Better known is Spike Jonze: he was a nominee for his debut "Being John Malkovich," even though the film wasn't a Best Picture contender. That said, Jonze has generally been hipper than the Academy's usual tastes, and the subject matter of his latest, "Her," isn't necessarily going to appeal to voters any more. But it is the director's most personal film, and there's a lot of critical support. If the film can keep up the momentum it's building and break into the Best Picture field, Jonze could well follow it.
As we said, Martin Scorsese and the Coen Brothers are both previous winners in the category (though relatively recent: they won in successive years, 2007 and 2008), and will certainly be competing again. "Inside Llewyn Davis" isn't one of their most accessible films, but we do think it'll be among the Best Picture nominees, and with the pair now in the club, as it were, there's a fair chance of another nomination. As for Scorsese, we have no clue about "The Wolf Of Wall Street" yet, as it's still being finished, but only a fool would doubt him, given he has seven nods in the category.
The four remaining directors are two filmmakers who have previous nominations in the category, without having won, and two who have never picked up nods here, but are certainly thoroughly deserving. Paul Greengrass was honored for "United 93" (another film which didn't get a Best Picture nomination), and has picked up his best notices since that film for "Captain Phillips." It's proven popular with audiences and critics, but given the fierce competition, Greengrass could possibly fall out.
Meanwhile, David O. Russell has nominations for both "The Fighter" and "Silver Linings Playbook" in the last few years, and there's a certain feeling in the air that he's due. But of course, "American Hustle" needs to deliver -- it's still some way off completion, and likely won't be unveiled for another month at least. We've heard some good buzz, but also some suggestion that the film wasn't quite working, so this could still go either way. But if the movie does live up to our hopes, Russell will certainly be a nominee, and might even challenge for the win.
Russell's probably the only filmmaker that could stop this from being a two-horse race, between two directors who would be first-time nominees. Steve McQueen's first two films, "Hunger" and "Shame," weren't really on Academy radars, but "12 Years A Slave" certainly is, with ecstatic reviews and strong box office so far. But even if the film wins Best Picture, which is more than a possibility, McQueen might not necessarily follow it. He dampened down his rather austere style into something more classical, which helps, but he's not yet shown a warmer side to a public persona that can be prickly. While we wish that didn't matter, just look at David Fincher losing out to Tom Hooper for how personality can sometimes matter. The strength of the achievement, and its historical power (McQueen would be the first black director to win Best Picture) may yet win out, but there'll be ups and downs to come.
And in part, that's because of "Gravity," and its director Alfonso Cuaron. For a while, the Mexican filmmaker (nominated three times: for screenplay for "Y Tu Mama Tambien" and "Children Of Men," with an editing nod for the latter as well) was the best helmer that wasn't quite a household name, but the blockbuster success of his space adventure has changed that almost immediately. The film's also more purely a director's vision, with groundbreaking techniques and innovation, and more obviously showy touches. Both are guaranteed to be nominees. But it'll take some time to tell whether this year will mirror the last ceremony, when Ang Lee's visionary 3D "Life Of Pi" film won out over Steven Spielberg's historical epic "Lincoln," or whether it'll be closer to 2010, when voters decided to make history by awarding the statue to Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker" over James Cameron's game-changing VFX extravaganza "Avatar."
Our nominations as it stands below. The Best Picture chart will return next week.
Best Director Predictions - Wednesday October 30th
Alfonso Cuaron - "Gravity"
Paul Greengrass - Captain Phillips"
Steve McQueen - "12 Years A Slave"
David O. Russell - "American Hustle"
Martin Scorsese - "The Wolf Of Wall Street"