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Predicting The Winners Of The 2012 Emmy Awards

by Oliver Lyttelton
September 20, 2012 12:04 PM
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Jessica Lange American Horror Story
Best Supporting Actress - TV Movie/Miniseries
Frances Conroy - "American Horror Story"

Jessica Lange - "American Horror Story"

Sarah Paulson - "Game Change"

Mare Winningham - "Hatfields & McCoys"

Judy Davis - "Page Eight"
Should Win: A somewhat thin category, we'd probably lean towards Sarah Paulson for this one, mainly because we gave up on "American Horror Story" early on.
Will Win: Jessica Lange. It's barely worth the other nominees' time showing up. 

Best Supporting Actor - TV Movie/Miniseries
Denis O'Hare - "American Horror Story"

Ed Harris - "Game Change"

Tom Berenger - "Hatfields & McCoys"

David Strathairn - "Hemingway & Gellhorn"

Martin Freeman - "Sherlock"
Should Win: Another category where we'd be happy for anyone to take (despite our feelings about "American Horror Story," Denis O'Hare always rocks...). But Ed Harris or Martin Freeman for us, probably.
Will Win: Anyone but Ed Harris would be a serious upset.

Julie Bowen Modern Family
Supporting Actress - Comedy

Mayim Bialik - "The Big Bang Theory"

Merritt Wever - "Nurse Jackie"

Julie Bowen - "Modern Family"

Kristen Wiig - "Saturday Night Live"

Sofia Vergara - "Modern Family"

Kathryn Joosten - "Desperate  Housewives"
Should Win: We certainly wouldn't be against a posthumous win for Kathryn Joosten, if only to recognize the brilliance of Mrs. Landingham on "The West Wing."
Will Win: Joosten shouldn't be ruled out, but it's likely that Julie Bowen or Sofia Vergara have this in the bag. As Bowen won last year, maybe it's Vergara's turn? 

Supporting Actor - Comedy
Ed O'Neill - "Modern Family"

Jesse Tyler Ferguson - "Modern Family"

Ty Burrell - "Modern Family"

Eric Stonestreet - "Modern Family"

Bill Hader - "Saturday Night Live"

Max Greenfield - "New Girl"
Should Win: We'd be delighted with some recognition for Bill Hader, but Max Greenfield came up with one of the most memorable comic creations of the year with Schmidt on "New Girl," so we'd be inclined to go with him.
Will Win: An episode submission snafu may have cost Greenfield his chance to spoil the "Modern Family" party, so we imagine it'll be a repeat win for Ty Burrell -- who is admittedly the best thing on the show.

Mad Men - joan
Supporting Actress - Drama

Anna Gunn - "Breaking Bad"

Joanne Froggatt - "Downton Abbey"

Maggie Smith - "Downton Abbey"

Christine Baranski - "The Good Wife"

Archie Panjabi - "The Good Wife"

Christina Hendricks - "Mad Men"
Should Win: Christina Hendricks has been superb across "Mad Men," particularly with this season, and her performance in "The Other Woman" was phenomenal.
Will Win: Hendricks won the Critic's Choice award in this category this year, but she wasn't up against Maggie Smith, who's a near certainty to win. 

Best Supporting Actor - Drama

Giancarlo Esposito - "Breaking Bad"

Aaron Paul - "Breaking Bad"

Brendan Coyle - "Downton Abbey"

Jim Carter - "Downton Abbey"

Peter Dinklage - "Game of Thrones"

Jared Harris - "Mad Men"
Should Win: A very, very tough category, but we miss Gus Fring so much that Giancarlo Esposito just edges it over Peter Dinklage and Jared Harris.
Will Win: We think Dinklage is unlikely to repeat his victory from last year, although it could happen. Our theory is actually that Esposito will win the prize, but don't count out Brendan Coyle from 'Downton.'

Game Change, Moore
Lead Actress - Miniseries

Connie Britton - "American Horror Story"

Ashley Judd - "Missing"

Nicole Kidman - "Hemingway & Gellhorn"

Julianne Moore - "Game Change"

Emma Thompson - "The Song of Lunch"
Should Win: We have to confess we haven't seen a few of these nominees, but we'd go with Nicole Kidman of the ones we have.
Will Win: Julianne Moore, almost certainly. Kidman could upset, but there's a very slim chance of that. 

Lead Actor - Miniseries
Kevin Costner - "Hatfields & McCoys"

Benedict Cumberbatch - "Sherlock: A Scandal In Belgravia"

Idris Elba - "Luther"

Woody Harrelson - "Game Change"

Clive Owen - "Hemingway & Gellhorn"

Bill Paxton - "Hatfields & McCoys"
Should Win: A tough one, this, but we'd probably lean towards Benedict Cumberbatch or Idris Elba, though they did better work in previous seasons of their shows.
Will Win: Woody Harrelson will most likely continue the "Game Change" sweep. That said, Clive Owen shouldn't be ruled out, and nor should Kevin Costner.

Veep Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Lead Actress - Comedy

Zooey Deschanel - "New Girl"

Lena Dunham - "Girls"

Edie Falco - "Nurse Jackie"

Tina Fey - "30 Rock"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus - "Veep"

Melissa McCarthy - "Mike & Molly"

Amy Poehler - "Parks and Recreation"
Should Win: A fiercely competitive category (elevated to seven nominees), we think both Deschanel and Dunham are terrific on their shows, but we'd have to lean towards Amy Poehler: we just watched the Season 4 finale of "Parks and Recreation" again, and she's absolutely terrific in it.
Will Win: Almost anyone (bar perhaps Falco) is in with a shot here, but our gut says it'll be Emmy favorite Julia Louis-Dreyfus -- she's stacked up thirteen nominations and two wins over the years. 

Lead Actor - Comedy

Alec Baldwin - "30 Rock"

Don Cheadle - "House of Lies"

Louis C.K. - "Louie"

Jon Cryer - "Two and a Half Men"
Larry David - "Curb Your Enthusiasm"

Jim Parsons - "The Big Bang Theory"
Should Win: We're oddly uninspired by this category -- even Louis C.K. isn't quite as strong an actor as he is a comedian or director. Still, we'd pick him, or maybe Alec Baldwin, who's always good value.
Will Win: Jim Parsons seems likely to take his third award in a row.

Lead Actress - Drama

Kathy Bates - "Harry's Law"

Glenn Close - "Damages"

Claire Danes - "Homeland"

Michelle Dockery - "Downton Abbey"

Julianna Marguiles - "The Good Wife"

Elisabeth Moss - "Mad Men"
Should Win: We could deal with anyone bar perhaps Kathy Bates taking this prize, but our favorite would be Claire Danes, who was spectacular in "Homeland."
Will Win: Probably Danes, as it happens, though don't rule out a 'Downton'-related upset for Michelle Dockery


Lead Actor - Drama

Hugh Bonneville - "Downton Abbey"

Steve Buscemi - "Boardwalk Empire"

Bryan Cranston - "Breaking Bad"

Michael C. Hall - "Dexter"

Jon Hamm - "Mad Men"

Damian Lewis - "Homeland"
Should Win: In a tough category, we'd just lean with Jon Hamm, who gets better and better on "Mad Men," over Bryan Cranston and Damian Lewis (it's not his fault, but we can't help but be reminded of "Dreamcatcher" every time we see his face).
Will Win: Probably Bryan Cranston, having won three times consecutively, but Damian Lewis is a strong possibility too.

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  • DG | September 23, 2012 9:01 PMReply

    Louie Louie Louie louaaaaaaass

  • rebecca | September 21, 2012 6:14 AMReply

    "Mad Men" did not have its finest season by a long stretch. Breaking Bad was far better, but Downton will probably win.

  • AS | September 20, 2012 5:50 PMReply

    It's a fucking sham that Boardwalk Empire received not one Best Supporting Actor nomination but Breaking Bad received 2. Don't get me wrong, BB is great, but Paul and Esposito didn't come anywhere near Michael Pitt, Michael Shannon (whose been shafted 2 years in a row), Shea Whigham or Michael Stuhlbarg. And where is Kelly Macdonald's nomination? Joke. Curb Your Enthusiasm deserves to win everything it's nominated for but it won't, of course, because it has intelligence and subtlety in its favor (something the Emmy's aren't particularly fond of when it comes to Comedy). But if Homeland wins anything I'll be disgusted. The show is blander than Mitt Romney and it's racist beyond belief. It's blunt propaganda, reenforcing the notion that "the Arabs are the enemy, and the CIA are the good guys who are only trying to protect us." But this should come as no surprise, seeing as how it's produced by one of Rupert Murdoch's networks....

  • Benjamin | September 20, 2012 2:09 PMReply

    As good as Hamm is, anyone beating Cranston after "Crawl Space" would be sacrilege. Bryan Cranston has set a new standard. That is what great acting looks like.

    I thought the direction of "Homeland" was rather bland. It's very well-written, but it has a "Showtime look and feel" in much the same way that CBS shows all have the same look and feel. I see no creative expression in the direction. You can see spot little directorial trademarks in each Bad episode. You know each director and develop a fondness for their style and individual subtlety. Gilligan might have the strongest voice. Hail to the kingpin, baby.

  • | September 20, 2012 12:42 PMReply

    Where is your guest actors category?
    Jason Ritter should win for that one.
    Give Michael C Hall a freaking Emmy already!
    I am so sick of tuning in every years for 6 years or whatever it is only to see him lose.
    If I hear the names John Hamm or Brian Cranston again I will barf! Enough of them already. Its the same people year after year, Blah Blah Blah!

  • nechoplex | September 20, 2012 5:22 PM

    On any other year I would agree with you, but season 6 of Dexter was terrible. Michael C. Hall was okay in it but far from his best work. His best chances were for season 4 or 5. I'm surprised he was even nominated this year.

    P.S. Don't complain about Jon Hamm as his name has never been called. Hamm winning would be so much better than seeing Cranston win yet again.

  • Nope | September 20, 2012 1:08 PM

    The guest actor awards were given at the creative arts awards already.

  • Archer Slyce | September 20, 2012 12:22 PMReply

    Great coverage, I really like the "objective" approach here. And as far as it pains me to admit it, yep the two TV shows I disliked the most this season (Girls and American horror story) will grab a bunch of Emmy (it's what they're made for) and for all the wrong reasons ("please look at us we are subversive !"). Very very curious about what Louie will score (if anything), that should be interesting at least.

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