Oscars: Predicting The Golden Globe And SAG Nominations

Awards

by Oliver Lyttelton
December 11, 2012 4:02 PM
10 Comments

The Critics Choice Awards nominations, announced this morning? They're for the birds, man. The next couple of days sees the awards nomination announcements keep coming, with two more major precursors being unveiled: the Screen Actors' Guild tomorrow, followed on Thursday by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's Golden Globes awards.

Given that the former shares a similar membership to the Academy, it always offers a few clues (like last year's surprise nominee Demian Bichir), though don't always match up exactly (Armie Hammer and Tilda Swinton were among those honored by the guild who missed out with the Academy). The rightfully derided HFPA are essentially star-fuckers, and in a year in which Oscar nominations will be announced before the Globes are awarded, are less important than ever. But the awards do get more publicity than any other precursor, so they may be able to suggest some influence in some ways, at least with their nominations. And if nothing else, in a year where they can't vote for regulars Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp, it'll be interesting to see who does step in.

We've made our predictions for both the SAGs and the Globes below; let us know your own in the comments section, and check back in the next couple of days to see how they turned out. SAGs below, Globes on page 2.

SAGs

Best Ensemble
"Argo"
"Les Miserables"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

The SAG's equivalent of the Best Picture prize, this was never going to be something that "Life Of Pi" was contending for. We suspect that "The Master" may not have the depth of a supporting cast that usually pays off in this category, but don't be entirely surprised if "Zero Dark Thirty" falls out and Paul Thomas Anderson's film, "Moonrise Kingdom" or "Django Unchained," fall in instead.

Best Male Actor In A Leading Role
Denzel Washington - "Flight"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"
John Hawkes - "The Sessions"
Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Again, this reflects our thinking in terms of the Oscars, though Cooper's neck and neck with Jackman, who might take his place. If the SAG throw in a Demian Bichir-style curveball, it'll be Jean-Louis Trintignant, Richard Gere or (very, very faintly) Denis Lavant.

Best Female Actor In A Leading Role
Emmanuelle Riva - "Amour"
Quvenzhane Wallis - "Beasts Of The Southern Wild"
Rachel Weisz - "The Deep Blue Sea"
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"

With some heat off the critics' awards, our hunch is that Rachel Weisz could surprise with a place in the final five here. But Helen Mirren, Keira Knightely, Marion Cotillard and Naomi Watts are all snapping at her heels.

Best Male Actor In A Supporting Role
Alan Arkin - "Argo"
Leonardo DiCaprio - "Django Unchained"
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Robert De Niro - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Again a tough one to call, but we think the SAGs will take Alan Arkin more seriously than Matthew McConaughey. We have our doubts about the appeal of "Les Miserables" to the SAG, but if they do love it, look for Eddie Redmayne to sneak in here too.

Best Female Actor In A Supporting Role
Ann Dowd - "Compliance"
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Amy Adams - "The Master"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"

Now firmly in the race thanks to some key precursor wins and nominations, we think Ann Dowd gets the surprise indie nomination this year. The rest of the field is business as usual, and yes, Hathaway wins.

Awards

More: Awards, The Amazing Race, The Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild

10 Comments

| Reply
Lara | December 11, 2012 7:03 PMReply

Wallis is not eligible at the SAG. Cotillard is definitely enjoying a better reputation than Weisz among the actors voting for the it. Since they gave it to Christie over Cotillard in 2008, she evolved her statue and they might reward that. Do you really see actors going for a 22 years old girl or Carry 2.0? Personally I think they are gonna go for Cotillard or Mirren.
justin | December 11, 2012 6:33 PMReply

can you redo the SAG best actress category since "beasts" is not being considered by the group.
kendra | December 11, 2012 5:00 PMReply

Can't imagine Adams not getting in. They love her.
Kyle | December 11, 2012 4:38 PMReply

As I recall "Beasts ..." isn't eligible so I don't think Wallis can be nominated in SAG for best actress
Ronnie D. | December 11, 2012 4:24 PMReply

Not to mention the incredible, deeply intimate actings, particularly from Michelle Williams and Rashida Jones.
sg | December 12, 2012 1:13 AM

Sourpuss acting? Did any of you see My Week with Marilyn? I think she should've taken the Oscar.
di | December 11, 2012 6:35 PM

Have to echo Jimmy, how many times is Williams going to pull that depressed indie girl shtick? It's getting tiring.
jimmy | December 11, 2012 5:58 PM

Ronnie D., people may be tired of Michelle Williams' customary sourpuss acting act. It seems that is all Williams is capable of doing as an actress.

I hear the SAG members loved Les Miserables during their screenings, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Eddie Redmayne's name added as Best Supporting Actor.
Ronnie D. | December 11, 2012 4:22 PMReply

It's a shame that really intimate romantic comedies like Celeste and Jesse Forever and Take this Waltz, movies that have more greatly thought out characters and relationships than any of the movies on this list (looking at your especially, Silver Linings Playbook) don't receive any real recognition - there needs to be a change in the whole system.
Rick | December 11, 2012 4:27 PM

You disagree with some of the nominees, so that means "there needs to be a change in the whole system"? That makes a lot of sense.