Oscars: The Playlist Final Predictions For The 2013 Academy Awards

Awards
by Oliver Lyttelton
February 21, 2013 10:58 AM
15 Comments
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Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay


1. "Argo" - Chris Terrio
2. "Silver Linings Playbook" - David O. Russell
3. "Lincoln" - Tony Kushner
4. "Life Of Pi" - David Magee
5. "Beasts of the Southern Wild" - Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin

Should Win: A strong field, but I'm almost tempted to go for David Magee, who did the seemingly impossible by making 'Pi' work on screen.
Will Win: One of the toughest categories to predict, and the one I'm going to go back and forth on until the day. Any of the top three stand a very good chance, but with the category having matched up with the WGA seven out of the last ten years, my head says to go with Terrio. But a consolation prize for Russell or Kushner wouldn't surprise me either.

Best Writing - Original Screenplay


1. "Zero Dark Thirty" - Mark Boal
2. "Django Unchained" - Quentin Tarantino
3. "Amour" - Michael Haneke
4. "Moonrise Kingdom" - Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
5. "Flight" - John Gatins

Should Win: Again, lots of strong work here, but I'd lean towards "Moonrise Kingdom," if only because "Zero Dark Thirty" still feels closer to an adaptation than an original screenplay to me, even if it isn't based on a particular source material.
Will Win: Another very tough one, with any of the top three being realistic winners. But again, the WGA have matched up eight out of the last ten years, so I'm going to go with Boal, even if I think he's on a knife-edge with Tarantino.

Best Supporting Actor


1. Robert De Niro - "Silver Linings Playbook"
2. Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"
3. Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
5. Alan Arkin - "Argo"

Should Win: I happen to think that all but one of the nominees are relatively undeserving, so I'd definitely go with Philip Seymour Hoffman, who to my mind gives the finest performance of his career as Lancaster Dodd in "The Master."
Will Win: Agh! More than any other category, this was the toughest to predict, and I suspect a lot of Oscar pools will be won or lost over this one. Almost any of the five could win, but I think that De Niro will just have the edge over Waltz (who's had a late surge in popularity). And Tommy Lee Jones could still get in as well.

Best Supporting Actress


1. Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
2. Sally Field - "Lincoln"
3. Amy Adams - "The Master"
4. Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"
5. Jacki Weaver - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Should Win: Hathaway is astonishing, but Amy Adams' role in "The Master" is less of a cameo, and more of a fully textured human being.
Will Win: Anne Hathaway. There's about a 4% chance of a Sally Field upset, but it's Hathaway all the (hatha)way.

Best Actor


1. Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
2. Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"
3. Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
4. Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
5. Denzel Washington - "Flight"

Should Win: I like all these performance, but Day-Lewis's might be my all-time favorite from the performer; warmer and more human than anything he's done in a couple of decades.
Will Win: Day-Lewis. But if I was going to predict any serious upset, my gut says Phoenix, certainly more so than the competition. This is the same gut that told me that "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" would get a Best Picture nomination, though, so you should probably ignore it.

Best Actress


1. Emmanuelle Riva - "Amour"
2. Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
3. Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"
4. Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
5. Quvenzhane Wallis - "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Should Win: I love the narrative of Riva winning, but Jessica Chastain gave my favorite performance of the five.
Will Win: The tides have been turning towards Emmanuelle Riva in recent weeks, and I think she has the momentum to take her over the line. Voters are aware that Lawrence and Chastain are set for long and awards-packed careers, so probably don't feel an urgency to give them the statuette.

Best Director


1. Ang Lee - "Life Of Pi"
2. Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln"
3. Michael Haneke - "Amour"
4. David O Russell - "Silver Linings Playbook"
5. Benh Zeitlin - "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Should Win: Ang Lee, who does a remarkable job with "Life of Pi," which more than any of the others is very much a directors' movie.
Will Win: In the absence of Ben Affleck, Lee feels like the obvious fit, for the same reasons. Spielberg's film isn't a director's showcase in the way that others are, Haneke's film may be too abrasive to win here, Zeitlin's a first-timer, and Russell will win in the next five years, but for a film more dramatic-leaning and showy than this. Still, it's a close category.

"Argo"
Best Picture


1. "Argo"
2. "Silver Linings Playbook"
3. "Life Of Pi"
4 "Lincoln"
5. "Zero Dark Thirty"
6. "Amour"
7. "Les Miserables"
8. "Django Unchained"
9. "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Should Win: Of these nine, my vote would be with "Zero Dark Thirty," though I don't severely dislike any of them ('Django' is probably my least favorite).
Will Win: With a clean sweep of the guilds, few would bet against "Argo" at this point, even if it's the first film in over two decades to win without a directing nomination. "Silver Linings," "Life Of Pi" and "Lincoln" are all feasible, but none quite seem to have the momentum to topple Affleck's film.

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15 Comments

  • Rohit | February 24, 2013 2:19 PMReply

    An amateur's predictions:
    Picture - Argo
    Director - Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
    Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
    Actress - Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
    Supporting Actor - Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
    Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
    Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio (Argo)
    Original Screenplay - Michael Haneke (Amour)
    Cinematography - Life of Pi
    Foreign Language Film - Amour
    Animated Film - Frankenweenie

  • Civil | February 22, 2013 11:03 PMReply

    Yet another "FINAL PREDICTIONS" post filled with rock-solid predictions in the form of: "most people think [A] will take it, but [B] and [C] have a lot of momentum, so does [D]. Look out for a possible late surge from [E], too. My gut tells me it's one of these five nominees for sure". I know this is just a job for yall but goddamn, quality over quantity, my nigs...

  • Sean | February 22, 2013 1:34 AMReply

    Supporting actor is by far the toughest award....complete toss up.. AS LONG AS ARGO WINS BEST PICTURE I WILL BE HAPPY! Iv said it for months & months b4 it started winnning the slew of awards... IT IS BY FAR THE BEST OVERALL COMPLETE PICUTRE!!!! (& another thing Affleck not gettin a nod is a complete travesty fucking disgrace academy fucking disgrace)

  • Mass | February 23, 2013 4:41 PM

    I called ARGO winning Best Picture the first day this website made their list. Back when we were all pulling for THE MASTER. Back when ARGO wasn't even out in theaters. I would t mind seeing SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK or ARGO taking home best picture. If LINCOLN wins anything besides Best Actor I'll laugh my ass off. It'll be the brginning of the end for the Academy.

  • DG | February 21, 2013 6:44 PMReply

    Would prefer to see Silver Linings take best pic but if that can't happen Argo is a fine second best. ZeroDark thirty was the most over rated movie of the awards season, I found nothing to get excited about there. Lincoln would just be too cliche.

  • Efren | February 21, 2013 1:13 PMReply

    I hope this isn't the case. If some of these predictions are true than the Oscars will be terrible once again.

  • cirkusfolk | February 21, 2013 12:28 PMReply

    I have Amour winning best Foreign film, director, actress and screenplay. Now I think I over did it, but I had to be risky.

  • Mass | February 21, 2013 11:36 AMReply

    If SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK doesn't take home Best Picture, ARGO will. SLP will probably win in the screenwriting and Director category.

    LINCOLN was terrible, the Academy are just Spielberg fanboys, hence their incredibly awful nominations last year: WAR HORSE. Not only was LINCOLN historically innacurate and untruthful about LINCOLN'S true intentions in initiating the bloodiest War in Americas history, the Civil War (it was never a morally fought war, in regards to Slaves, it was a war fought for land and Lincolns beloved Union. Lincoln was a racist bigot like everyone else. Before he was assasinated, he was creating plans on deporting every African American to disease ridding places in South America.) but it also had shoddy writing and terrible pacing. It's a film you "have" to like, simply because of the subject matter.

  • Mass | February 21, 2013 11:36 AMReply

    If SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK doesn't take home Best Picture, ARGO will. SLP will probably win in the screenwriting and Director category.

    LINCOLN was terrible, the Academy are just Spielberg fanboys, hence their incredibly awful nominations last year: WAR HORSE. Not only was LINCOLN historically innacurate and untruthful about LINCOLN'S true intentions in initiating the bloodiest War in Americas history, the Civil War (it was never a morally fought war, in regards to Slaves, it was a war fought for land and Lincolns beloved Union. Lincoln was a racist bigot like everyone else. Before he was assasinated, he was creating plans on deporting every African American to disease ridding places in South America.) but it also had shoddy writing and terrible pacing. It's a film you "have" to like, simply because of the subject matter.

  • Mass | February 21, 2013 11:35 AMReply

    If SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK doesn't take home Best Picture, ARGO will. SLP will probably win in the screenwriting and Director category.

    LINCOLN was terrible, the Academy are just Spielberg fanboys, hence their incredibly awful nominations last year: WAR HORSE. Not only was LINCOLN historically innacurate and untruthful about LINCOLN'S true intentions in initiating the bloodiest War in Americas history, the Civil War (it was never a morally fought war, in regards to Slaves, it was a war fought for land and Lincolns beloved Union. Lincoln was a racist bigot like everyone else. Before he was assasinated, he was creating plans on deporting every African American to disease ridding places in South America.) but it also had shoddy writing and terrible pacing. It's a film you "have" to like, simply because of the subject matter.

  • kindred spirit | February 21, 2013 11:29 AMReply

    AMY ADAMS all the way. And Phoenix and Hoffman. The MASTER should have been nominated- so much more deserving that crap like Les Miz and SLP. PTA is a true auteur- O' Russell is a fool in a nice suit and hipster shades (who gropes his niece).

  • Liam | February 21, 2013 7:41 PM

    "AMY ADAMS all the way. And Phoenix and Hoffman. The MASTER should have been nominated- so much more deserving that crap like Les Miz and SLP. PTA is a true auteur- O' Russell is a fool in a nice suit and hipster shades"

    Yeah I have to agree on this. Worst movies of the year: Les Miserables & SLP. Even Taken 2 was more watchable, and I'm serious.

  • Damian | February 21, 2013 11:15 AMReply

    Which Supporting Actor nominee do you think is undeserving?

  • Jim | February 21, 2013 7:42 PM

    Christoph Watlz was awesome in Django!

  • BEF | February 21, 2013 1:56 PM

    I think the writer sees Hoffman as the only of the five to be deserving of a nomination. I actually agree.

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