Far more so than critics' groups and things like the Golden Globes, the guild awards are far more accurate at showing how Oscar nominations will play out. That's because when it comes to the Academy's nomination process, each category is voted on specifially by their own branch -- the actors pick the actors, the writer pick the writers, the cinematographers pick the cinematographers, and so on. Once the nominations have been decided, most categories are then opened up to voting by the Academy at large.
This means that, while the winners will often differ, the nominations tend to be a fair (although not perfect) mirror of the respective guilds, and one can get a good idea of how the Oscar nods will turn out next Tuesday by taking a look at the PGA, the WGA, the SAG, the DGA, the ASC, and various other craft bodies who've already picked their nominees. And finally, the last major guild have made their picks.
The ACE (American Cinema Editors) announced this morning their nominees for the 62nd Annual ACE Eddie Awards, which will honor the best achivements in the field of cutting and splicing over the last year. And it again gives a fairly good sense of where the Oscars will end up going. Unlike the Academy, the ACE split their nominees into two major categories, Comedy/Musical and Drama, and it's the latter that seems to provide the best fit for the final Oscar five, with "Hugo," "The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo" "Moneyball," "The Descendants" and "War Horse," the latter breaking its duck with the guilds so far, all winning nominations.
Meanwhile, the comedy prize saw "The Artist," surprise awards fave "Bridesmaids," "Midnight In Paris," "My Week With Marilyn" and "Young Adult" all nominated. In reality, it's very unlikely that any bar "The Artist" will manage an Oscar nomination, that film likely replacing "The Descendants" among the five dramas, although an upset could be possible -- some have criticized the cutting on Hazanavicius' film as too contemporary for the silent conceit it's going for.
Otherwise, "The Adventures of Tintin," "Rango" and "Puss In Boots" all won animation nods, and "Cave of Forgotten Dreams," "George Harrison: Living in the Material World" and "Freedom Riders" made up the documentary category. Patton Oswalt, star of the nominated "Young Adult," will present the awards on February 18th. Full list of nominees below. [Indiewire]
Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic)
"The Descendants" - Kevin Tent, A.C.E.
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" - Angus Wall, A.C.E. & Kirk Baxter, A.C.E.
"Hugo" - Thelma Schoonmaker, A.C.E.
"Moneyball" - Christopher Tellefsen, A.C.E.
"War Horse" - Michael Kahn, A.C.E.
Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy Or Musical)
"The Artist" - Anne-Sophie Bion & Michel Hazanavicius
"Bridesmaids" - William Kerr & Michael L. Sale
"Midnight in Paris" - Alisa Lepselter
"My Week with Marilyn" - Adam Recht
"Young Adult" - Dana E. Glauberman, A.C.E.
Best Edited Animated Feature Film
"The Adventures of Tintin" - Michael Kahn, A.C.E.
"Puss in Boots" - Eric Dapkewicz
"Rango" - Craig Wood, A.C.E.
Best Edited Documentary
"Cave of Forgotten Dreams
" - Joe Bini & Maya Hawke
"Freedom Riders" - Lewis Erskine & Aljernon Tunsil
"George Harrison: Living in the Material World" - David Tedeschi