By Anne Thompson | Thompson on Hollywood February 1, 2013 at 12:00PM
On this week's Oscar Talk podcast, Kris Tapley and I discuss the recent PGA and SAG wins for Ben Affleck's "Argo," which is now mounting a formidable challenge to Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln." And we cover last weekend's Affleck and Daniel Day-Lewis tributes in Santa Barbara.
While I can see several key Oscar races going "Argo"'s way, Affleck's lack of a director nom remains a statistical barrier to a Best Picture win. Kris advocates for "Argo" all the way, while I want to see what happens at the Directors Guild Awards this weekend. He says Affleck or Ang Lee will win that group; I think it's Spielberg. This means I have backed off my bet on Lee.
Next week we'll read the tea leaves after the DGA awards, and check out the race for animated and live action shorts--picking right can determine whether or not you win your Oscar pool.
The podcast is also on iTunes.