First of all, on the foreign language side, the first two Swedish movies would have been eligible for last year and Sweden submitted another movie altogether. While The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet's Nest could be eligible for this year, it seems an unlikely Oscar candidate. The Academy goes for high-minded, emotionally uplifting narratives, mostly, and these films fall squarely in genre territory.
As for Rapace, the issue is whether small Chicago distrib Edward Arentz of Music Box, who shows flair in picking the right movies to release, but neither spends nor profits heavily, would back a robust best actress campaign. These things cost money. Rapace nailed the role of Lisbeth Salander, no question. But is it the kind of performance that Oscar voters would love? They tend to go for showy emotional roles like Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose. Rapace is (appropriately) cold and contained.
Also, Rapace would have to land a slot against formidable competition: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Anne Hathaway (Love and Other Drugs), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Helen Mirren (The Tempest), and Hilary Swank (Conviction). And who knows what other performances will emerge on the fall fest circuit?