Probably not. Burton's films have always performed better when linked to established properties -- "Batman," "Planet Of The Apes," "Sleepy Hollow," " Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" and 'Alice' are the blockbusters of his career. When he takes on something more idiosyncratic, there's still a built-in audience, but it's smaller, normally landing somewhere between $40 million ("Mars Attacks") and $60 or 65 million ("Big Fish.") If the films are done at a decent price, like "Frankenweenie" seemingly was, then no great loss. If not, like "Dark Shadows," then it becomes a problem.
All of this probably will come to bear on the choice of the filmmaker's next project. Having just wrapped two features that were in production simultaneously, Burton is taking his time to commit to a next project firmly, although the results for the two 2012 films make some more likely than others. Given the disappointing numbers for "Frankenweenie," one might assume that his "Addams Family" animated project, on which word has been very quiet, or the similarly horror-themed "Night Of The Living," penned by "Dark Shadows" and "AH:VH" writer Seth Grahame-Smith, might not be high priorities, either for Burton or the studios backing the projects.
But one perhaps wonders whether "Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children," which Burton has been developing at 20th Century Fox with Jane Goldman ("Stardust," "X-Men: First Class") writing a script, might be in trouble too. The project -- an adaptation of the novel by Ransom Riggs about a mysterious orphanage -- reads almost like a parody of a Burton film, and being based on a relatively little-known property makes it a tougher roll of the dice. Fox might hope for a "Harry Potter"-type success, but we can see them getting gun-shy, particularly as the set-up doesn't seem to allow big name stars to get involved.
So ultimately, we're like to see Burton's next film being something in the "Alice in Wonderland" mould. There's a few possibilities, most notably a "Pinocchio" movie starring Robert Downey Jr (although there are two rivals in the works, including a stop-motion animated film from Guillermo Del Toro); the megastar has an inviting hole in his schedule before "The Avengers 2," which could make it viable, and Bryan Fuller's script was said to already have the thumbs up from WB executives.
Alternatively, there's "The Hunchback Of Notre Dame," which Burton became attached to last year, and which would star Josh Brolin. Word's been quiet on the film (penned by "Sherlock Holmes 2" writers Kieran and Michele Mulroney) since it was announced, but it might have been ticking along in the background, and Brolin's role in "Men In Black 3" probably makes it more viable than it was before. It too, is set up at Warner Bros, so it could come down to the studio's decision as to which goes first. There's also "Monsterpocalypse," penned by "Frankenweenie" writer John August in the mix too, but with Steven Spielberg's "Robopocalypse" set for 2014, that may scare off more movement on this one.
And then there's "Beetlejuice 2," which again has Grahame-Smith set to write it. It's a little more appetizing than some of the other suggestions, if only because it's a return to the director's glory days, but as "Frankenweenie" just demonstrated, while that might make the Burton die-hards happy, it won't necessarily drawn in general audiences. Speaking of sequels, Burton's name was linked to "Pirates of the Caribbean 5" last year. It seemed unthinkable that he'd consider it at the time, given his own successes, but now the director could use a hit, a reunion with Depp might not be unfeasible (though we've heard that Disney are attempting to lure Gore Verbinski back to the series for the next installment).
All of these would be good for Burton's bank account, but for his soul, not so much. There is, of course, another option -- to make a film about human beings, rather than production design. Even with two disappointments, Burton's name still carries a degree of cachet, and it would be easy enough to get a lower-budget passion project financed -- look at how much fun Sam Raimi had going back to basics with "Drag Me To Hell" after the bloated, big-budget "Spider-Man 3." Finding something small (along the lines of biopic "Big Eyes," with Reese Witherspoon and Ryan Reynolds, from the writers of "Ed Wood," which he's producing, or maybe his long-gestating adaptation of cult novel "Geek Love" ) and profitable would be a smart way to bring out the Burton audience without breaking the bank.
It would be easy for the filmmaker to feel like he has no reason to do so: after all, he made a small, personal project, and all those who admonished him for films like "Alice in Wonderland" stayed away, if the box office returns are anything to go by. But we hope that the last six months encourage him to take more risks, rather than retreating further into his comfort zone.