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Oscars: Predicting The Golden Globe And SAG Nominations

Photo of Oliver Lyttelton By Oliver Lyttelton | The Playlist December 11, 2012 at 4:02PM

The Critics Choice Awards nominations, announced this morning? They're for the birds, man. The next couple of days sees the awards nomination announcements keep coming, with two more major precursors being unveiled: the Screen Actors' Guild tomorrow, followed on Thursday by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's Golden Globes awards.
10

Golden Globes

Django Unchained Leonardo DiCaprio Christoph Waltz Samuel L. Jackson
Best Picture - Drama
"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Life Of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

We think that Tarantino's latest is going to go down well with the Globes, even we're not yet convinced of its Oscar bona-fides, so look for it to push out "The Master," "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "The Impossible" here. The other four are all locked in, bar a huge snub.

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
"Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
"Les Miserables"
"Magic Mike"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Ted"

"Les Miserables" has this won, and "Silver Linings Playbook" is a sure nominee. Beyond that, it's harder to call, but we'd look for "Ted" to fill the broad comedy slot in place of "This Is 40," while we suspect the indie minded "Moonrise Kingdom" will miss out in favor of "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" and "Magic Mike." One to keep an eye on, potentially, is "The Guilt Trip."

Life Of Pi, Ang Lee
Best Director
Ben Affleck - "Argo"
Tom Hooper - "Les Miserables"
Ang Lee - "Life Of Pi"
Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln"
Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty"

We're expecting this to be the same line-up at the Oscars, but things are still fluid. Bigelow and Spielberg are locked in, Affleck and Hooper as good as in. Lee is the most likely to slip out, but who could replace him? David O. Russell, whose film is a heavyweight elsewhere? Two-time nominee Tarantino?  Paul Thomas Anderson (we think "The Master" isn't going to fare well with the Globes, for the most part, so probably not)?

Best Actress - Drama
Keira Knightley - "Anna Karenina"
Quvenzhane Wallis - "Beasts Of The Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
Marion Cotillard - "Rust And Bone"
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"

With a couple of major contenders in the comedy/musical race, look for Critics Choice nominee Naomi Watts to step in, and we've got good money on Keira Knightely, given her previous nod for "Atonement." Being a bigger name means we're backing Marion Cotillard over Emmanuelle Riva, but it could go either way, or Rachel Weisz or Helen Mirren could slip in too.

Denzel Washington Flight
Best Actor - Drama
Ben Affleck - "Argo"
Denzel Washington - "Flight"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"
John Hawkes - "The Sessions"

Again, with Jackman and Cooper, who are essentially vying for that fifth Oscar slot in this category, battling it out elsewhere, there's a space open away from the usual categories. Many have pointed to Anthony Hopkins, Daniel Craig or Jamie Foxx possbily surprising here, but we think Ben Affleck will figure as well, even if he doesn't elsewhere in awards season for acting.

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Judi Dench - "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Barbra Streisand - "The Guilt Trip"
Meryl Streep - "Hope Springs"
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Leslie Mann - "This Is 40"

A pretty sparse category, Lawrence aside (and it's pretty much hers to win), we think vets Meryl Streep, Judi Dench and Barbara Streisand are right in the HFPA's wheelhouse (though Maggie Smith could also pop up for "Quartet" and Leslie Mann could figure in for "This Is 40"). A potential surprise could be Anna Kendrick for "Pitch Perfect.'

Mark Wahlberg Ted
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Jack Black - "Bernie"
Bill Murray - "Hyde Park On Hudson"
Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Mark Wahlberg - "Ted"

In reality a two-horse race between Jackman and Cooper (and Jackman'll take it), Bill Murray and Jack Black are the only other serious contenders who'll figure in here. And while Channing Tatum, Tommy Lee Jones in "Hope Springs" and Omar Sy could figure into the running, the smart money is on a nod for Mark Wahlberg in "Ted."

Best Supporting Actress
Maggie Smith - "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"
Judi Dench - "Skyfall"

As the categories get conflated in supporting, things get more competitive, and for the most part this should mirror the way Oscar falls. That said, our gut says that the HFPA wont' respond to 'The Master," meaning that Judi Dench may well make the final five in place of surefire Academy honoree Amy Adams. Or, if they really love 'Les Mis,' Samantha Barks could join co-star Anne Hathaway.

Jacki Weaver Robert De Niro Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - "Django Unchained"
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
Matthew McConaughey - "Magic Mike"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Robert De Niro - "Silver Linings Playbook"

A highly competitive category, but it's always smart to go with the big star names when it comes down to it. As such, big draws Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey will probably beat out Alan Arkin and Eddie Redmayne for the fourth and fifth slot (the others are probably locked in, though we wouldn't be totally surprised if PSH fell out). Also to be watched is Javier Bardem for "Skyfall" and Russell Crowe for "Les Miserables."

Best Screenplay
Chris Terrio - "Argo"
Quentin Tarantino - "Django Unchained"
Tony Kushner - "Lincoln"
David O Russell - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Mark Boal - "Zero Dark Thirty"

The Globes tend to go with the bigger names here, so expect it to mirror the drama nominees, minus "Life Of Pi." One potential spoiler, perhaps in place of Tarantino, is Wes Anderson, but his films have never been great favorites of the HFPA.

Lincoln
Best Original Score
Dario Marianeli - "Anna Karenina"
Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin - "Beasts Of The Southern Wild"
Mychael Danna - "LIfe Of Pi"
John Williams - "Lincoln"
Jonny Greenwood - "The Master"

We're expecting this to mirror the way the Academy will go, though his rock star status should give Jonny Greenwood a better chance here than there. If he does fall down, look for Alexandre Desplat, Danny Elfman or Howard Shore to fill the gap.

Best Original Song
Birdy & Mumford & Sons - "Learn Me Right" ("Brave")
John Legend - "Who Did That To You" ("Django Unchained")
Hugh Jackman - "Suddenly" ("Les Miserables")
Adele - "Skyfall" ("Skyfall")
Florence & The Machine - "Breath Of Life" ("Snow White & The Huntsman")

Again, big names are the way to go here, so our money is on Mumford & Sons, Adele, Florence + The Machine and John Legend joining sure-fire nominee and probable winner Hugh Jackman.

Wreck-It Ralph
Best Animated Feature Film
"Brave"
"Frankenweenie"
"ParaNorman"
"Rise Of The Guardians"
"Wreck-It Ralph"

Like the Critics' Choice today, expect this to be an all-studio affair. "Madagascar 3" has a fair chance of pushing out 'Guardians' or "ParaNorman," though.

Best Foreign Film
"Amour"
"Biancaneives"
"The Intouchables"
"A Royal Affair"
"Rust & Bone"

Again, think the bigger, more populist names on offer. We're rolling a dice for the fifth slot here, but we think Spanish film "Biancaneives" is one to watch in the category in general, so we've gone for it here.

This article is related to: Awards, The Amazing Race, The Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild


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