Oscar Predictions Chart 2012 UPDATED

Awards by Anne Thompson | January 31, 2012 | 88 Comments

Dujardin & Bejo in "The Artist"
Hugo Paramount

After the nominations, it looked like a neck-and-neck race for the Oscar, as Martin Scorsese's 3-D "Hugo" and silent black-and-white film "The Artist" led the field of contenders. But "Hugo" collected eleven nominations and more technical categories, while "The Artist" collected ten, including acting nominations for Best Actor Jean Dujardin (who just won SAG) and Supporting Actress Berenice Bejo. While both films are nostalgic love letters to the movies, "The Artist," whose director Michael Hazanavicius collected the DGA Award, is the clear Best Picture front runner heading towards Oscar night, February 26.

Each Oscar branch voted for nominations in individual categories (foreign is chosen via various voting committees); this was the first year that the Oscar nominations for best picture were determined via a new vote-counting method that could yield from five to ten nominees. 5,783 voters used a ballot with five best picture slots; their top choices wound up with nine nominations.

Surprises included two nominations for raunchfest "Bridesmaids," for Supporting Actress (Melissa McCarthy) and Original Screenplay; the inclusion of SAG nominee Damien Bichir (LA immigration drama "A Better Life") and Gary Oldman (BAFTA fave "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy") as Best Actor over Leonardo DiCaprio (badly reviewed "J. Edgar") and Michael Fassbender (NC-17-rated "Shame"); Supporting Actor Max Von Sydow (late-breaking "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close") over Albert Brooks (R-rated "Drive"); and Best Actress Rooney Mara (Guild-favored "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo") over Tilda Swinton (art film "We Need to Talk About Kevin"). Iranian Asghar Farhadi earned not only an expected foreign nomination for critics' rave "A Separation," but an original screenplay nod as well. Writer-director J.C. Chandor was another surprise nominee in that category, for Sundance hit "Margin Call." Of all the surprises, only Farhadi has a real shot at winning--in the foreign language category.

Steven Spielberg's "War Horse" (six nominations), Bennett Miller's "Moneyball" (six), "The Help" (four) and Stephen Daldry's "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" (two) made it into the top nine, although not Best Director. David Fincher did not score in the director category either; "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" (five) and "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" (three) did not land Best Picture slots.

While writer-director Alexander Payne's "The Descendants" earned five nominations, for Best Picture, Director, Best Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Editing, young actress Shailene Woodley did not earn a nod. And front-runner George Clooney unexpectedly lost the SAG award to Dujardin. Veteran Oscar-winner Woody Allen's "Midnight in Paris" earned four nominations--for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Art Direction--but no acting nods. On the other hand, "The Help," which earned three acting nominations--and won Best Ensemble at SAG--could take home two Oscars: for Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer.

Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life," which had not been favored by the Guilds, landed a director nomination as well as nominations for Best Picture and Cinematography. The animation branch did not give Spielberg's performance capture "The Adventures of Tintin" a nomination, and Pixar's "Cars 2" was also snubbed--the Academy tends to frown on sequels.

Historically, the movie with the most nominations ("Hugo") is favored to win Best Picture, but that does not always happen. This year the beloved black-and-white French silent romance "The Artist" is the favorite. And SAG winner Dujardin could be the first of three past French nominees to win Best Actor. For the last seven years, the SAG winner has also won the Oscar. My UPDATED picks for the win in each category are marked in bold.

The nine Best Picture nominees are:

    "The Artist" Thomas Langmann, Producer
    "The Descendants" Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
    "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" Scott Rudin, Producer
    "The Help" Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
    "Hugo" Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
    "Midnight in Paris" Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
    "Moneyball" Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
    "The Tree of Life" Nominees to be determined
    "War Horse" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers"The Artist"

Actor in a Leading Role

    Demián Bichir in "A Better Life"
    George Clooney in "The Descendants"
    Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"
    Gary Oldman in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
    Brad Pitt in "Moneyball"

Actor in a Supporting Role

    Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn"
    Jonah Hill in "Moneyball"
    Nick Nolte in "Warrior"
    Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"
    Max von Sydow in "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

Actress in a Leading Role

    Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs"
    Viola Davis in "The Help"
    Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
    Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"
    Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn"

Actress in a Supporting Role

    Bérénice Bejo in "The Artist"
    Jessica Chastain in "The Help"
    Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids"
    Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs"
    Octavia Spencer in "The Help"

Animated Feature Film

    "A Cat in Paris" Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
    "Chico & Rita" Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
    "Kung Fu Panda 2" Jennifer Yuh Nelson
    "Puss in Boots" Chris Miller
    "Rango" Gore Verbinski

Art Direction

    "The Artist" Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould
    "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
    "Hugo" Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
    "Midnight in Paris" Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
    "War Horse" Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Cinematography

    "The Artist" Guillaume Schiffman
    "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Jeff Cronenweth
    "Hugo" Robert Richardson
    "The Tree of Life" Emmanuel Lubezki
    "War Horse" Janusz Kaminski

Costume Design

    "Anonymous" Lisy Christl
    "The Artist" Mark Bridges
    "Hugo" Sandy Powell
    "Jane Eyre" Michael O'Connor
    "W.E." Arianne Phillips

Directing

    "The Artist" Michel Hazanavicius
    "The Descendants" Alexander Payne
    "Hugo" Martin Scorsese
    "Midnight in Paris" Woody Allen
    "The Tree of Life" Terrence Malick

Documentary (Feature)

    "Hell and Back Again" Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
    "If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front" Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
    "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory" Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
    "Pina" Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
    "Undefeated" TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas

Documentary (Short Subject)

    "The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement" Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
    "God Is the Bigger Elvis" Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
    "Incident in New Baghdad"James Spione
    "Saving Face" Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
    "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

Film Editing

    "The Artist" Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
    "The Descendants" Kevin Tent
    "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
    "Hugo" Thelma Schoonmaker
    "Moneyball" Christopher Tellefsen

Foreign Language Film

    "Bullhead" Belgium
    "Footnote" Israel
    "In Darkness" Poland
    "Monsieur Lazhar" Canada
    "A Separation" Iran

Makeup

    "Albert Nobbs" Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
    "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
    "The Iron Lady" Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Music (Original Score)

    "The Adventures of Tintin" John Williams
    "The Artist" Ludovic Bource
    "Hugo" Howard Shore
    "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Alberto Iglesias
    "War Horse" John Williams

Music (Original Song)

    "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets" Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
    "Real in Rio" from "Rio" Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett

Short Film (Animated)

    "Dimanche/Sunday" Patrick Doyon
    "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
    "La Luna" Enrico Casarosa
    "A Morning Stroll" Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
    "Wild Life" Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

Short Film (Live Action)

    "Pentecost" Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane
    "Raju" Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
    "The Shore" Terry George and Oorlagh George
    "Time Freak" Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
    "Tuba Atlantic" Hallvar Witzø

Sound Editing

    "Drive" Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
    "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Ren Klyce
    "Hugo" Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
    "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
    "War Horse" Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom

Sound Mixing

    "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
    "Hugo" Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
    "Moneyball" Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick
    "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
    "War Horse" Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson

Visual Effects

    "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
    "Hugo" Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning
    "Real Steel" Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
    "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett
    "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

    "The Descendants" Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
    "Hugo" Screenplay by John Logan
    "The Ides of March" Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
    "Moneyball" Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin
    "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Screenplay by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan

Writing (Original Screenplay)

    "The Artist" Written by Michel Hazanavicius
    "Bridesmaids" Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
    "Margin Call" Written by J.C. Chandor
    "Midnight in Paris" Written by Woody Allen
    "A Separation" Written by Asghar Farhadi


ACADEMY BRANCH BREAKDOWN (2010):

    Actors 1205
    Art Directors 374
    Cinematographers 200
    Directors 366
    Documentary 151
    Executives 437
    Film Editors 221
    Makeup Artists
    and Hairstylists 118
    Members-at-Large 245
    Music 234
    Producers 452
    Public Relations 368
    Short Films and Animation 340
    Sound 405
    Visual Effects 279
    Writers 382

101 Comments

  • Gary | February 6, 2012Reply

    Paradise Lost 3 will win Doc feature. I think Dujardin (did you see him on Leno Friday night--God what a charmer!), Davis, Plummer, will also win. However everybody thinks Spencer is a "lock" for supporting actress--just like everybody thought Lauren Bacall was 15 years ago--BUT a French woman upset her (Juliette Binoche) and I think Bejo is right on her heels and could definitely win in an "Artist" sweep.

  • light | February 6, 2012Reply

    Martin Scorsese should be winner. Hugo is very beautiful and in darkness and bullhead are great movies. I like bullhead is a fabulous .

  • Arthur Wachholz | February 4, 2012Reply

    One of the worst pictures I have ever seen. How it was nominated I'll never know.

  • hassan | February 2, 2012Reply

    just ____A SEPARATION____

  • Ryan Sartor | February 1, 2012Reply

    Did you mean to pick dragon tattoo or hugo for sound editing?

  • Eithan | February 1, 2012Reply

    in the actress category: I find it hard to believe that "The Help" will score both acting categories - and nothing else. I do believe that the supporting actress award will go to spencer, but in the leading role my money is on Michelle Williams - who is a well respected and loved acrtress (and so she should be. she's very good). Also - she's an actress playing an actress. Cate Blanchette won an oscar for a similar thing a few years ago. And although the film itself ("My week with Marilyn") isn't the moving film it could have been, I think that it is her time to win (And BTW, if I had a vote, I would vote for Kenneth Branagh. But Christopher Plummer is so strong in the race, I don't see anyone beating him). As for the foreign language category: I'm from Israel, and I should say "Footnote". But in recent years the Academy has been notoriosly known for Not awarding the world's favorite (This year - Iran). Instead, the Academy is a sucker for mushy emotional films. This is why my money is on Canada.

  • Xavier | January 30, 2012Reply

    I have a hard time predicting a movie that has no words for a screenplay win, I might have to see where WGA goes for that one before I make that prediction. I'm still not sure about the sound awards, its a weird selection this year. After the DGA and SAGs I definitely think that Direction and Best Actor have swung to Hazanavicius and Dujardin. I do think the Foreign Film will actually go to the favorite this year as its also an emotional and personal film.

  • normita astronomo | January 28, 2012Reply

    all beautiful films especially "HUGO" tree of life . i thank all who contributed in making such movies that make sense.

  • jason | January 28, 2012Reply

    The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences determined Friday that it will officially credit four producers, instead of three, for “The Tree of Life.” so where is Johnny Depp for Hugo ‘s producer .his company ‘s logo is after GK .what’s the hell. why they didn’t say any thing? he should be nominated .

  • 4tell.me | January 26, 2012Reply

    We've set up a prediction game that includes the Oscars. You can play and make your own predictions at www.4tell.me

  • Greg909 | January 25, 2012Reply

    Best animated short film will go to: "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg. Check it out here: vimeo.com/35404908

  • gabriel | January 25, 2012Reply

    Midnight in Paris will win Best Original Screenplay instead of The Artist.

  • light | January 25, 2012Reply

    it's silly list .where are Tilda Swinton, Albert Brooks.best original 50/50 ,take shelter . Project Nim (documentary ) ? ides of march is nominated for screenplay? ??????

  • joe | January 25, 2012Reply

    Tilda Swinton, Albert Brooks. best Screenplay - Steve Zaillian“The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo,best original screenplay 50/50,take shelter , Project Nim (documentary ) are out . it’s silly ides of march is nominated for screenplay? (Because of Clooney?) pitt is producer of moneyball ,so where is Johnny Depp for hugo’s producer .his name and company are as producer in list and movie’s website.

  • Name susan | January 24, 2012Reply

    Your Comment Please respect the memory of three murdered boy scouts. Do not vote for Paradise Lost 3. It is a slanted and incomplete portrait of the three who killed, confessed, were found guilty and pled guilty to these barbaric murders.

  • NameSusan | January 24, 2012

    Your Comment SEE: calahan8k.com and wm3truth.com for information the "documentary" makers did not want you to learn.

  • Morgan | January 24, 2012Reply

    The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will get a BP nom.

  • Martin | January 24, 2012Reply

    I posted my own predictions hours before the announce...some similarities, and also some differences with IW. Check and comment: http://www.mondoglam.com/2012/01/predicciones-al-oscar-2012-ultima.html

  • vint | January 24, 2012Reply

    I'm confused: Tate Taylor isn't a lock for an Oscar nomination for Director, because he wasn't recognized by the DGA (wasn't nominated for their award), yet Terrence Malick -- who also wasn't nominated by the DGA -- makes your list of likely nominations? Gotta say, between the two films -- "The Help" and "Tree of Life" -- I enjoyed "The Help" far more, and thought that Malick not only resorted to a lot of his standard "tics" (the whispered voice-over, etc.), he was as self-indulgent as a film school student with his overly long shots of the universe (symbolism should NEVER be that heavy-handed in a film). Here's hoping that Malick DOESN'T get the nod for that flick (it was more of a cinematography stunt, than a directorial -- i.e., editing, etc. -- effort), and that Talyor, for "The Help", gets it instead (along with Allen for "Midnight in Paris", Hazanavicius for "The Artist", Payne for "The Descendants" and Scorsese for "Hugo", or Speilberg for "War Horse").

  • navid | January 24, 2012Reply

    I saw befor a sepration and i think it has a very nice story and I really want ASGHAR FARHADI to get a best FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Jenn | January 23, 2012Reply

    I really want Bennett Miller to get a Best Director nomination. I'm starting to doubt it will happen at this point, but I'm holding out for a miracle.

  • Lily | January 18, 2012Reply

    oh how I hope Melissa McCarthy makes it in for 'Bridesmaids' = BAFTA+SAG+BFCA // don't stop her now!

  • bright | January 15, 2012Reply

    I agree with declaration of war but in darkness is great movie and where do we go now is fabulous .they should be front runner .one of them should be winner a oscar

  • joe | January 15, 2012Reply

    where do we go now and "Declaration of War"(France) are the great movie. one of them should be win.

  • Aaron | January 13, 2012Reply

    where is "Take Shelter" on this list tisk tisk

  • Oscar | January 11, 2012Reply

    If Rooney Mara isn't nominated and at least a strong contender it will be a travesty. A truly fantastic performance. I also think that Michael Hazanavicius and Alexander Payne are locked in for a nom but the other three spots I'm not so sure. Fincher certainly has a chance, but I think Malick will definately get a spot (the Academy usually enjoy his work and The Tree of Life was a triumph of a return) and I wouldn't count out Tomas Alfredsson or Nicholas Winding Refn either. Drive I would guess is going to be nominated for cinematography as well.

  • Annie | January 10, 2012Reply

    I hope LEONARDO DICAPRIO wins this oscar. He is phenomenal in J. Edgar and long overdue too.

  • Gemini71 | January 10, 2012Reply

    Am I the only one who thinks that Melanie Lynskey deserves a nomination for 'Hello, I Must Be Going'? Surely, there must be others who would like to see her rewarded with the chance to reach A-list leading lady status. I have been waiting seventeen years for it to happen.

  • Ivan | January 9, 2012Reply

    Viola Davis could beat Meryl Streep OR MICHELLE WILLIAMS. I think Anne always deliberately forget to mention Williams, who's in the race very much.

  • absidd | January 9, 2012Reply

    I want The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo to win best Director and Best Picture. A nom for Mara would be nice.

  • Troy | January 8, 2012Reply

    The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo should have more nominations. It's by far the best movie of the year and perhaps the best movie from a novel of the last decade.

  • Xavier | January 14, 2012

    On the contrary Yulb only a close minded one would be childish enough to use the phrase " please hop off Fincher's dick" to a fan of a genius director. Your idiocy amazes me.

  • yulb | January 9, 2012

    Hahahahaha! Oh simple minded one, please hop off Fincher's dick.

  • Gemini71 | January 8, 2012Reply

    My own list for Best Actress nominations would include Melanie Lynskey for her lead role in 'Hello, I Must Be Going'. She has been acting in close to forty films, but so far, a big breakthrough has eluded her. This is her first proper lead role since she took on the challenge of portraying Pauline Parker in 'Heavenly Creatures', and getting a mention in this category will only serve to make industry figures in the movie business acknowledge her as a leading lady of the future.

  • Trent Ledford | January 3, 2012Reply

    My Oscar prediction are different from this. Some of the movie should not get nominated. These are ten other movies that should get talked about for Best Film and Director. I think at least three of these movies should get a nom for best film and director. These movies showed art. Super 8 Melancholia The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Midnight in Paris Contagion Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Drive Source Code The Muppets My Week With Marilyn Hanna Bridesmaids I will be discussion the oscar as the day comes closer on blog and on Facebook and twitter. www.facebook.com/trentjledford http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003340684704 @trent_ledford

  • Sam B. | January 3, 2012Reply

    Where's Rooney Mara in all of this? Although she may not win Best Actress, she gave a remarkable performance in Dragon Tatoo, and at least deserves a nomination. I personally believe she deserves it.

  • absidd | January 9, 2012

    I totally agree with you. Hope Fincher wins the Best Director Oscar.

  • Greg | December 31, 2011Reply

    the easiest pick is Brad Pitt for MONEYBALL (long career, does good things for those in need, married to AJ, also did TREE OF LIFE, is brave enough to not be Photoshopped at times, and is gorgeous and charming). If Close gets nominated, she could very well get one of those "career" awards (she should have won for Dangerous Liaisons), plus she plays a man and has shepherded this project for what 15 years. With the reviews for THE IRON LADY, Streep will be nominated but won't win (I mean, we all know she'll be back up for something next year or the year after). If there's no Close, I'm guessing Viola David for THE HELP. The only caveat would be whether a vengeful voting block wants to kick Fox Searchlight for dumping MARGARET. Chris Plummer will win Best Supporting as a career award. (I'm surprised that Viggo is not on your list.) I don't really see how anyone can beat Jessica Chastain, with what, FIVE, very well reviewed performances in 2011, which covered an enormous range. Cinematography goes to THE TREE OF LIFE, because the voters have to give it SOMEthing. Astonishingly, BRIDESMAIDS will win Best Original Screenplay. For Adapted Screenplay, Sorkin won last year so he's out. It's going to go to Payne as a consolation prize as it's the only Oscar The Descendants will win. Director -- oh so tricky category. I think this may be a Fosse/Coppola year where Picture doesn't match with Director. So we're really looking at Scorsese/Spielberg/and yes, amazingly enough, David Cronenberg (Payne gets the Screenplay osscar so he's out. Fincher, no chance even for a nom and I love Fincher. I live in NYC and I'm actually feeling zero buzz in the air about THE ARTIST, but then I may just be stupidly misinformed. So we can eliminate Spielberg because of the reviews. Scorsese vs. Cronenberg, me thinks - I would be stunned if it went to Cronenberg, but then he does have a body of work and this will be one of the few films Oscar voters could actually vote for, for him (needless to say, he was not nominated for THE BROOD - I guess the Academy felt a little queasy watching Samantha Eggar lick the placenta off her mutant baby). I have to hold off on that one; and there is the issue of whether HUGO peaked a tad by not opening on Xmas Day or that Friday. Picture -- I'm thinking HUGO (which would bring about the Fosse/Coppola Syndrome if Cronenberg or someone else takes it from Scorsese). But no matter what, it's Pitt's (Money)Ballgame. love you Anne

  • Dino | December 25, 2011Reply

    Going in to see "Dragon tatoo" I thought Charlize had the actress awards for the season wraped up! But wait , rooney Mara gave a performance that if you've seen both performances you would feel stupid putting Charlize in the conversation, It's not that charlize is undeserving, it's more that for Mara We see a perfect storm! Character development-execution and an ability to make the viewer twist in their seat while watching. Amazing!!!!

  • ABsidd | January 9, 2012

    MARA was amazing!!!!

  • Hamburger Phone | December 28, 2011

    I loved Charlize in Young Adult!!! Her and Fassy are my fave performances of the year. And idk what Dino is talking about-- "stupid for putting Charlize in the conversation"?? Uh no. Pretty sure Charlize puts every other performance to shame this year. Also why isn't Patton Oswalt in this conversation? He's amazing too!

  • Rebecca | December 28, 2011

    "Character development-execution and an ability to make the viewer twist in their seat while watching" And how do all these things not ring true for Mavis in YOUNG ADULT? Just because she fails to change? I think that's part of the brilliance of the script and the movie as a whole. Mavis is an asshole and as Diablo Cody said, "assholes don't change." It's more or less a character study and for 90+ minutes you are watching a total trainwreck. I really liked the film, although it made me cringe in certain scenes, because it perfectly depicted those kinds of people. And when I say "those kinds"-- I mean people that I actually know. It's CRAZY to think that Mavis' exist and yet I know a couple. I hope the Best Actress line-up will eventually look like this: 1) Williams 2) Swinton 3) Davis 4) Streep 5) Theron

  • Cort | December 28, 2011

    @Heidi- Same feelings. I watched Young Adult a day after I saw Dragon Tattoo... a little mentally scarred here from seeing both films back to back BUT I have to say, Theron blew me away. I went in thinking I was going to get a modified rendition of "Bad Teacher" (btw the ad campaign on YA is incredibly deceptive!) but what I got instead was a sociopath/alcoholic and BOY did I LOVE IT! I agree with what you said about only a few actors could pull this role off and honestly I can't think of anyone else than Charlize Theron as Mavis Gary. She was terrific. Mara is good but not Oscar-worthy in my opinion. Theron also has many friends in the Academy who I would HOPE would root for her. Lets reward challenging roles, ladies and gents!

  • Heidi | December 28, 2011

    100% DISAGREE. I thought Mara was great, even fantastic, in Dragon Tattoo but if it were between Mara and Theron (and it very well could be) there is no doubt in my mind Theron is the most deserving. What she pulls off in Young Adult is highly impressive-- the kind of work only certain actors could pull off. Mara will have to deal with being constantly compared to Rapace, who IMO is the ultimate Lisbeth Salander. And if you want to talk about twisting in your seat-- have you even seen Young Adult? I'm pretty sure 99% of the audience was squirming in their seat due to Mavis' actions... especially the breakdown scene on Buddy's front yard. OH MY GOD. I have never felt more uncomfortable watching someone unravel. I was so so so impressed by Theron-- this is even better work than Monster. I really hope she gets nominated. She deserves more than Streep, Close, and Davis-- that's for sure.

  • Hailey | December 24, 2011Reply

    Anne, in regards to your most recent comment about Albert Nobbs and Glenn Close-- I could not agree with you more! How in the world did she get a SAG and GG nomination? The BFCA had it right by not nominating her! The film is very bad, borderline horrible, and it's rocking a measly 40-something percent on Rotten Tomatoes. That's J. Edgar level bad! Just because something reeks of a desperate nomination does not mean it should be rewarded. I really hope, for the sake of all that is holy, that CHARLIZE THERON gets in. Anne, YOUNG ADULT was one of my favorite films this year. Why must SAG be so uptight? They failed to nominate MICHELLE WILLIAMS in BLUE VALENTINE last year. Is it because the film made them very uncomfortable? Because it's like putting a mirror up to yourself? Shameful, really. I hope the ACADEMY reverses that decision and nominates Theron. Can't wait for next weeks OSCAR TALK!

  • saw see | December 21, 2011Reply

    NOT a single truly daring, fresh or essential picture to be had. MEANWHILE, as those Siberian winds crack down on Tibet, Manchuria and North Korea and ALLLLL the prison camps, organ harvesting ops, and enforced EUGENICS 'facilities', Hollywood BALKS from the staggeringly relevant 60th Anniversary of the -------------------------------KOREAN WAR--------------------------------. '--The list IS alive!' ----YES! the list of PERPETRATORS.

  • Jamie | December 21, 2011Reply

    I think its very foolish for anyone to be counting out ELIC... That film is not out of the running bc a few critics didnt get what they expected. They seem to be punishing it for not being ready in time to screen sooner. Bottom line, When you have a first time actor like Horn, with that type of material, a performance being that good, you better believe the director (if not horn himself) if that director is Stephen Daldry to get a nod!

  • Anne Thompson | December 19, 2011Reply

    Glenn Close is by no means a lock--when Albert Nobbs opens the critics will pull its pants down and she could get hurt by that--Janet McTeer is a safer bet. But Young Adult did not get the love from SAG, a telling sign. Golden Globes are less indicative of where Theron is than SAG. She gives a terrific performance as a hateful character, is part of the problem. The movie, which I admire, makes people uncomfortable. And the Academy is packed with seniors. That's why smart indie demo movies we admire like Young Adult and Drive (a violent genre film) don't necessarily play for them.

  • Abby | December 28, 2011

    This makes me really sad :( They nominated Monique and Javier Bardem (hell they both won!)-- and they played hateful characters. Why not Theron? Ugh, she's my favorite performance of the year. Better than all the other contenders, even Rooney Mara. I hope they nominate her.

  • Sketchbook | December 19, 2011Reply

    You write that Woody Allen's pic is "unlikely to score much" beyond >> best pic, director and writer nominations..." Well, c'mon. That ain't much?? As Charlie Chan said, "Nut easy to crack often empty."

  • Anne Thompson | December 19, 2011

    What I mean is that it will be tough for Midnight in Paris to beat The Artist for best picture--it would need to be nominated in more categories in order to do so. It's a strong contender!

  • Tiki | December 19, 2011Reply

    Where's Charlize Theron? Oh come on, Glenn Close??! Ugh, her stupid narrative for being nominated is such B.S.-- you can get a career prize when you are in a GOOD film or you give a GOOD performance in a film. Take Gary Oldman for example. Why is he being shut out? Close gives a mediocre performance in an extremely boring and overall bad film. I really hope the actor's come through and take Theron over Close. This category is shaping up to be the over-the-hill category.

  • Cinesnatch | December 19, 2011Reply

    So much is wrong with this list, I don't even know where to begin.

  • Erin | December 5, 2011Reply

    Seriously folks! DOMINIC COOPER - DEVIL'S DOUBLE!!!!!!

  • JAN | December 5, 2011Reply

    So Drive doesn't have any buzz in Hollywood right now?

  • Marco | December 4, 2011Reply

    War Horse in both sound edit and mix

  • happea | November 27, 2011Reply

    Supporting Actress- Jennifer Ehle, Contagion

  • Luv4Films | November 23, 2011Reply

    Drive - Best (Director, Actor, Supporting Actor)

  • CL | November 16, 2011Reply

    Drive should get a lot more nominations - directing, score, Gosling and Brooks for actors, cinematography. It was just a really brilliant movie and deserves a lot more attention from the academy!

  • Felipe | November 11, 2011Reply

    I Think Marion Cotillard should be nominated this year to best supporting actress. She is more talented and gave better work than Shailene Woodley, Sandra Bullock, Amy Ryan, Octavia Spencer, Janet McTeer. It's stupid ignore her other year as was with Nine and Inception.

  • Steve G | September 17, 2011Reply

    Is Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus a Frontrunner for a Supporting Actress nod?

  • mary | September 17, 2011Reply

    I think that Michael Fassbender (Shame), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon) and Carey Mulligan (Shame) may also have chance to get Oscar nominations.

  • dennycrane | August 28, 2011Reply

    I agree you missed out Drive for supporting actor, cinematography, actor, director and long shot picture

  • paula | August 19, 2011Reply

    Love your site. Saw a screening of Drive tonight. OMG. Doesn't the director get on the list? What about Albert Brooks? Amazing movie. Also should be considered for music. Thanks

  • Kamil | July 29, 2011Reply

    Glad to see Kirsten Dunst on the contenders list. She really deserves the nomination and possibly a win for her bravura performance!

  • Riley | July 11, 2011Reply

    Love your blog Anne, but I must say that I would think that Midnight in Paris is a firm front runner at this point in the 'race'. Having said that, it is July and the race is as exciting as watching paint dry.

  • Brian | July 11, 2011Reply

    Where are BRIDESMAIDS and TRANSFORMERS 3?!

  • mohamed laraki | November 12, 2011

    hahahahhaha no way bridesmaids ...transformers......this is the oscars....wake up

  • consindered flim wacther | July 9, 2011Reply

    Where's the fianal Harry potter flim in this? What is the piont of the Oscars any way? It's a plan bais compention! At least give the final HP movie, the Oscar it desevers!

  • Akash | December 19, 2011

    it sucked n it dont deserve an oscar??

  • Koto | April 12, 2011Reply

    Looking forward to seeing updates in every month. FYI,I'd like to post some possible Oscar contenders this year. ASHES(It's shooting now and will be completed by September):Although director is not famous(Mat Whitecross),but the cast(Ray Winstone, Jim Sturgess, Lesley Manville, Jodie Whittaker(Attack the Block) and Luke Evans) is excellent.Here is early info. http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/ray_winstone_jim_sturgess_lesley_manville_team_for_noir_ashes_film/ Further info:It's a father-son story.Producer also calls "Ashes" a “road movie” and further describes it is a thriller noir.Sturgess plays the son of an Alzheimer’s victim, played by Winstone. Manville, Whittaker and Evans are supporting. It is comfirmed Coldplay will also score the film.I think it will be contender for acting and score、at least. (Here is Jim Sturgess interview on the set and more info and link to Winstone and producer interviews. http://jimsturgessonline.com/?p=6314) UPSIDE DOWN(I think it's completed now): director is relatively unknown(Juan Diego Solanas),but he is a Cannes/Cesar winner for brilliant short film"The Man Without A Head".And UD has great cast.Jim Sturgess,Kirsten Dunst and Timothy Spall(although he is not listed on the IMDb cast list yet).Crew is top-notch.It's very unique fantasy tale."A man searches an alternate universe for a long-lost love from his youth."I'm pretty sure it's visually stunning film.Contender for tech categories,at least.If it's good,it will be contender for Best picture. (*This article is very useful and it has the video of director’s awards winning short film(although some part of this article indicates it might be released next year,but it's not correct). http://m.io9.com//5719023/first-images-from-jim-sturgess-and-kirsten-dunsts-science-fiction-romance-upside-down *Here are some pictures of Jim Sturgess on the set of UD. http://jimsturgessonline.com/images/thumbnails.php?album=145) Sorry for the long post.But I think these two films are worthy to wait.

  • E.ROBERTS | January 24, 2011Reply

    nO MOVIE THIS YEAR CAME ANYWHERE NEAR "kINGS SPEECH"=BOTH IN ACTING,DIRECTING, SCREENPLAY, EVERYTHING. "SOCIAL NETWORK" WAS GOOD, BUT CANNOT BE COMPARED WITH KINGS SPEECH- IT IS MOSTLY A "THRILLER" THANKS TO THE DIRECTION BY fINCHER AND THE SCRIPT BY sORKIN--WHICH MOST MOVIE GOERS DID NOT EVEN UNDERSTAND-- AND WE HEARD SOME FELL ASLEEP OR WALKED OUT- IT WAS OVER THE TOP FOR THEM AND THOSE WITHOUT LEGAL OR INTERNET KNOWLEDGE.

  • DR.E.ROBERTS | January 24, 2011Reply

    HOW CAN THEY LEAVE OUT NAOMI RAPACE -THE BEST ACTRESS OF ANY FILM THIS YEAR????AND THE MOVIE "THE CONCERT" ONE OF THE BEST FOREIGN MOVIES? hOLLYWOOD'S LOW IQ IS RESPONSIBLE.

  • Jordan Welch | December 24, 2010Reply

    Toy Story 3 script is very realistic and the Story touched on rejection, Insecurities, desparation and hope. teaching us to be nice because you never know who will come through for you in the future. It got more grown-up drama then The Social Network and Toy Story 2. Jesse Eisenberg performance in The Social Network is the best he did great job.

  • rj | December 22, 2010Reply

    you got the best picture WAY wrong - Biutiful's #1 - by a LONG SHOT - this film hits ALL the marks and hits 'em dead on....there's been nothing like this film in YEARS - maybe since the Godfather....

  • ari candido | December 13, 2010Reply

    HEAVEN GARDEN by Ari Candido Fernandes Best Photography 2010 PUNTA DEL ESTE DOCUMENTARY & FICTION FESTIVAL Best Actor, Flávio Bauraqui FESTIVAL DE CINE INTERNACIONAL DE BARCELONA 2010 Official Selection 2010 SAN FRANCISCO SHORT FILM FESTIVAL Submitted for the 2010 CHICAGO SHORT FILM FESTIVAL FESTIVAL DU FILM DE STRASBOURG 2010

  • Natalie | December 11, 2010Reply

    Leonardo Dicaprio is long overdue for an Oscar. End of story.

  • Kelly | December 11, 2010Reply

    I definitely think 'If I Rise' from 127 Hours is a contender for Best Original Song. It's so haunting and beautiful.

  • Anne Thompson | October 28, 2010Reply

    I agree that ten best picture nominees is not a good idea. But the Academy is committed to it for three years--at least, I know exiting executive director Bruce Davis was--let's see what happens.

  • Amelia | October 28, 2010Reply

    Kristen Stewart for Welcome To The Rileys should definitely be included in this. It definitely shows she is an amazing actress and is a very good movie !

  • Nick Mayor | October 21, 2010Reply

    The reason the Academy raised the number of nominees to ten was because of all the flack over The Dark Knight not being nominated. The real issue was that The Reader should not have been nominated in the first place. In recent years, it is absurd to have even five nominees, let alone ten. Last year there should have been only 3. Many of the nominees were simply garbage. These film festivals mean much less than industry folks claim. It's like having the MIss America pageant with only 13 states. Many festival winners do not do well come Oscar time.

  • Anne Thompson | September 16, 2010Reply

    When I see The Fighter, I'll believe it.

  • carrie | September 15, 2010Reply

    wait! you don't believe in "the fighter" as contender

  • Brian | September 14, 2010Reply

    If TRUE GRIT turns out to be a halfway decent western, then that'll be my only horse in this race. And that's a big if.

  • *~*Kennedy*~* | September 14, 2010Reply

    So Sam Rockwell is being considered for Best Actor and Hilary Swank isn't. The film is centered around Swank's character and she is leading the entire film - how the heck does that not warrant a concsideration for her. Shame!!! Besides Rockwell should be in the Best Supporting Actor category and NOT Best Actor!!! This isn't the story of Rockwell's character - it is told through the fight and struggle that his sister (Swank) went through to get justice for her brother. This is her story!!! It is 100% a leading role for Swank with Rockwell playing the pivotal supporting role. Finally how come there is no mention for Julianne Moore in either supporting or lead. The whole reason why Annette Bening is being considered has to do with her two recent losses at the Oscars. Moore is equally as deserving as Bening is in that film and both should be equally recognized!!!

  • Terry | September 5, 2010Reply

    All Good Things as a best picture dark horse? Really?

  • jacob c | September 5, 2010Reply

    Client 9 is absolutely brilliant. Best doc of year hand's down, Saw it at Tribeca. It is a mindblower-amazingly well made

  • michelle m. | September 5, 2010Reply

    I think SECRETARIAT might sneak into the Best Picture race...based on the positive buzz coming out of all the early screenings.

  • Brian Whisenant | September 5, 2010Reply

    Maybe I am crazy, but I really think "How To Train Your Dragon" is in the Best Pic race.

  • Duncan Houst | September 4, 2010Reply

    Consider me crazy if you want to, but I have a deep rooted feeling that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 is going to be nominated for Best Picture. If we look at last year, we had Up, Avatar, District 9, Inglourious Basterds, and The Blind Side nominated for Best Picture. This year, so far we only have Inception and Toy Story 3. We don't want to suddenly forget why we expanded to 10 nominations in the first place. It was so this type of film that audiences go for would have a shot. At least three spots MUST be taken by Box Office hits, or the Academy has failed, and we can pretty much say goodbye to the Oscars because nobody will watch them anymore.

  • molly davidson | August 26, 2010Reply

    very sad to see Andrea Arnold's Fish Tank released this year in usa not mentioned, Katie Jarvis and Andrea won great recognition for this film, voted best British Film, over an Education, which was up for best film oscar last year. As it has been said, perhaps not an "Oscar type film" but would loved to give the accadamy credit for picking great film whatever the subject matter. A Baffta and Cannes Dury Prize over Inglorious Bastards ( also an Oscar nominee ) must mean it should be considered, I hope the voters remember the Director Andrea Arnold, and Best British newcomer (over Carey Mulligan) Katie Jarvis and wonderful Cinermatography Robbie Ryan. Please give this independant film a shot.

  • nathan | August 24, 2010Reply

    Surely Toy Story 3 would go under Original Screenplay, it's not an adaptation.

  • Anne Thompson | August 24, 2010Reply

    Toy Story 3 is based on characters originated in Toy Story 1 and 2, and thus is considered an adapted screenplay, as sequels tend to be. Disney confirms this.

  • DarkLayers | August 24, 2010Reply

    DAve, everyone's entitled to their opinion, but it is worth asking one thing? You speak in the passive voice, specifiying nobody. Who forgot "Dark Knight?" One can surely argue it wasn't memorable, and there isn't a need to qualify every statement one makes. I suppose from this context, you mean AMPAS voters. But there were some observations that seemed peculiar from that standpoint. It had considerable presence on top 10 lists from individual critics that year. http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/2009/top_ten/00scoreboard.htm Some of the critics who mentioned in December, when it was apparently "forgotten": Manohla Dargis Roger Ebert Michael Phillips Owen Gleiberman Lisa Schwarzbaum Peter Travers Wesley Morris David Germain Lisa Kennedy Richard Roeper Peter Rainer It was runner-up for Best Picture at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. It got nominated for Best Picture at the PGA and Best Director at DGA. National Board of Review, BFCA, and AFI singled it out as one of the best movies of 2008. I find it interesting that all these groups mentioned it when it was apparently "forgotten." As for "Inception" being a 'popcorn' movie, that's a defensible view. If by popcorn movie, we mean escapism and entertainment are the goals, rather than engagement with substantial ideas. Sam Adams wrote a fabulous piece on Salon that covers the film over several thousand words. He holds the view that the puzzle is fun and challenging, but there isn't a thematic layer beyond or all that much to think about. I find it, nontheless, worth noting some thoughtful commentaries that find much thematic content. http://blogs.suntimes.com/foreignc/2010/07/encounters-at-the-end-of-the-mind.html http://brainbender.blogspot.com/2010/07/inception-philosophy.html

  • Anne Thompson | August 23, 2010Reply

    If there had been ten best picture slots (which I don't like) the year of The Dark Knight, it would have been on it; Inception will be in play this year, as District 9 was last. At minimum, Inception will be up for a rash of technicals. Agree that Tron (sight unseen) should be up for VFX awards as well. Afraid I Am Love needed to be a bigger hit and would need a big push to put Swinton, who gives a masterful performance, into contention. Foreign films need to make a big mark to push an actress into the best actress Oscar race. Swinton is very popular and has won once, for Michael Clayton, so she is in the zone. Much as I love Please Give there seems to be resistance: it too needed to do be a bigger hit.

  • DAve | August 23, 2010Reply

    More or less a fanboy list. Inception will be more or less forgotten by December, as was the Dark Knight. Popcorn movie.

  • Kevin | July 27, 2010Reply

    Tron Legacy is guaranteed a Visual Effects nom and honestly probably a win, should be as easy as Avatar with the Jeff Bridges/Benjamin Button work...

  • Michael Herbertson | July 19, 2010Reply

    Michael Douglas for sure should be a mentioned as a contender for SOLITARY MAN and Julianne Moore will be Best Sup. Actress ( if it goes that way) and Annette will finally winning for Best Actress for THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT. Each deserving and each long over due.

  • Stephen P | July 9, 2010Reply

    Hi Anne, What about Tilda Swinton for I am Love?

  • Bev | June 5, 2010Reply

    Documentary: Restrepo Foreign: Alamar