind-the-scenes, the pressure on J.J. Abrams and co. to deliver an experience that not only pleases fans but hits the four quadrant sweet spot Disney needs is growing. It's interesting to note that the prediction by Senn in box office dollars is less than the $1.5 billion earned by "The Avengers" -- has Marvel taken over as the most valuable cinematic brand at Disney? We'll see, but something tells that if Abrams hits it out of the park, that $1.2 billion figure could be much, much more.

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10 Comments

  • Glass | July 10, 2013 4:38 AMReply

    I'd go so far as to say $1.5 billi... Think about it. The release of this movie is going to be fucking HUGE. Maybe not Episode I-huge - since the brand's been tarnished by the prequels - but give it the average JJ Abrams movie trailer treatment and you've got an absolute monster on your hands.

  • Luke Skyrunner | July 9, 2013 8:00 PMReply

    The Sith have taken over Hollywood. :P

  • Mark | July 9, 2013 3:39 PMReply

    It's kind of sad that Star Wars will end up this way. No matter how you felt about the prequels they were one man's vision, full of his quirks and idiosycrancies and cornall, hokey sense of adventure and love of art, culture and history. Abrams' films are just corporate cash grabs, he puts nothing of himself into his movies, i've no idea what his interests are in life beyond the blockbuster movies he watched as a youngster. He is the perfect man for this new version of Star Wars in many ways, sadly I have absolutely no desire to see Star Wars diluted like this. I hope all of you who hated the prequels finally get the Star Wars you want to see, at this point I am out though.

  • John | July 10, 2013 1:35 PM

    Mark, you know your going to be one of the people in this article who line up to see Episode 7 in their Bobo Fett t-shirt, right?! lol......

  • Peter | July 10, 2013 1:18 PM

    words cannot describe how stupid you are

  • BIG DICK BLAQUE | July 9, 2013 4:33 PM

    It's an honor to finally share the stage with you, Mr. Lucas.

    I wish you well in your marriage.

  • CB | July 9, 2013 2:21 PMReply

    This is sad. We have no idea about the STORY of this the project. Yet it seems it's already bound to be a major succes no matter how good it is. I wish general movieaudiences were more critical of this cash-grab. It's no different than The Amazing Spider-Man. If the film is any good is secondary??

  • Jedi77 | July 9, 2013 11:59 AMReply

    Interesting math. Iron Man 3's 1.2 billion means about 275 million profit or less.
    Profit north America BO: 50% (200million)
    Profit foreign BO: 33% (275 million)
    Film and promotional budget ca. 200 million.
    Profit about 275 million or less.
    Actually a lousy return on 1.2 billion i box office.

    So is the rest up to their 733 million is just merchandising profit?

  • TK-421 | July 12, 2013 7:10 AM

    Yeah, movies typically make a majority of their opening weekend profits on food/beverage sales (hence the ridiculous price). That way everyone wins, except for us haha.

  • CJJJ | July 10, 2013 5:26 PM

    Actually studios made deals like to have a bigger percentage early on, for example 70% of profits in the first 2 weeks of release, where the bulk of the money is earned. So profits for IM3 would've been substantially bigger than $275m.

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