Premature Predictions: The 2014 Best Director Nominees

Features

by Oliver Lyttelton
March 1, 2013 12:23 PM
12 Comments

In recent years, trying to predict the Oscar nominees in the Best Director category has been especially tricky. In the past, you could just translate over your Best Picture nominees, maybe swap one out for a better-known or showier filmmaker, and you were relatively likely to be correct. But ever since the Academy made the switch to having more than five nominees in the top category it's become more unpredictable, especially if you're trying to make your predictions a year in advance.

We've never done a long-range pick of the potential directing nominees before, but rest assured that if we'd done such a thing twelve months ago, we would not have suggested that Michael Haneke would make it in. But having already picked out Best Picture, Actor, Actress and the Supporting categories, we wanted to close out our week of 2014 Oscar long-distance predictions with a challenge, so you'll find our guesses below. You can find out if we're right early in 2014, and in the meantime make your own predictions in the comments section. Our Oscar coverage is going into hibernation for a little while (they might resurface briefly at Cannes, but that'll be it otherwise), but look for it to pick up towards the end of the summer, by which time many of our early questions will have been answered.

Strong Contenders

Alfonso Cuaron - "Gravity"
While adored by geeks and cinephiles, Alfonso Cuaron isn't necessarily a name that rings many bells with the Academy; his last three films were a raucous coming-of-age sex comedy ("Y Tu Mama Tambien"), a "Harry Potter" film, and an apocalyptic sci-fi ("Children Of Men"), none of which is exactly typical Academy material. But the latter made a fair Academy impact despite being undervalued by many, earning three nominations including a screenplay nod shared by Cuaron himself. And if he ever breaks through further, a showy space picture starring Academy darlings Sandra Bullock and George Clooney would seem to be a good bet. If rumors are to be believed, it raises Cuaron's long, impressive takes from "Children Of Men" to a whole new level, with the opening shot said to last as long as twenty minutes, so it'll be a showcase for him as much as for Bullock, and it's the kind of 3D extravaganza that just won Ang Lee the Oscar. Now, the film could end up on a knife-edge; maybe seen by some as too commercial, and by others as too arty. But if Cuaron can get the balance right and the film works, this could well be a good bet.

Bennett Miller - "Foxcatcher"
Having picked up a nomination for his first feature "Capote," Bennett Miller missed out when "Moneyball" was nominated for Best Picture last year. On the one hand, it was a little puzzling (the old complaint of "What, did the film direct itself?"), but on the other hand, Miller has an unfussy, story-first style, so it's understandable why he was excluded, even if the meat-and-veg directorial work was arguably more impressive than some of the others who were nominated last year. We're expecting "Foxcatcher" to be a big player in the awards season, but will Miller be excluded again? Or will voters want to make up for him missing out last time? It's a tough call to make: the film, on the page, looks unlikely to be any more attention-grabbing for its filmmaker than his previous two films. But assuming he does the same impeccable job that he did on "Capote" and "Moneyball," he's always going to be viable, and our gut says that Miller will make the cut this time, although he's probably the shakiest of this Top 5.

David O. Russell - "Untitled David O. Russell Abscam Project"
Once, when he was the headbutted-by-George-Clooney, shrieking-at-Lily-Tomlin enfant terrible of the indie scene, a nomination for David O. Russell was unthinkable. But the filmmaker has mellowed in recent years, and now has two nominations in three years thanks to "The Fighter" and "Silver Linings Playbook," and was seen by many as a viable winner for the latter, though Ang Lee beat him to the punch. But even before that happened, we thought that Russell might be a great threat in 2014. As we said when discussing the Best Picture possibilities, the Abscam project (which has the almighty cast of Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, Jeremy Renner, Amy Adams, Jennifer Lawrence and Louis CK) is likely to have all the advantages of Russell's recent work, while also being a period piece, and with arguably more serious subject matter at play. The filmmaker is a perfect match for the script, so unless it's a surprising misfire in execution (or if it slips into 2014, which is possible), we expect him to be among the nominees, and possibly even the front-runner.

Martin Scorsese - "Wolf Of Wall Street"
Any time that Martin Scorsese has a film out, you know he's going to be a threat in this category; he has seven nominations in total, and while he finally won for "The Departed," he still challenged quite heavily for "Hugo" in 2012, even if he ultimately lost to Michel Hazavanicius. So with a new film in 2013 -- and one that involves examining the root of the global economic crisis in the excesses of a high-living stockbroker -- he's very much in the running, with material that might be his most awards-friendly since "The Aviator." In the last decade, Scorsese has only failed to nab a nomination for "Shutter Island," his most genre-led work in recent memory, so he's a safe bet for a nod. That said, in a tough year which could be seen as something of a changing of the guard, with young bucks like Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen competing, Scorsese can't simply phone the film in.

Alexander Payne - “Nebraska “
Like Russell, Payne was once outside of the establishment, with his controversy-baiting debut "Citizen Ruth." But now, the filmmaker has firmly been embraced by the Academy, with six nominations in total including directing nods for his last two pictures, "Sideways" and "The Descendants." His latest, "Nebraska," a father-son tale starring the unlikely combination of Will Forte and Bruce Dern, seems to be a lower-key, more personal kind of picture for the filmmaker, shot on a relatively low budget, and to be released in black and white. But despite the lack of star power, voters clearly adore Payne's sensibilities, and unless the film proves truly surprising, he shouldn't be dismissed in this category. If anything, going black and white is likely to give him more credit. The film might not work, of course, and if some of the showier possibilities below deliver, Payne could well fall out (even a film as fine as "About Schmidt" went mostly unrewarded, bar a nod for Jack Nicholson). But we wouldn't want to bet against him.

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More: Oscars, The Amazing Race, Premature Predictions, Alfonso Cuaron, Bennett Miller, Alexander Payne, David O. Russell, Martin Scorsese, Features, Awards, Academy Awards

12 Comments

| Reply
Michael M. | March 31, 2013 11:26 PMReply

Let me make this clear, insofar as the ACADEMY:

Best Actor: Chiwetal Ejiofor - Twelve years a slave (Runner Up: Leonardo Dicaprio)
Best Picture: Untitled ABSCAM Project (Runner up: The Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street).
Best Director: David O. Russell (Runner up: George Clooney, Martin Scorsese).

Personally Ejiofor should win, I mean come on? A gut-wrenching portrayal as the kidnapped Solomon Northup. With that given I think it's almost unavoidable, although DiCaprio could pull off an upset considering he's in Scorsese's highly anticipated project. While BD and BP are up for grabs, I wouldn't be surprised to see Russell winning in both categories. He's a solid director with Weinstein backing him, and has been the academy darling as of late. I could also see George Clooney walking away for his highly touted historical piece "The Monuments Men" as well, although I still presume it may be too early to award him another statuette. With that being said, alas! something in me yells: WILL YOU GIVE IT TO MALICK ALREADY!

Anything else?
Jamie | March 8, 2013 6:15 PMReply

Just as a follow up you don't want to hear my rant on Australia ... walked in expecting Lawrence of Arabia. Walked out thinking Donovan's Reef meets the Man from Snowy River while riding past the Rabbit Proof Fence. Never has any director wasted so much talent, epic possibility and cultural clash in unknown history. It should have been great. It is a tribute to the real country and the phenomenal cast clawing its way up through a continuity error laden script that it still manages to be entertaining.
Jamie | March 8, 2013 6:08 PMReply

I think you can safely remove Baz Luhrman. By this time, the industry must be totally bored with sloppy incompetence not making up for flashes of brilliance.
Corvo | March 2, 2013 9:46 AMReply

O. Russell AGAIN??? Please NO.
Myk | March 1, 2013 11:11 PMReply

Scorsese DOES NOT "phone in" his films. Asshole. You're ban from film literature for life just for typing that.
Jack | March 1, 2013 4:09 PMReply

George Clooney, Steve McQueen, Alonso Cuaron, Bennet Miller, Martin Scorsese
tomincmh | March 1, 2013 3:20 PMReply

I'm really hoping McQueen can get a nomination His direction in 'Hunger' and 'Shame' were amazing.
Ilona | March 1, 2013 3:06 PMReply

James Gray deserves a freaking nomination. It will be a shame if the academy ignores him once again.
Jeff | March 1, 2013 1:45 PMReply

That graph on Llewyn Davis features some of the most bizarre punctuation and sentence structure I've ever seen. This is an actual sentence from above:

"But the question is whether they can manage a directorial nomination, and we're not 100% convinced; of all their earlier films."
BX | March 1, 2013 12:54 PMReply

This lineup already looks 1000 times better than 2012's nominees.
yod | March 3, 2013 9:37 PM

Or maybe you're just stupid. You haven't even seen any of these!
oogle monster | March 1, 2013 12:50 PMReply

Lurhmann will make it in. You just wait!