Oscars: Final Nomination Predictions For The 2013 Academy Awards

Awards

by Oliver Lyttelton
January 8, 2013 2:00 PM
46 Comments

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Maggie Smith - "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Amy Adams "The Master"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"

God, they're all tough this year. Anne Hathaway and Sally Field are the sure things here, Maggie Smith and Helen Hunt are close behind (but don't rule out an upset here, particularly in the latter case; "The Sessions" has been losing steam over time). As for the fifth, Amy Adams was long thought to be in, but her SAG miss (with Nicole Kidman stepping in instead) threw things for a loop. I think Adams is enough of a favorite that she beats Kidman, but they could flip. And Samantha Barks and Ann Dowd are feasible too.

Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln"

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Alan Arkin - "Argo"
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Robert De Niro - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Javier Bardem - "Skyfall"

Ooh, boy. This is one of the most interesting categories we can remember; there's absolutely no indicator of who's going to win. Tommy Lee Jones is probably the front-runner, and will be joined by Robert De Niro and Alan Arkin (though we're not sure we'd deem either of those two genuinely deserving). Philip Seymour Hoffman is said to be front-runner for some, but will disdain for "The Master" see him slip (or has that disdain been overstated?) And with Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson all challenging in the category, has the "Django Unchained" vote been split enough that Leonardo DiCaprio misses out? Especially with Javier Bardem, Eddie Redmayne and Matthew McConaughey not far behind. I may come to regret it, but as colorful villains go, right now, I'm saying Bardem over DiCaprio, even though I'm less convinced that "Skyfall" will do elsewhere.

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Quvenzhane Wallis - "Beasts Of The Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
Marion Cotillard - "Rust & Bone"
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings PLaybook"
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"

A slightly less tight race than Actor, but with just as little locked down. Chastain and Lawrence are safe, and will fight it out for the win (which will probably go to Chastain). Beyond that, Watts is making the cut for "The Impossible" -- she's worked hard for it, and has built up a lot of support as a result. I also think that Quvenzhane Wallis is getting in, though it's not the sure thing it looked a few months ago. What I also believe is that Cotillard is getting in over her countryman Emmanuelle Riva -- I'm just not sure that enough voters saw "Amour," and all the tributes to Cotillard over the months have made her linger on the mind. That said, we could still see Riva in there, or even SAG nominee Helen Mirren.

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Denzel Washington - "Flight"
Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
John Hawkes - "The Sessions"

To all intents and purposes, this is six people pushing for five slots (the likes of Anthony Hopkins, Jean Louis-Trintignant, Suraj Sharma, etc. are very long-shots). When "The Master" first screened, everyone assumed that Joaquin Phoenix was a dead-cert, but between his apathy for the awards season, and a lack of success in the precursors (most notably the SAG, he's deemed to have slipped. Now, it's possible that he's this year's Gary Oldman (who also missed out at the SAG for a tough, cerebral film), but Oldman had the never-been-nominated narrative on his side, and worked hard for it. If Phoenix does make the cut, it's probably Hawkes or Washington who takes the hit, but Jackman and Cooper aren't 100% rock solid either. But honestly, unless the Academy are much higher on "The Master" than most think, I think Phoenix misses out.

Best Director

Ben Affleck - "Argo
Ang Lee - "Life Of Pi"
Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln"
David O. Russell - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty"

As tough a category as exists this year, this has all the competitiveness of Best Picture, but with half the available slots. I'd say that Spielberg, Bigelow, Lee and Affleck are all near-certainties. Russell is dicier (comedy-dramas don't always mean the directors get the credit), but given the poor reviews for "Les Miserables," most of which blame the helming, Tom Hooper's very vulnerable, and we suspect he'll slip out. Tarantino's a possibility too, but I think he'll be on the outside here, while Benh Zeitlin is probably in the eighth position, but won't be nominated. All this said, the DGA will likely be a good indicator (I'm writing this before the guild's nominations are announced).

Best Picture
"Argo"
"Beasts Of The Southern Wild"
"Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
"Django Unchained"
"Les Miserables"
"Life Of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

So yeah, I'm going all in and saying that they'll be a full field of ten nominees; there's enough wealth of choice, and it's spread widely enough, that I can easily see ten getting the 5% of first choice votes needed. As for what those ten films will be, most agree that "Argo," "Les Miserables," "Life Of Pi," "Lincoln," "Silver Linings" and "Zero Dark Thirty" are all pretty safe. The huge box office and mostly positive reviews (and decent showing with the guilds) would seem to point to "Django" being in (though it's always possible it's this year's "Girl With The Dragon Tattoo"), and I have a good feeling about both "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "Moonrise Kingdom," though one of the two may end up slipping out. And for the tenth slot, and you can call me crazy, but we think the SAG ensemble nomination points to "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" as making the cut. But "Skyfall," "The Impossible," "The Intouchables," "Amour" or "The Master" might all sneak in instead.

Best Documentary Short Film

"The Education Of Mohhamad Hussein"
"Inocente"
"Kings Point"
"Open Heart"
"The Perfect Fit"

AKA the one you always blow your Oscar pool on, there are eight nominees, and I haven't seen any of them. But I've gone with the ones above at semi-random; they deal with a Muslim community in the U.S, an undocumented 15-year-old immigrant, a retirement community, a group of Rwandan children, and a look at ballerinas and the men who make their shoes.

Best Animated Short

"Adam And Dog"
"The Eagleman Stag"
"The Fall Of The House of Usher"
"Head Over Heels"
"Paperman"

A ten-strong longlist for the category so far, the biggest name of which is Disney's "Paperman" a sure-fire nominee. The only other famous entrant is a "Simpsons" short, which doesn't feel like it would be the right fit. So, flying mostly blind, I'm going to go with BAFTA winner "The Eagleman Stag," Annie winner "Adam and Dog," "The Fall of the House of Usher" and (picked at random), "Head Over Heels."

Best Live-Action Short Film

"Asad"
"Buzkashi Boys"
"Curfew"
"Death Of A Shadow"
"when you find me"

Again a tricky one to predict, but I feel like the safe best here are the Ron Howard-produced, Bryce Dallas Howard-directed "when you find me" (celeb kudos always goes a certain way), and we've heard good things about "Asad" and "Buzkashi Boys." Beyond that, let's go with "Death Of A Shadow" and "Curfew."

Awards

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46 Comments

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Vitamin168 | January 21, 2013 12:13 PMReply

Looking into the final prediction provided from so called experts in this field from Indiewire, I can only see so many US critics obviously under-estimated the potential of Life of Pi. Before its premiere, many people talked about the potential of losing big money like what has happened in the case of Hugo and how brave Fox was to take on this art-house project. Who would have guessed it has become such a commercial success, exceeding all expectation by resonating a universal appeal. And then before the Oscar nomination, who would have thought it would garner 11 nods from Oscar and 9 nods from BAFTA. Well, it only serves to say that everyone is entitled to their opinion, and those so call critics are no more accurate in predicting just about anything.
zack | January 11, 2013 1:58 AMReply

So, Oscar, one of your films stars an insane bat-vigilante who beats people to a pulp and your plan is to snub this person? Good luck.
Mark | January 9, 2013 11:59 PMReply

I respectfully disagree with my fellow film lover, Tom, below on his assessment of Quvenzhane Wallis' performance in "Beasts of the Southern Wild." I hardly think it was 90 minutes of a kid acting cute. She simply is a very darling and cute little girl. But her performance was much more than just that. As Hushpuppy, Wallis is alternately steely and quiet, precocious, and heartfelt. Hers is the Oscar nomination I am most hopeful for when they are announced Thursday morning.
SON | January 9, 2013 6:53 PMReply

There are a few things to consider. You wrote for instance that Inception won because of CGI. When it's the opposite. Inception won because it had a complete and total lack of CGI and used very authentic visuals. There is almost no CGI. Christopher Nolan is notorious for NOT using CGI. You know the biggest amount of CGI Nolan ever used was? Harvey Dent's face in The Dark Knight. To make him Two-Face. That's the most amount. I don't think it's unreal to think The Dark Knight Rises could get a nod in visual effects. I mean, to me The Avengers is more likely to get the actual trophy because some of that stuff (the floating fortress) is just impossible to ignore. The Dark Knight Rises is also likely to get a lot of stuff for sound mixing, sound editing and sound effects. The technical stuff... yeah, The Dark Knight Rises has a shot. It seems unreal that anyone would think otherwise.
Jon | January 9, 2013 7:14 AMReply

Why would you shut out The Dark Knight Rises for all the technical categories? Get real now, Snow White and the Huntsmen for best visual effects? I highly doubt it. Hans Zimmer deserves some recognition now, his score was outstanding.
Oliver Lyttelton | January 10, 2013 9:39 AM

Oh, look, the nominations are out, and The Dark Knight Rises got nothing, and Snow White got a visual effects nod.
Liz | January 8, 2013 11:28 PMReply

This year is very interesting, as many of the categories seem very uncertain. The Best Supporting Actor category is particularly interesting, a coworker at DISH and I are still debating on whether Javier Bardem or Alan Arkin will take the slot. I canât wait to find out on Thursday, and to see the overall winner when the awards premiere. Iâve watched them every year, so Iâm glad that even with my late work schedule this year, I wonât miss anything with my DISH Hopper. The 2,000 hours of storage space is more than enough room, and I love that because itâs a recording, I will be able to fast forward through the commercials. I canât wait to find out the official nominations, but until then, I agree with a majority of the picks on this list.
jdub | January 8, 2013 10:01 PMReply

Here is hoping the impossible happens and The Impossible gets nominated for Best Picture!!
Paul | January 8, 2013 8:37 PMReply

The Dark Knight Rises sure to be nominated for Best Sound Mixing/Editing and Visual Effects, believe me.
serpico | January 8, 2013 6:43 PMReply

If people don't like "The Master", fine, but Phoenix was a revelation. That "processing" scene, my god, I mean really. And I hope TDKR isn't nominated for best picture. What a mess that was. I honestly don't know why people love that movie. But then again most Nolan fans have their minds made up already before even seeing his movies.
Melissa | January 10, 2013 12:07 AM

I haven't seen The Master yet, but I agree about The Dark Knight Rises. I did not like that movie at all, even though it was full of great actors (albeit acting badly). Someone on here once called TDKR a "bloated mess" -- and that's EXACTLY what it was. My teenager, a very mature and seasoned film watcher, felt the same way.
SON | January 9, 2013 8:14 PM

Actually The Dark Knight Rises also has a lot of fans. The internet just gave everyone a voice. And with that the people who say "negative" things about a movie is more likely to get attention than those who don't. Look on IMDB and the people who say a movie is overrated in the top 250 always get more hits and discussion than those who really love it. This is because of how it's rated. For instance, "Everyone hates the Dark Knight Rises" is a really dumb statement in and of itself. It's got an 8.7 on the IMDB. This puts it higher on that list than more than half the top 250. It has a pretty decent average customer rating on Amazon.com. It has a decent rating on Rotten Tomatoes and Box Office Mojo etc.

See, the thing about The Dark Knight Rises is that it had the unfortunate task of following up the incredible "Dark Knight." A film that was, in many regards, almost exactly like it in its construction. A very oddly messed up plot that most of us were willing to accept as such because Heath Ledger's Joker was just that amazing that a lot of things we'd have normally criticized the movie for we let slide because we were enjoying the ride. And yeah, The Dark Knight is a good movie. The thing is this, though: It was the biggest movie of the the previous decade. From 2001-2010 no movie was heaped upon with nearly as much praise. The Lord of the Rings trilogy couldn't muster that much critical praise, reception or rabid, "We have to see that again!" There was absolutely no way for The Dark Knight Rises to really live up to that. The fact that the reception is as warm as it is surprises me a lot. The Dark Knight Rises disappointment people don't surprise me at all. That always happens. And people always pay more attention to those guys on the internet. Because that's where the action is on the forums. You see websites do that sort of stuff to get hits ALL THE TIME!

After a couple of years you probably won't see as much contempt for The Dark Knight Rises because it'll be out of the news and out of sight in that regard. And then it just might come back later with a warmer reception. Remember, The Empire Strikes Back wasn't exactly well regarded when it came out either. In fact, the reception was lukewarm back then. If there was an internet then you'd have seen people exploding with a lot of things they didn't like. Including possibly even the whole, "That twist sucked." But there was no internet so you sort of didn't have everyone having a voice. Except, of course, critics. Who... back then, tore The Empire Strikes Back to pieces.

So at this point, The Dark Knight Rises might end up having better reception in the future than it does now. But... the reception now (at least if we're going by regular people rating it and whatnot) is not exactly bad if we're going based off of Amazon reviews and IMDB and all those other places. The public seems to be more receptive than people let on. Like I said, it's easier to pay attention to the negative stuff. And because it's easier to pay attention to we tend to think that's the majority. In reality the real majority is people who... sort of don't care. They actually make up the most of it. But because they don't care they typically don't post about it. For as many people who saw The Dark Knight Rises there are likely to be tons and tons who saw it and just thought "Eh..." They might've thought it was good... might've thought it was bad but really didn't care too much to jump online and let people know. If an article online gets 1,000,000 views and only one thousand comments that's still a lot less than 1%. And that's not even counting the guy who comes back and comments again and again and again and replies to one comment after another. Meaning that of the 1,000,000 people who read there are still tons who simply kept their thoughts to themselves.

The reception of movies is pretty similar. Especially for ones like The Dark Knight Rises. It gets out there because it's got some huge reception behind it. But it's also so diverse. The same thing, ironically, happened with The Dark Knight. Where the people who said negative things about it got a lot more attention than the people who said so many positive things. With The Dark Knight it got to the point where critics were uh, covered in News Stories. And yeah, a lot of Batman fans (not actually Nolan fans, mostly just Batman) jumped on any critic or dared to do so (in contrast: Nolan fans didn't jump all over anyone who dared to criticize Inception... but you'll always have fans of a particular director who will jump up to defend their director--The Hobbit, anyone?)

So FLARE, the reason you see more opposite opinions is that they're the ones that people promote. That's the thing that will whip people up into a frenzy. That garners hits to websites and blogs. And let's not forget that there were some who were "disappointed" in the movie while still thinking it was quite good. Or were disappointed but didn't hate it. Or who may have thought it was overrated but didn't think that was bad. It doesn't seem like a lot of people hated it. And to say "everyone" is a bit of a stretch. That wouldn't explain the repeat business or the warm reception it has on those websites.
pmanzana | January 8, 2013 11:27 PM

Time, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, The Hollywood Reporter, The Daily Beast, RollingStone, The Denver Post, The New York Post, Richard Roeper, and The AFI all named the Dark Knight Rises one of the year's best. These people hardly constitute comic book fanboys. Also, FLARE, looking at comments on specific film blogs hardly is representative of the greater movie going public-It's just a small piece of people who watch movies.
Paul | January 8, 2013 11:02 PM

I doubt it:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_dark_knight_rises/
http://www.metacritic.com/feature/best-of-2012-user-poll-results
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1345836/
http://screencrush.com/the-dark-knight-rises-sons-of-anarchy-2012-screencrush-awards/

And many more.
Everyone loves TDKR but he internet has given the opportunity to those who hated their voices heard.
Flare | January 8, 2013 8:55 PM

Actually everyone hates TDKR. I see way more comments like your than the opposite on blogs and forums.
MAL | January 8, 2013 4:04 PMReply

While I don't disagree with your logic and think your pics (for the most part) are reasonable, I hope Moonrise Kingdom gets more love. It was the most affecting film I saw all year and I hope that it sees noms for Production Design, Cinematography and (long shot I know) Director. What I absolutely do not understand is why Silver Linings Playbook has been soooo well liked. The leads were charming enough (Jennifer Lawrence was a standout) but listening to the characters yell at each other about football, etc., for two hours (sorry, but De Niro was insufferable) was grating as hell. Put that family in crisis film next to Amour and there's no contest! (And before anyone calls me a film snob -- I believe The Dark Knight Rises definitely deserves a nod.)
jdub | January 8, 2013 10:10 PM

Finally someone else is on here slamming Silver Linings Playbook!! I completely agree with you! De Niro better not get a nomination for that ridiculously unrealistic character and I'll go a step further and say Bradley Cooper was nothing special either.
jengamo | January 8, 2013 3:50 PMReply

Adams will take the Michelle Williams "Blue Valentine" slot in the supporting category (critical darling, but snubbed by the pretentious SAG and ultimately Oscar nominated), Phoenix will take the Oldman/Mara route (snubbed but so highly praised he has to be nominated), and The Master will be nommed for BP instead of... um idk I hope Les Miz. TOM HOOPER IS A HACK.
Wash | January 8, 2013 3:44 PMReply

A total shut-out for Dark Knight Rises? Wouldn't that be a first for a Nolan film?
Jackson | January 8, 2013 3:42 PMReply

This auhor obviously thinks The Master is trash and not serious about being a contender. PSH will take Supporting Actor. I don't think they will give Best Actor and Supporting Actor to Lincoln. The Master has been a complete darling for critic awards this year. To think it won't be serious on anything, well that is just plain stupid. Come on Oliver, have a little common sense.
Michael M. | January 8, 2013 9:23 PM

Because film appraisal has always been about the critics? that one made me laugh.
serpico | January 8, 2013 6:40 PM

I don't care about his antics, if Phoenix isn't at least nominated for Best Actor, then he is never going to win. But, again, it's not like he cares anyways.
Oliver Lyttelton | January 8, 2013 5:55 PM

Calm down. What I think of The Master has nothing to do it (I'm not its biggest fan, but I would definitely take it over a few of the more likely films). It hasn't been a darling at the critics awards; it missed out from the SAG, the DGA and the PGA (which all tend to match up well with the Academy), and both Argo and Zero Dark Thirty have significantly more critics' groups prizes to their name (six and eight, respectively, to The Master's two). I'm not sure what your evidence of 'common sense' is, but it doesn't appear to be 'looking at the evidence on hand.'
Tom | January 8, 2013 3:39 PMReply

Quvenzhane Wallis was fine and all, but I disagree that it was the amazing performance critics are raving about. It's a little kid acting cute for 90 minutes. Big deal.
Melissa | January 10, 2013 12:00 AM

I'm glad I am not the only one who feels this way! A cute little black girl portraying a cute little black girl doesn't take a lot of acting chops. If she gets a nom, it will be robbing someone else of a hard-earned, well-deserved chance. Her time will come if she is indeed a good actor, but it's definitely too soon to tell if she is or not.
Nathan Duke | January 8, 2013 3:16 PMReply

If the milquetoast Academy doesn't at least nominate Phoenix and Riva, I might be tempted not to even watch this year.
Lou | January 8, 2013 2:35 PMReply

As for the Best Actress Award, I cannot believe that the Academy would miss the opportunity of honouring Emmanuelle Riva, also in view of the complexity of the role played.
Lou | January 8, 2013 2:34 PMReply

As for the Best Actress Award, I cannot believe that the Academy would miss the opportunity of honouring Emmanuelle Riva, also in view of the complexity of the role played.
Lou | January 8, 2013 2:34 PMReply

As for the Best Actress Award, I cannot believe that the Academy would miss the opportunity of honouring Emmanuelle Riva, also in view of the complexity of the role played.
Lou | January 8, 2013 2:34 PMReply

As for the Best Actress Award, I cannot believe that the Academy would miss the opportunity of honouring Emmanuelle Riva, also in view of the complexity of the role played.
Lou | January 8, 2013 2:34 PMReply

As for the Best Actress Award, I cannot believe that the Academy would miss the opportunity of honouring Emmanuelle Riva, also in view of the complexity of the role played.
Lou | January 8, 2013 2:34 PMReply

As for the Best Actress Award, I cannot believe that the Academy would miss the opportunity of honouring Emmanuelle Riva, also in view of the complexity of the role played.
Lou | January 8, 2013 2:34 PMReply

As for the Best Actress Award, I cannot believe that the Academy would miss the opportunity of honouring Emmanuelle Riva, also in view of the complexity of the role played.
Lou | January 8, 2013 3:43 PM

I humbly apologize for the multiplication of my comment.
Franka | January 8, 2013 2:17 PMReply

i think the DGAs prolly just proved you wrong about David O Russell.
Oliver Lyttelton | January 8, 2013 5:56 PM

Could be. I was on the fence before the DGA, but my gut still says O Russell.
Dood | January 8, 2013 2:28 PM

Sorry don't know why my comments show up multiple times.
Dood | January 8, 2013 2:26 PM

Sorry don't know why my comments show up multiple times.
Dood | January 8, 2013 2:25 PM

Sorry don't know why my comments show up multiple times.
Dood | January 8, 2013 2:16 PMReply

FYI: You said Pixar's 'Paperman,' it should be Disney's 'Paperman'
Haven | January 8, 2013 2:14 PMReply

"Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"? Serioulsy?
Ellen | January 8, 2013 2:14 PMReply

Good picks
Dood | January 8, 2013 2:14 PMReply

FYI: You said Pixar's 'Paperman,' it should be Disney's 'Paperman'

Further proof that Pixar is synonymous with good animation. Not true. haha
Dad Playlist | January 8, 2013 2:13 PMReply

Yep, fixed, thx,
Jesse | January 8, 2013 2:13 PMReply

Tommy Lee Jones has got in the bag for Lincoln
jdub | January 8, 2013 10:14 PM

He deserves it!