By Oliver Lyttelton | www.oliverlyttelton.com December 9, 2013 at 4:51PM
Best Visual Effects Predictions - Monday December 9th
"The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug"
"Iron Man 3"
Best Editing Predictions - Monday December 9th
Joe Walker - "12 Years A Slave"
Christopher Rouse - "Captain Phillips"
Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger - "Gravity"
Colby Parker Jr - "Lone Survivor"
Thelma Schoonmaker - "The Wolf Of Wall Street"
Best Sound Editing Predictions - Monday December 9th
"All Is Lost"
Best Sound Mixing Predictions - Monday December 9th
"All Is Lost"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
Best Picture Chart - Monday December 9th
1. "Gravity" (2)
We weren't sure if critics' groups would go for Alfonso Cuaron's blockbuster ($630 million and counting, for the record), but it shared the top prize from the LAFCA this weekend, showing the breadth of support for it. Expect other films to pick up more SAG and Golden Globes nominations (it only has two actors, and the Globes don't have many tech categories), but that won't stop its momentum. The biggest threat is the 'amusement ride' accusation, so Warners would do well to play up the film's substance .
2. "American Hustle' (5)
The strong showing, including Best Picture, from the NYFCC, was crucial for the film, giving it a big boost ahead of its opening this week. The victory underlined what we'd suspected, that the film's a potential consensus choice -- the right mix of entertaining and substance, without the shock value of "Wolf Of Wall Street" -- that's likely to have strong support from the actors branch, plus the desire to reward David O Russell after two near-misses. Expect a ton of Golden Globes nods this week.
3. "12 Years A Slave" (1)
It's certainly a little surprising that Steve McQueen's films missed out with the major critics' awards this week (though it was victorious with some of the smaller organizations), and comparisons with "The Color Purple" (famously picking up multiple nominations, but not winning any) are starting to loom. That said, this shouldn't be counted out at all: it's still a remarkable piece of work, and the Academy could still go for the more significant choice, when all is said and done.
4. "Saving Mr Banks" (6)
Various prognosticators have been saying this week that studio and Academy sources have been predicting that this will end up walking away with the thing, which probably isn't to be treated lightly. That said, it's easy to condescend to the Academy, and it's not as complete a crowd-pleaser as "The King's Speech" (for example), the Disney-celebrates-itself aspect of the film could put some off, and perhaps most importantly, the box office in the UK, where it opened a week ago, has been disappointing. If this underperforms in the U.S. too, there's no chance it wins Best Picture.
5. "Nebraska" (7)
Bruce Dern is increasingly starting to feel like a front-runner for Best Actor, and the film should do well across the board. Probably still too intimate to challenge for the win, and it's unlikely to be a Globes favorite (not enough famous people in it), but the SAG are likely to make up for that.
6. "Her" (10)
Potentially the major surprise of the season. We'd assumed that the love for the film wouldn't carry across from younger, hipper critics to older voters, but victories with the National Board of Review and the LAFCA suggest we underestimated the universal level of its appeal. The last time an NBR winner missed out on a Best Picture nomination was "Quills" in 2000, and with the LAFCA, it was "American Splendor" in 2003, so we should see Spike Jonze's film pick up a Best Picture nod.
7. "The Wolf Of Wall Street" (3)
Not a major force with the critics' groups so far, but it screened late enough that that's not necessarily a major sign (it'll do better with the Globes this week). But now it's been more widely seen, there's a suspicion that it's going to be too edgy and button-pushing for the Academy. Scorsese has enough support that a nomination should be assured, but a win is less likely, despite some of the raves.
8. "Captain Phillips" (4)
Most have assumed this would be a nominee since it opened in October, but... what if it isn't? We've been saying for a while that, though it's well-liked, it's more of a second or third favorite movie, and without the crucial first-choice votes, it could end up missing the cut. Still, not to be dismissed yet -- let's see how the Globes and Guilds take to it.
9. "Philomena" (8)
The Weinstein Company's campaign has kicked into gear finally, and this does seem to be in the lead position for the moment, But if it misses a step at the Globes, expect them to switch streams. It's incredibly well-liked among the Academy membership, but did Harvey misstep with his attack on Kyle Smith and his negative New York Post review?
10. "Inside Llewyn Davis" (13)
Having started to worry a little about the film's chances, we're feeling a little better about it after the wave of love that accompanied the film's release this past weekend. But the film remains a prickly customer, and it could have used more of a boost from the critics' groups this week. We'll have our fingers crossed, but it'll likely go down to the wire.
11. "Lee Daniels' The Butler" (9)
It's not often that we say this, but the Golden Globes, and the SAG ensemble prize will be sort of crucial here, giving the film precursor attention it's unlikely to get elsewhere (even the National Board of Review ignored it). Other prognosticators have more faith in this than we do, but it's worth pointing out that it's unlikely to pick up many other nominations -- Oprah Winfrey will figure in, and we're predicting make-up too, but without many other hopefuls, it has more of an uphill battle.
12. "All Is Lost" (15)
We'd thought this was fading, but a fairly decent showing with last week's awards, in particular Robert Redford's Best Actor win in New York, gives it a boost. It's liked and respected by most that see it: with any luck, that victory will give more voters the impetus to check out the screener, and it could tick upwards.
13. "Dallas Buyers Club" (14)
Jared Leto increasingly looks like a frontrunner in his category, which at least helps to keep it visible. In a less competitive year, this would have been popular enough to make it, but the acting prizes are likely its major hopes.
14. "Fruitvale Station" (-)
We'd mostly considered this out of the race, but it's performed strongly with precursors, picking up various Best First Feature nominations. Could it be more of a force than we've been expecting? Our guess is it'll still mostly be absent from the Oscars, but it's worth keeping an eye on in the next month or so.
15. "August Osage County" (12)
A crucial week for the film. An SAG ensemble nomination and Golden Globe Best Comedy/Musical nod at least keep it in the conversation. If it's absent from both, or maybe, either, you can virtually count it out.
Bubbling Under: "Blue Jasmine," "The Book Thief," "Lone Survivor," "Rush"