Oscar Predictions 2013

Awards by Anne Thompson | March 7, 2012 9:19 AM
122 Comments

Here we go again. Here's a first stab at possibilities for next year's Oscar race. At this point, the films are as yet unseen. Cannes in May will start the filtering process (Malick? Salles? Anderson?), followed by Venice and the fall festivals. As always, no film becomes a "front runner" until I have seen it.


Best Picture
Front Runner
"The Surrogate"

Contenders
"Anna Karenina"
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"The Master"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Long Shots
"Argo"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"The Dark Knight Rises"
"Django Unchained"
 "Great Expectations"
"The Great Gatsby"
"Hello I Must Be Going"
"Hyde Park on Hudson"
"On the Road"
"Perks of Being a Wallflower"
Untitled Terrence Malick Project

Actor in a Leading Role
Front Runner
John Hawkes "The Surrogate"

Contenders
Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Leonardo DiCaprio "The Great Gatsby"
Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
Brad Pitt "Killing Them Softly"
Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"

Long Shots
Ryan Gosling "The Place Beyond The Pines"
Clint Eastwood "Trouble With The Curve"
Jamie Foxx 'Django Unchained"
Bill Murray "Hyde Park on Hudson"
Sean Penn "Gangster Squad"
Terence Stamp "Song For Marion"
Denzel Washington "Flight"

Actor in a Supporting Role
Front Runner
William H. Macy "The Surrogate"

Contenders
Bradley Cooper "The Place Beyond The Pines"
Leonardo DiCaprio "Django Unchained"
Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"
David Strathairn "Lincoln"
Joaquin Phoenix "The Master"

Long Shots
Russell Crowe "Les Miserables"
Robert DeNiro "The Silver Linings Playbook"
John Goodman "Argo"
Tom Hardy "The Dark Knight Rises"

Actress in a Leading Role
Front Runners
Helen Hunt "The Surrogate"
Quvenzhane Wallis "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Contenders
Sandra Bullock "Gravity"
Viola Davis "Won't Back Down"
Keira Knightley "Anna Karenina"
Laura Linney "Hyde Park on Hudson"
Julianne Moore "What Maisie Knew"
Michelle Williams "Take This Waltz"

Long Shots
Toni Collette "Jesus Henry Christ"
Marion Cotillard "Lowlife," "Rust & Bone"
Maggie Gyllenhaal "Hysteria"
Jennifer Lawrence "The Silver Linings Playbook"
Blake Lively "Savages"
Melanie Lynskey "Hello I Must Be Going"
Carey Mulligan "The Great Gatsby"
Kristin Wiig "Imogene"

Actress in a Supporting Role
Front Runner

Contenders
Amy Adams "The Master"
Samantha Barks "Les Miserables"
Annette Bening "Imogene"
Sally Field "Lincoln"
Kelly Macdonald "Anna Karenina"
Vanessa Redgrave "Song For Marion"

Long Shots
Laura Dern "The Master"
Maggie Gyllenhaal "Won't Back Down"
Nicole Kidman "The Paperboy"

Animated Feature Film
Front Runner

Contender
"Brave"

Long Shot
"The Lorax"
   
Directing
Front Runner
Ben Lewin "The Surrogate"

Contenders

Paul Thomas Anderson "The Master"
Kathryn Bigelow "Zero Dark Thirty"
Alfonso Cuaron "Gravity"
Tom Hooper "Les Miserables"
Ang Lee "Life of Pi"
Terrence Malick "Untitled"
Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"
Joe Wright "Anna Karenina"

Long Shots
Woody Allen "Nero Fiddled"
Ben Affleck "Argo"
Wes Anderson "Moonrise Kingdom"
Christopher Nolan "The Dark Knight Rises"
Walter Salles "On the Road"
David Siegel & Scott McGeehee "What Maisie Knew"
Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Marc Webb "The Amazing Spider-Man"
   
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Front Runner

Contenders

Tony Kushner, John Logan & Paul Webb "Lincoln"
David Magee "Life of Pi"
William Nicholson "Les Miserables"
Tom Stoppard "Anna Karenina"
Fran Walsh, Phillippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro and Peter Jackson "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

Long Shots
Carroll Cartwright and Nancy Doyne "What Maisie Knew"
David O. Russell "The Silver Linings Playbook"
David Cronenberg "Cosmopolis"
Jose Rivera "On The Road"
Chris Terrio "Argo"

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Front Runner
Ben Lewin "The Surrogate"

Contenders
Woody Allen "Nero Fiddled"
Paul Thomas Anderson "The Master"
Mark Boal "Zero Dark Thirty"
Brenda Chapman and Irene Mecchi "Brave"
Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron & Rodrigo Garcia "Gravity"
Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"

Long Shots
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola "Moonrise Kingdom"
Richard Nelson "Hyde Park on Hudson"
Sarah Polley "Take This Waltz"
Paul Andrew Williams "Song For Marion"

122 Comments

  • Dee | May 24, 2012 1:03 PMReply

    Will Gravity be able to be a contender for the Oscars, since it was moved to a unknown 2013 release date??

  • Heshi | May 23, 2012 12:29 AMReply

    Where's Barbra Streisand for "The Guilt Trip"?

  • Juha Tapani | March 15, 2012 11:29 AMReply

    So...The academy members totally ignored "Melancholia", "Shame", "We Need To Talk About Kevin" and "Drive"...What is there to expect? ...But then again... 1. Jennifer Jason Leigh 0 nominations 2. Linda Fiorentino "The Last Seduction" ignored 3. "Once Were Warriors" ignored 4. Kieslowski`s "Three Colours: "Blue", "White" and "Red" ignored 5 .Composer Michael Nyman 0 nominations...Especially for "The Piano" 6. Jerry Goldsmith`s best score for "Basic Instinct" ignored 7. "Body Heat" totally ignored....! 8. Lars Von Trier`s only nomination for music...What a joke ! 9. Kathleen Turner...Only 1 nomination compere to Meryl Streep`s. Shameful ! 10. Nicole Kidman should have won for "Moulin Rouge" or "The Others". She should have been nominated also: "To Die For", "Dogville", "Birth" and "Eyes Wide Shut" 11. Tom Cruise gave his best performance in "Magnolia" and lost to Michael Caine. Nothing to do with religion...Right ? 12. Sandra Bullock and Julia Roberts have won for best actress. What next...Paris Hilton ??? Maybe next year Academy members actually watch movies, forget the politics, religion, popularity and pc. and bs. We shall see

  • Jen | March 7, 2012 5:14 PMReply

    2013 Best Actress Judy Davis The Eye Of The Storm http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/film-festival-update-vail-san-francisco-sundance-london-video

  • movienotesbook.blogspot.com | February 25, 2012 8:13 PMReply

    Hugo was just disappointing, although it could take home many of the technical awards.

  • ML | February 23, 2012 10:22 PMReply

    I can't believe Clooney was even nominated for that performance.

  • rebi | February 21, 2012 9:51 AMReply

    I don´t think too, that the Academy will give 2 acting Awards for "The Help". Spencer is a lock.

  • Derrick | February 20, 2012 8:07 PMReply

    Other than Acting and Best Picture, why did The Help get Screenplay, Directing nor Cinematography nomination??? Hope Viola Davis wins Best Actress. Octavia Spencer has Supporting Actress. Everyone saying George Clooney got Best Actor but I think Jean Dujardin got it. And Christopher Plummer for Supporting Actor. After The Help winning everything at the SAG awards, it could be a surprise and a upset if they win Best Picture but knowing it won't happen since they didn't get Best Directing, nor Screenplay nomination!!!!!! The Artist will probably win!

  • Rebi | February 21, 2012 9:46 AM

    I really hope Meryl Streep will win. And my feeling says she will. She won the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, the Golden Globe and the Bafta. Just to name a few. If other actresses had win this awards they would be a lock for an Oscar! And I don´t get it, why people so sure that Viola Davis will win? I think it´s a neck to neck race and the race is still open. And remember, not every Sag voter is an Academy member! Sometimes I think Streep can be great in whatever she does, but it seems that it

  • Derrick | February 20, 2012 8:08 PM

    Why "didn't" the Help get Screenplay, Directing nor Cinematography nomination????? That's what I meant to say!

  • jak | February 15, 2012 7:43 PMReply

    "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" was very average. Be very hard to call it Oscar worthy filmmaking.

  • Fagatron | February 15, 2012 6:22 PMReply

    b.A. Will be viola davis S.a. will be octavia yes thats all the awards for thr help. B.A. should be clooney but it will be that charming and sexy french man. S.A. Will be max, the academy loves to award these type of roles. B.P. Will be the artist B.D. Will go god the field is too tough but im hedgging my beats on the french. b.f.f. Will go to a seperartion

  • Judy Candelario | February 14, 2012 12:40 PMReply

    George clooney will win . Hope the foreing film a separation wins great movie , indeed great drama . Glenn close will Take an oscar as well . Hope best movie is the desendents i loved it

  • Don | February 14, 2012 2:48 PM

    Judy Judy Judy. You vote with your heart. This is not about what you think, but rather what the Academy thinks. But we still love you because you say what you feel. It bothers me that Glenn Close has been nominated six times for an Oscar and never won, and yet has won three Tonys, an Obie, three Emmys, two Golden Globes, and a Screen Actors Guild Award. Her time may never come, but she went further than most. Plus, she has awesome breasts!

  • Justen N. | February 12, 2012 7:49 PMReply

    Winners: The Artist as Best Picture Clooney as Best Actor Streep as Best Actress Plummer as Best Male S.A. Spencer as Best Female S.A. Hazanavicius as Best Director 'Books' as Animated Short Rango as Animated Movie

  • BOO | February 11, 2012 8:24 AMReply

    I hope theses aren't the winners. It's too obvious and predictable, with no surprises, but that's kind of what they do anyway.

  • tom | February 11, 2012 4:38 AMReply

    bullhead and in darkness are greater than others.one of them should be winner

  • Gary | February 6, 2012 5:49 PMReply

    Paradise Lost 3 will win Doc feature. I think Dujardin (did you see him on Leno Friday night--God what a charmer!), Davis, Plummer, will also win. However everybody thinks Spencer is a "lock" for supporting actress--just like everybody thought Lauren Bacall was 15 years ago--BUT a French woman upset her (Juliette Binoche) and I think Bejo is right on her heels and could definitely win in an "Artist" sweep.

  • light | February 6, 2012 10:13 AMReply

    Martin Scorsese should be winner. Hugo is very beautiful and in darkness and bullhead are great movies. I like bullhead is a fabulous .

  • Arthur Wachholz | February 4, 2012 3:08 PMReply

    One of the worst pictures I have ever seen. How it was nominated I'll never know.

  • Justen N. | February 12, 2012 7:51 PM

    Talking about extremely annoying and incredibly repetitive?

  • hassan | February 2, 2012 3:48 AMReply

    just ____A SEPARATION____

  • Ryan Sartor | February 1, 2012 9:58 AMReply

    Did you mean to pick dragon tattoo or hugo for sound editing?

  • Eithan | February 1, 2012 2:37 AMReply

    in the actress category: I find it hard to believe that "The Help" will score both acting categories - and nothing else. I do believe that the supporting actress award will go to spencer, but in the leading role my money is on Michelle Williams - who is a well respected and loved acrtress (and so she should be. she's very good). Also - she's an actress playing an actress. Cate Blanchette won an oscar for a similar thing a few years ago. And although the film itself ("My week with Marilyn") isn't the moving film it could have been, I think that it is her time to win (And BTW, if I had a vote, I would vote for Kenneth Branagh. But Christopher Plummer is so strong in the race, I don't see anyone beating him). As for the foreign language category: I'm from Israel, and I should say "Footnote". But in recent years the Academy has been notoriosly known for Not awarding the world's favorite (This year - Iran). Instead, the Academy is a sucker for mushy emotional films. This is why my money is on Canada.

  • Xavier | January 30, 2012 10:33 PMReply

    I have a hard time predicting a movie that has no words for a screenplay win, I might have to see where WGA goes for that one before I make that prediction. I'm still not sure about the sound awards, its a weird selection this year. After the DGA and SAGs I definitely think that Direction and Best Actor have swung to Hazanavicius and Dujardin. I do think the Foreign Film will actually go to the favorite this year as its also an emotional and personal film.

  • punch drunk fool | February 20, 2012 7:32 PM

    I see what you mean about the nom for The Artist for screenplay but I think it deserved it because a screenplay, whether there's dialogue or not, tells what we see on the screen and who the characters are an what the story is. And I really hope A Seperation wins best foreign. I also think it kinda blows that Midnight in Paris, though very Woody-esque is being praised over A Seperation and The Artist. Both were much better than Paris. But where is Beginners?

  • normita astronomo | January 28, 2012 3:54 PMReply

    all beautiful films especially "HUGO" tree of life . i thank all who contributed in making such movies that make sense.

  • jason | January 28, 2012 2:24 PMReply

    The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences determined Friday that it will officially credit four producers, instead of three, for “The Tree of Life.” so where is Johnny Depp for Hugo ‘s producer .his company ‘s logo is after GK .what’s the hell. why they didn’t say any thing? he should be nominated .

  • 4tell.me | January 26, 2012 7:06 AMReply

    We've set up a prediction game that includes the Oscars. You can play and make your own predictions at www.4tell.me

  • Greg909 | January 25, 2012 12:31 PMReply

    Best animated short film will go to: "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg. Check it out here: vimeo.com/35404908

  • gabriel | January 25, 2012 11:58 AMReply

    Midnight in Paris will win Best Original Screenplay instead of The Artist.

  • light | January 25, 2012 3:34 AMReply

    it's silly list .where are Tilda Swinton, Albert Brooks.best original 50/50 ,take shelter . Project Nim (documentary ) ? ides of march is nominated for screenplay? ??????

  • joe | January 25, 2012 3:31 AMReply

    Tilda Swinton, Albert Brooks. best Screenplay - Steve Zaillian“The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo,best original screenplay 50/50,take shelter , Project Nim (documentary ) are out . it’s silly ides of march is nominated for screenplay? (Because of Clooney?) pitt is producer of moneyball ,so where is Johnny Depp for hugo’s producer .his name and company are as producer in list and movie’s website.

  • Name susan | January 24, 2012 11:55 AMReply

    Your Comment Please respect the memory of three murdered boy scouts. Do not vote for Paradise Lost 3. It is a slanted and incomplete portrait of the three who killed, confessed, were found guilty and pled guilty to these barbaric murders.

  • NameSusan | January 24, 2012 11:58 AM

    Your Comment SEE: calahan8k.com and wm3truth.com for information the "documentary" makers did not want you to learn.

  • Morgan | January 24, 2012 5:56 AMReply

    The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will get a BP nom.

  • Martin | January 24, 2012 5:38 AMReply

    I posted my own predictions hours before the announce...some similarities, and also some differences with IW. Check and comment: http://www.mondoglam.com/2012/01/predicciones-al-oscar-2012-ultima.html

  • vint | January 24, 2012 5:16 AMReply

    I'm confused: Tate Taylor isn't a lock for an Oscar nomination for Director, because he wasn't recognized by the DGA (wasn't nominated for their award), yet Terrence Malick -- who also wasn't nominated by the DGA -- makes your list of likely nominations? Gotta say, between the two films -- "The Help" and "Tree of Life" -- I enjoyed "The Help" far more, and thought that Malick not only resorted to a lot of his standard "tics" (the whispered voice-over, etc.), he was as self-indulgent as a film school student with his overly long shots of the universe (symbolism should NEVER be that heavy-handed in a film). Here's hoping that Malick DOESN'T get the nod for that flick (it was more of a cinematography stunt, than a directorial -- i.e., editing, etc. -- effort), and that Talyor, for "The Help", gets it instead (along with Allen for "Midnight in Paris", Hazanavicius for "The Artist", Payne for "The Descendants" and Scorsese for "Hugo", or Speilberg for "War Horse").

  • navid | January 24, 2012 12:25 AMReply

    I saw befor a sepration and i think it has a very nice story and I really want ASGHAR FARHADI to get a best FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Jenn | January 23, 2012 2:11 PMReply

    I really want Bennett Miller to get a Best Director nomination. I'm starting to doubt it will happen at this point, but I'm holding out for a miracle.

  • Lily | January 18, 2012 7:04 AMReply

    oh how I hope Melissa McCarthy makes it in for 'Bridesmaids' = BAFTA+SAG+BFCA // don't stop her now!

  • bright | January 15, 2012 2:57 PMReply

    I agree with declaration of war but in darkness is great movie and where do we go now is fabulous .they should be front runner .one of them should be winner a oscar

  • joe | January 15, 2012 3:02 AMReply

    where do we go now and "Declaration of War"(France) are the great movie. one of them should be win.

  • Aaron | January 13, 2012 4:15 PMReply

    where is "Take Shelter" on this list tisk tisk

  • Oscar | January 11, 2012 3:51 PMReply

    If Rooney Mara isn't nominated and at least a strong contender it will be a travesty. A truly fantastic performance. I also think that Michael Hazanavicius and Alexander Payne are locked in for a nom but the other three spots I'm not so sure. Fincher certainly has a chance, but I think Malick will definately get a spot (the Academy usually enjoy his work and The Tree of Life was a triumph of a return) and I wouldn't count out Tomas Alfredsson or Nicholas Winding Refn either. Drive I would guess is going to be nominated for cinematography as well.

  • Annie | January 10, 2012 5:26 PMReply

    I hope LEONARDO DICAPRIO wins this oscar. He is phenomenal in J. Edgar and long overdue too.

  • john | February 16, 2012 3:55 AM

    no chance,hes not even nominated.

  • Gemini71 | January 10, 2012 7:55 AMReply

    Am I the only one who thinks that Melanie Lynskey deserves a nomination for 'Hello, I Must Be Going'? Surely, there must be others who would like to see her rewarded with the chance to reach A-list leading lady status. I have been waiting seventeen years for it to happen.

  • Ivan | January 9, 2012 6:24 PMReply

    Viola Davis could beat Meryl Streep OR MICHELLE WILLIAMS. I think Anne always deliberately forget to mention Williams, who's in the race very much.

  • absidd | January 9, 2012 2:33 PMReply

    I want The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo to win best Director and Best Picture. A nom for Mara would be nice.

  • JOHN | February 16, 2012 3:56 AM

    the academy doesnt care about on who you want to win.

  • Troy | January 8, 2012 9:31 PMReply

    The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo should have more nominations. It's by far the best movie of the year and perhaps the best movie from a novel of the last decade.

  • Xavier | January 14, 2012 11:33 PM

    On the contrary Yulb only a close minded one would be childish enough to use the phrase " please hop off Fincher's dick" to a fan of a genius director. Your idiocy amazes me.

  • yulb | January 9, 2012 1:54 AM

    Hahahahaha! Oh simple minded one, please hop off Fincher's dick.

  • Gemini71 | January 8, 2012 10:22 AMReply

    My own list for Best Actress nominations would include Melanie Lynskey for her lead role in 'Hello, I Must Be Going'. She has been acting in close to forty films, but so far, a big breakthrough has eluded her. This is her first proper lead role since she took on the challenge of portraying Pauline Parker in 'Heavenly Creatures', and getting a mention in this category will only serve to make industry figures in the movie business acknowledge her as a leading lady of the future.

  • Trent Ledford | January 3, 2012 3:17 PMReply

    My Oscar prediction are different from this. Some of the movie should not get nominated. These are ten other movies that should get talked about for Best Film and Director. I think at least three of these movies should get a nom for best film and director. These movies showed art. Super 8 Melancholia The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Midnight in Paris Contagion Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 Drive Source Code The Muppets My Week With Marilyn Hanna Bridesmaids I will be discussion the oscar as the day comes closer on blog and on Facebook and twitter. www.facebook.com/trentjledford http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003340684704 @trent_ledford

  • Sam B. | January 3, 2012 2:58 PMReply

    Where's Rooney Mara in all of this? Although she may not win Best Actress, she gave a remarkable performance in Dragon Tatoo, and at least deserves a nomination. I personally believe she deserves it.

  • absidd | January 9, 2012 2:34 PM

    I totally agree with you. Hope Fincher wins the Best Director Oscar.

  • Greg | December 31, 2011 9:25 AMReply

    the easiest pick is Brad Pitt for MONEYBALL (long career, does good things for those in need, married to AJ, also did TREE OF LIFE, is brave enough to not be Photoshopped at times, and is gorgeous and charming). If Close gets nominated, she could very well get one of those "career" awards (she should have won for Dangerous Liaisons), plus she plays a man and has shepherded this project for what 15 years. With the reviews for THE IRON LADY, Streep will be nominated but won't win (I mean, we all know she'll be back up for something next year or the year after). If there's no Close, I'm guessing Viola David for THE HELP. The only caveat would be whether a vengeful voting block wants to kick Fox Searchlight for dumping MARGARET. Chris Plummer will win Best Supporting as a career award. (I'm surprised that Viggo is not on your list.) I don't really see how anyone can beat Jessica Chastain, with what, FIVE, very well reviewed performances in 2011, which covered an enormous range. Cinematography goes to THE TREE OF LIFE, because the voters have to give it SOMEthing. Astonishingly, BRIDESMAIDS will win Best Original Screenplay. For Adapted Screenplay, Sorkin won last year so he's out. It's going to go to Payne as a consolation prize as it's the only Oscar The Descendants will win. Director -- oh so tricky category. I think this may be a Fosse/Coppola year where Picture doesn't match with Director. So we're really looking at Scorsese/Spielberg/and yes, amazingly enough, David Cronenberg (Payne gets the Screenplay osscar so he's out. Fincher, no chance even for a nom and I love Fincher. I live in NYC and I'm actually feeling zero buzz in the air about THE ARTIST, but then I may just be stupidly misinformed. So we can eliminate Spielberg because of the reviews. Scorsese vs. Cronenberg, me thinks - I would be stunned if it went to Cronenberg, but then he does have a body of work and this will be one of the few films Oscar voters could actually vote for, for him (needless to say, he was not nominated for THE BROOD - I guess the Academy felt a little queasy watching Samantha Eggar lick the placenta off her mutant baby). I have to hold off on that one; and there is the issue of whether HUGO peaked a tad by not opening on Xmas Day or that Friday. Picture -- I'm thinking HUGO (which would bring about the Fosse/Coppola Syndrome if Cronenberg or someone else takes it from Scorsese). But no matter what, it's Pitt's (Money)Ballgame. love you Anne

  • Dino | December 25, 2011 3:11 PMReply

    Going in to see "Dragon tatoo" I thought Charlize had the actress awards for the season wraped up! But wait , rooney Mara gave a performance that if you've seen both performances you would feel stupid putting Charlize in the conversation, It's not that charlize is undeserving, it's more that for Mara We see a perfect storm! Character development-execution and an ability to make the viewer twist in their seat while watching. Amazing!!!!

  • ABsidd | January 9, 2012 2:36 PM

    MARA was amazing!!!!

  • Hamburger Phone | December 28, 2011 3:06 AM

    I loved Charlize in Young Adult!!! Her and Fassy are my fave performances of the year. And idk what Dino is talking about-- "stupid for putting Charlize in the conversation"?? Uh no. Pretty sure Charlize puts every other performance to shame this year. Also why isn't Patton Oswalt in this conversation? He's amazing too!

  • Rebecca | December 28, 2011 3:02 AM

    "Character development-execution and an ability to make the viewer twist in their seat while watching" And how do all these things not ring true for Mavis in YOUNG ADULT? Just because she fails to change? I think that's part of the brilliance of the script and the movie as a whole. Mavis is an asshole and as Diablo Cody said, "assholes don't change." It's more or less a character study and for 90+ minutes you are watching a total trainwreck. I really liked the film, although it made me cringe in certain scenes, because it perfectly depicted those kinds of people. And when I say "those kinds"-- I mean people that I actually know. It's CRAZY to think that Mavis' exist and yet I know a couple. I hope the Best Actress line-up will eventually look like this: 1) Williams 2) Swinton 3) Davis 4) Streep 5) Theron

  • Cort | December 28, 2011 2:58 AM

    @Heidi- Same feelings. I watched Young Adult a day after I saw Dragon Tattoo... a little mentally scarred here from seeing both films back to back BUT I have to say, Theron blew me away. I went in thinking I was going to get a modified rendition of "Bad Teacher" (btw the ad campaign on YA is incredibly deceptive!) but what I got instead was a sociopath/alcoholic and BOY did I LOVE IT! I agree with what you said about only a few actors could pull this role off and honestly I can't think of anyone else than Charlize Theron as Mavis Gary. She was terrific. Mara is good but not Oscar-worthy in my opinion. Theron also has many friends in the Academy who I would HOPE would root for her. Lets reward challenging roles, ladies and gents!

  • Heidi | December 28, 2011 2:55 AM

    100% DISAGREE. I thought Mara was great, even fantastic, in Dragon Tattoo but if it were between Mara and Theron (and it very well could be) there is no doubt in my mind Theron is the most deserving. What she pulls off in Young Adult is highly impressive-- the kind of work only certain actors could pull off. Mara will have to deal with being constantly compared to Rapace, who IMO is the ultimate Lisbeth Salander. And if you want to talk about twisting in your seat-- have you even seen Young Adult? I'm pretty sure 99% of the audience was squirming in their seat due to Mavis' actions... especially the breakdown scene on Buddy's front yard. OH MY GOD. I have never felt more uncomfortable watching someone unravel. I was so so so impressed by Theron-- this is even better work than Monster. I really hope she gets nominated. She deserves more than Streep, Close, and Davis-- that's for sure.

  • Hailey | December 24, 2011 8:48 PMReply

    Anne, in regards to your most recent comment about Albert Nobbs and Glenn Close-- I could not agree with you more! How in the world did she get a SAG and GG nomination? The BFCA had it right by not nominating her! The film is very bad, borderline horrible, and it's rocking a measly 40-something percent on Rotten Tomatoes. That's J. Edgar level bad! Just because something reeks of a desperate nomination does not mean it should be rewarded. I really hope, for the sake of all that is holy, that CHARLIZE THERON gets in. Anne, YOUNG ADULT was one of my favorite films this year. Why must SAG be so uptight? They failed to nominate MICHELLE WILLIAMS in BLUE VALENTINE last year. Is it because the film made them very uncomfortable? Because it's like putting a mirror up to yourself? Shameful, really. I hope the ACADEMY reverses that decision and nominates Theron. Can't wait for next weeks OSCAR TALK!

  • saw see | December 21, 2011 1:32 AMReply

    NOT a single truly daring, fresh or essential picture to be had. MEANWHILE, as those Siberian winds crack down on Tibet, Manchuria and North Korea and ALLLLL the prison camps, organ harvesting ops, and enforced EUGENICS 'facilities', Hollywood BALKS from the staggeringly relevant 60th Anniversary of the -------------------------------KOREAN WAR--------------------------------. '--The list IS alive!' ----YES! the list of PERPETRATORS.

  • Jamie | December 21, 2011 1:23 AMReply

    I think its very foolish for anyone to be counting out ELIC... That film is not out of the running bc a few critics didnt get what they expected. They seem to be punishing it for not being ready in time to screen sooner. Bottom line, When you have a first time actor like Horn, with that type of material, a performance being that good, you better believe the director (if not horn himself) if that director is Stephen Daldry to get a nod!

  • Anne Thompson | December 19, 2011 11:42 AMReply

    Glenn Close is by no means a lock--when Albert Nobbs opens the critics will pull its pants down and she could get hurt by that--Janet McTeer is a safer bet. But Young Adult did not get the love from SAG, a telling sign. Golden Globes are less indicative of where Theron is than SAG. She gives a terrific performance as a hateful character, is part of the problem. The movie, which I admire, makes people uncomfortable. And the Academy is packed with seniors. That's why smart indie demo movies we admire like Young Adult and Drive (a violent genre film) don't necessarily play for them.

  • Abby | December 28, 2011 3:05 AM

    This makes me really sad :( They nominated Monique and Javier Bardem (hell they both won!)-- and they played hateful characters. Why not Theron? Ugh, she's my favorite performance of the year. Better than all the other contenders, even Rooney Mara. I hope they nominate her.

  • Sketchbook | December 19, 2011 6:48 AMReply

    You write that Woody Allen's pic is "unlikely to score much" beyond >> best pic, director and writer nominations..." Well, c'mon. That ain't much?? As Charlie Chan said, "Nut easy to crack often empty."

  • Anne Thompson | December 19, 2011 11:43 AM

    What I mean is that it will be tough for Midnight in Paris to beat The Artist for best picture--it would need to be nominated in more categories in order to do so. It's a strong contender!

  • Tiki | December 19, 2011 3:57 AMReply

    Where's Charlize Theron? Oh come on, Glenn Close??! Ugh, her stupid narrative for being nominated is such B.S.-- you can get a career prize when you are in a GOOD film or you give a GOOD performance in a film. Take Gary Oldman for example. Why is he being shut out? Close gives a mediocre performance in an extremely boring and overall bad film. I really hope the actor's come through and take Theron over Close. This category is shaping up to be the over-the-hill category.

  • Cinesnatch | December 19, 2011 2:22 AMReply

    So much is wrong with this list, I don't even know where to begin.

  • Erin | December 5, 2011 1:59 PMReply

    Seriously folks! DOMINIC COOPER - DEVIL'S DOUBLE!!!!!!

  • JAN | December 5, 2011 1:17 AMReply

    So Drive doesn't have any buzz in Hollywood right now?

  • Marco | December 4, 2011 1:28 AMReply

    War Horse in both sound edit and mix

  • happea | November 27, 2011 12:59 PMReply

    Supporting Actress- Jennifer Ehle, Contagion

  • Luv4Films | November 23, 2011 12:19 PMReply

    Drive - Best (Director, Actor, Supporting Actor)

  • CL | November 16, 2011 8:02 AMReply

    Drive should get a lot more nominations - directing, score, Gosling and Brooks for actors, cinematography. It was just a really brilliant movie and deserves a lot more attention from the academy!

  • Felipe | November 11, 2011 12:14 PMReply

    I Think Marion Cotillard should be nominated this year to best supporting actress. She is more talented and gave better work than Shailene Woodley, Sandra Bullock, Amy Ryan, Octavia Spencer, Janet McTeer. It's stupid ignore her other year as was with Nine and Inception.

  • Steve G | September 17, 2011 5:10 AMReply

    Is Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus a Frontrunner for a Supporting Actress nod?

  • mary | September 17, 2011 2:33 AMReply

    I think that Michael Fassbender (Shame), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon) and Carey Mulligan (Shame) may also have chance to get Oscar nominations.

  • dennycrane | August 28, 2011 10:29 AMReply

    I agree you missed out Drive for supporting actor, cinematography, actor, director and long shot picture

  • paula | August 19, 2011 6:36 AMReply

    Love your site. Saw a screening of Drive tonight. OMG. Doesn't the director get on the list? What about Albert Brooks? Amazing movie. Also should be considered for music. Thanks

  • Kamil | July 29, 2011 9:24 AMReply

    Glad to see Kirsten Dunst on the contenders list. She really deserves the nomination and possibly a win for her bravura performance!

  • Riley | July 11, 2011 12:35 PMReply

    Love your blog Anne, but I must say that I would think that Midnight in Paris is a firm front runner at this point in the 'race'. Having said that, it is July and the race is as exciting as watching paint dry.

  • Brian | July 11, 2011 4:22 AMReply

    Where are BRIDESMAIDS and TRANSFORMERS 3?!

  • mohamed laraki | November 12, 2011 5:57 AM

    hahahahhaha no way bridesmaids ...transformers......this is the oscars....wake up

  • consindered flim wacther | July 9, 2011 12:55 PMReply

    Where's the fianal Harry potter flim in this? What is the piont of the Oscars any way? It's a plan bais compention! At least give the final HP movie, the Oscar it desevers!

  • Akash | December 19, 2011 1:43 PM

    it sucked n it dont deserve an oscar??

  • Koto | April 12, 2011 4:45 AMReply

    Looking forward to seeing updates in every month. FYI,I'd like to post some possible Oscar contenders this year. ASHES(It's shooting now and will be completed by September):Although director is not famous(Mat Whitecross),but the cast(Ray Winstone, Jim Sturgess, Lesley Manville, Jodie Whittaker(Attack the Block) and Luke Evans) is excellent.Here is early info. http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/ray_winstone_jim_sturgess_lesley_manville_team_for_noir_ashes_film/ Further info:It's a father-son story.Producer also calls "Ashes" a “road movie” and further describes it is a thriller noir.Sturgess plays the son of an Alzheimer’s victim, played by Winstone. Manville, Whittaker and Evans are supporting. It is comfirmed Coldplay will also score the film.I think it will be contender for acting and score、at least. (Here is Jim Sturgess interview on the set and more info and link to Winstone and producer interviews. http://jimsturgessonline.com/?p=6314) UPSIDE DOWN(I think it's completed now): director is relatively unknown(Juan Diego Solanas),but he is a Cannes/Cesar winner for brilliant short film"The Man Without A Head".And UD has great cast.Jim Sturgess,Kirsten Dunst and Timothy Spall(although he is not listed on the IMDb cast list yet).Crew is top-notch.It's very unique fantasy tale."A man searches an alternate universe for a long-lost love from his youth."I'm pretty sure it's visually stunning film.Contender for tech categories,at least.If it's good,it will be contender for Best picture. (*This article is very useful and it has the video of director’s awards winning short film(although some part of this article indicates it might be released next year,but it's not correct). http://m.io9.com//5719023/first-images-from-jim-sturgess-and-kirsten-dunsts-science-fiction-romance-upside-down *Here are some pictures of Jim Sturgess on the set of UD. http://jimsturgessonline.com/images/thumbnails.php?album=145) Sorry for the long post.But I think these two films are worthy to wait.

  • E.ROBERTS | January 24, 2011 5:47 AMReply

    nO MOVIE THIS YEAR CAME ANYWHERE NEAR "kINGS SPEECH"=BOTH IN ACTING,DIRECTING, SCREENPLAY, EVERYTHING. "SOCIAL NETWORK" WAS GOOD, BUT CANNOT BE COMPARED WITH KINGS SPEECH- IT IS MOSTLY A "THRILLER" THANKS TO THE DIRECTION BY fINCHER AND THE SCRIPT BY sORKIN--WHICH MOST MOVIE GOERS DID NOT EVEN UNDERSTAND-- AND WE HEARD SOME FELL ASLEEP OR WALKED OUT- IT WAS OVER THE TOP FOR THEM AND THOSE WITHOUT LEGAL OR INTERNET KNOWLEDGE.

  • DR.E.ROBERTS | January 24, 2011 5:43 AMReply

    HOW CAN THEY LEAVE OUT NAOMI RAPACE -THE BEST ACTRESS OF ANY FILM THIS YEAR????AND THE MOVIE "THE CONCERT" ONE OF THE BEST FOREIGN MOVIES? hOLLYWOOD'S LOW IQ IS RESPONSIBLE.

  • Jordan Welch | December 24, 2010 5:19 AMReply

    Toy Story 3 script is very realistic and the Story touched on rejection, Insecurities, desparation and hope. teaching us to be nice because you never know who will come through for you in the future. It got more grown-up drama then The Social Network and Toy Story 2. Jesse Eisenberg performance in The Social Network is the best he did great job.

  • rj | December 22, 2010 8:24 AMReply

    you got the best picture WAY wrong - Biutiful's #1 - by a LONG SHOT - this film hits ALL the marks and hits 'em dead on....there's been nothing like this film in YEARS - maybe since the Godfather....

  • ari candido | December 13, 2010 8:13 AMReply

    HEAVEN GARDEN by Ari Candido Fernandes Best Photography 2010 PUNTA DEL ESTE DOCUMENTARY & FICTION FESTIVAL Best Actor, Flávio Bauraqui FESTIVAL DE CINE INTERNACIONAL DE BARCELONA 2010 Official Selection 2010 SAN FRANCISCO SHORT FILM FESTIVAL Submitted for the 2010 CHICAGO SHORT FILM FESTIVAL FESTIVAL DU FILM DE STRASBOURG 2010

  • Natalie | December 11, 2010 7:53 AMReply

    Leonardo Dicaprio is long overdue for an Oscar. End of story.

  • Kelly | December 11, 2010 1:37 AMReply

    I definitely think 'If I Rise' from 127 Hours is a contender for Best Original Song. It's so haunting and beautiful.

  • Anne Thompson | October 28, 2010 5:15 AMReply

    I agree that ten best picture nominees is not a good idea. But the Academy is committed to it for three years--at least, I know exiting executive director Bruce Davis was--let's see what happens.