Oscars: The Playlist Final Predictions For The 2013 Academy Awards

Awards
by Oliver Lyttelton
February 21, 2013 10:58 AM
15 Comments
  • |

As of Tuesday evening, voting for the 85th Academy Awards is closed. Tardy Academy members still filling out the ballots, sorry, but counting is underway. The results will be announced at the Oscar ceremony on Sunday night, and the nominees now have a few days off from campaigning to catch up on beauty sleep before they head to the Dolby Theater.

So, with voting closed, it seemed like a good time to unveil my final Oscar predictions. As the ostensible awards correspondent for The Playlist, I've been weighing in here and there throughout the season, and my opinions have certainly shifted through the twists and turns of a particularly twisty-and-turny six months or so. It's finally crunch time.

There are essentially four possible narratives that could unfold. 1) "Argo" continues its general awards sweep. 2) The Weinsteins' campaigning pays off in spades, and "Silver Linings Playbook" sweeps. 3) "Lincoln" takes Best Picture, Director and Actor, being deemed the most "important" of the nominees. 4) Everyone's been underestimating "Life Of Pi," and it surprises with the top prize. All are feasible, but as you'll see below, I'm leaning closest to that first narrative. This isn't going to be a year where one film sweeps the board; we're likely to see few films win more than three or four prizes, with the love spread fairly equally.

But I could (and will) be wrong in some categories. You can take a look at my predictions below, with each category ranked in order of likelihood of the nominees taking the prize. And let us know your own predictions in the comments section below. See you back here Sunday night for the results.

Best Documentary Short


1. "Inocente"
2. "Mondays At Racine"
3. "Open Heart"
4. "Redemption"
5. "Kings Point"

Should Win: I've already spoken of my love for "Mondays At Racine," the most emotional, and best-made of the nominees here, about a beauty salon that devotes one day a month to woman undergoing chemotherapy. My fingers are crossed for it.
Will Win: "Inocente" feels like it has the slight edge over 'Racine' -- it's a bit glossier, and a bit more uplifting. But "Open Heart" has a good chance too.

Best Live-Action Short


1. "Curfew"
2. "Death Of A Shadow'
3. "Asad"
4. "Buzkashi Boys"
5. "Henry"

Should Win: The Matthias Schoenaerts-starring "Death of A Shadow," by some distance the best of a weak batch.
Will Win: "Death Of A Shadow" is in with a chance, but I think "Curfew," looking at the recent history of the award, has a better chance. Which will mean the man who wrote the Taylor Lautner vehicle "Abduction" will be an Oscar winner.

Best Animated Short


1. "Paperman
2. "Adam And Dog"
3. "Head Over Heels"
4. "Fresh Guacamole"
5. "The Longest Daycare"

Should Win: A strong field, but Disney's "Paperman" has my heart; a swooningly romantic, beautifully crafted and close-to-revolutionary piece of work.
Will Win: The studios don't often fare well in this category, but "Paperman" has momentum, and manages not to feel too corporate. That said, "Adam and Dog" could upset.

Best Sound Editing


1. "Skyfall"
2. "Life Of Pi"
3. "Argo"
4. "Zero Dark Thirty"
5. "Django Unchained

Should Win: "Zero Dark Thirty" had the most punch to these ears, but this, more than most, is hard for the layman to judge.
Will Win: It generally goes to the noisiest film, or the Best Picture nominee, and I think "Skyfall" will just have the edge over "Life of Pi."

Best Sound Mixing


1. "Les Miserables"
2. "Skyfall"
3. "Argo"
4. "Life Of PI"
5. "Lincoln"

Should Win: Again, hard to judge, but "Les Miserables" probably has my vote.
Will Win: "Les Miserables." If Universal's campaign to raise awareness about the film's live-on-set technique achieved nothing else, it was to get across how tricky it must have been to capture the vocals on set while a rehearsal pianist banged away in the next room. BTW, should "Skyfall" happen to win here, which we doubt, it will be American sound engineer Greg P. Russell's first Academy Award win. He has been nominated for sixteen Academy Awards for Sound, but has never won.

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling


1. "Les Miserables"
2. " The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
3. "Hitchcock"

Should Win: In a year when "Snow White & The Huntsman" has two nominations, "Hitchcock" is still the worst film to get an Oscar nod this year. This wouldn't necessarily be a barrier to it winning here, but it's not like the fat-suit job on Anthony Hopkins was particularly special. As such, I don't care who wins, so long as it's not that.
Will Win: Close between the top two -- Peter Jackson's film has more obvious prosthetics, and the "Lord of the Rings" films went 2/3 in this category. But when a Best Picture nominee is in contention (and it hasn't happened since 'Benjamin Button' in 2008), they tend to win, so I'd lean towards "Les Miserables."

Best Visual Effects


1. "Life Of Pi"
2. "Marvel's The Avengers"
3. "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
4. "Promethus"
5. "Snow White and the Hunstman"

Should Win: 100% "Life of Pi," which might have the most impressive and photo-realistic use of CGI I've ever seen.
Will Win: I suspect the Academy will agree with me on "Life of Pi," especially given that it's the only Best Picture nominee in a field of blockbusters (witness "Hugo" beating "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" last year to see how crucial that is).

Best Original Song


1. "Skyfall" from "Skyfall" - Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
2. "Suddenly" from "Les Miserables" - Claude-Michel Schonberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boubil
3. "Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice" - J. Ralph
4. "Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted" - Walter Murphy and Seth MacFarlane
5. "Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi" - Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri

Should Win: "Skyfall." It's the best Bond theme in decades, a song fit to sit beside "Goldfinger" et al, and the best nominee in the category since "Lose Yourself."
Will Win: No Bond theme has ever won this category, but I think it's going to change, given Adele's status as a Grammy-magnet and just generally well-loved performer. That said, despite the song being deeply dull, don't count out "Les Miserables" entirely.
You might also like:
Free Indie Movies and Documentaries    

15 Comments

  • Rohit | February 24, 2013 2:19 PMReply

    An amateur's predictions:
    Picture - Argo
    Director - Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Actress - Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Supporting Actor - Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio (Argo)
    Original Screenplay - Michael Haneke (Amour)
    Cinematography - Life of Pi
    Foreign Language Film - Amour
    Animated Film - Frankenweenie

  • Civil | February 22, 2013 11:03 PMReply

    Yet another "FINAL PREDICTIONS" post filled with rock-solid predictions in the form of: "most people think [A] will take it, but [B] and [C] have a lot of momentum, so does [D]. Look out for a possible late surge from [E], too. My gut tells me it's one of these five nominees for sure". I know this is just a job for yall but goddamn, quality over quantity, my nigs...

  • Sean | February 22, 2013 1:34 AMReply

    Supporting actor is by far the toughest award....complete toss up.. AS LONG AS ARGO WINS BEST PICTURE I WILL BE HAPPY! Iv said it for months & months b4 it started winnning the slew of awards... IT IS BY FAR THE BEST OVERALL COMPLETE PICUTRE!!!! (& another thing Affleck not gettin a nod is a complete travesty fucking disgrace academy fucking disgrace)

  • Mass | February 23, 2013 4:41 PM

    I called ARGO winning Best Picture the first day this website made their list. Back when we were all pulling for THE MASTER. Back when ARGO wasn't even out in theaters. I would t mind seeing SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK or ARGO taking home best picture. If LINCOLN wins anything besides Best Actor I'll laugh my ass off. It'll be the brginning of the end for the Academy.

  • DG | February 21, 2013 6:44 PMReply

    Would prefer to see Silver Linings take best pic but if that can't happen Argo is a fine second best. ZeroDark thirty was the most over rated movie of the awards season, I found nothing to get excited about there. Lincoln would just be too cliche.

  • Efren | February 21, 2013 1:13 PMReply

    I hope this isn't the case. If some of these predictions are true than the Oscars will be terrible once again.

  • cirkusfolk | February 21, 2013 12:28 PMReply

    I have Amour winning best Foreign film, director, actress and screenplay. Now I think I over did it, but I had to be risky.

  • Mass | February 21, 2013 11:36 AMReply

    If SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK doesn't take home Best Picture, ARGO will. SLP will probably win in the screenwriting and Director category.

    LINCOLN was terrible, the Academy are just Spielberg fanboys, hence their incredibly awful nominations last year: WAR HORSE. Not only was LINCOLN historically innacurate and untruthful about LINCOLN'S true intentions in initiating the bloodiest War in Americas history, the Civil War (it was never a morally fought war, in regards to Slaves, it was a war fought for land and Lincolns beloved Union. Lincoln was a racist bigot like everyone else. Before he was assasinated, he was creating plans on deporting every African American to disease ridding places in South America.) but it also had shoddy writing and terrible pacing. It's a film you "have" to like, simply because of the subject matter.

  • Mass | February 21, 2013 11:36 AMReply

    If SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK doesn't take home Best Picture, ARGO will. SLP will probably win in the screenwriting and Director category.

    LINCOLN was terrible, the Academy are just Spielberg fanboys, hence their incredibly awful nominations last year: WAR HORSE. Not only was LINCOLN historically innacurate and untruthful about LINCOLN'S true intentions in initiating the bloodiest War in Americas history, the Civil War (it was never a morally fought war, in regards to Slaves, it was a war fought for land and Lincolns beloved Union. Lincoln was a racist bigot like everyone else. Before he was assasinated, he was creating plans on deporting every African American to disease ridding places in South America.) but it also had shoddy writing and terrible pacing. It's a film you "have" to like, simply because of the subject matter.

  • Mass | February 21, 2013 11:35 AMReply

    If SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK doesn't take home Best Picture, ARGO will. SLP will probably win in the screenwriting and Director category.

    LINCOLN was terrible, the Academy are just Spielberg fanboys, hence their incredibly awful nominations last year: WAR HORSE. Not only was LINCOLN historically innacurate and untruthful about LINCOLN'S true intentions in initiating the bloodiest War in Americas history, the Civil War (it was never a morally fought war, in regards to Slaves, it was a war fought for land and Lincolns beloved Union. Lincoln was a racist bigot like everyone else. Before he was assasinated, he was creating plans on deporting every African American to disease ridding places in South America.) but it also had shoddy writing and terrible pacing. It's a film you "have" to like, simply because of the subject matter.

  • kindred spirit | February 21, 2013 11:29 AMReply

    AMY ADAMS all the way. And Phoenix and Hoffman. The MASTER should have been nominated- so much more deserving that crap like Les Miz and SLP. PTA is a true auteur- O' Russell is a fool in a nice suit and hipster shades (who gropes his niece).

  • Liam | February 21, 2013 7:41 PM

    "AMY ADAMS all the way. And Phoenix and Hoffman. The MASTER should have been nominated- so much more deserving that crap like Les Miz and SLP. PTA is a true auteur- O' Russell is a fool in a nice suit and hipster shades"

    Yeah I have to agree on this. Worst movies of the year: Les Miserables & SLP. Even Taken 2 was more watchable, and I'm serious.

  • Damian | February 21, 2013 11:15 AMReply

    Which Supporting Actor nominee do you think is undeserving?

  • Jim | February 21, 2013 7:42 PM

    Christoph Watlz was awesome in Django!

  • BEF | February 21, 2013 1:56 PM

    I think the writer sees Hoffman as the only of the five to be deserving of a nomination. I actually agree.

Email Updates