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Oscar Predictions 2015

Awards
by Anne Thompson
August 11, 2014 12:46 PM
488 Comments
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Grand Budapest Hotel

As the fall festivals loom, here are some possibilities for Oscar consideration for 2015.

Going into the season, only a handful of movies have Oscar potential; their handlers will rely on critics and guild groups to keep them in the conversation over the long haul. They are Wes Anderson's well-wrought hit "Grand Budapest Hotel," which gains points for period but loses some for comedy. Similarly, Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" has earned critics' kudos for its daring and unique 12-year time travel, but remains a small-scale indie that has to sustain itself over a year, from January's Sundance through the long awards slog. 

Also emerging from Sundance with stellar reviews were Fox Searchlight's "Calvary," starring veteran Brendan Gleeson as a wary priest under threat; Roadside Attractions' John Le Carre thriller "A Most Wanted Man," featuring a world-weary Philip Seymour Hoffman in his last leading role; Sony Pictures Classics' moving portrait of a marriage, "Love is Strange," starring John Lithgow and Alfred Molina; and "Whiplash," starring Miles Teller and J.K. Simmons.

That SPC coming-of-age jazz tale went on to play Cannes, which yielded more SPC awards contenders: Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher," starring Steve Carell, Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo; Mike Leigh's exquisite period portrait of a great painter, "Mr. Turner," whose Timothy Spall took home the Best Actor prize; and possible foreign entries "Wild Tales" (Argentina) and "Leviathan" (Russia). EOne debuted David Cronenberg's "Map to the Stars," which yielded a surprise Best Actress win for Julianne Moore, and Saban Entertainment will release Tommy Lee Jones western "The Homesman," starring Jones and Hilary Swank, via Roadside Attractions.

Elder statesman Woody Allen may sit out the season this year, as critics deemed "Magic in the Moonlight" to be a minor entry. 

Richard Linklater's 'Boyhood'
Richard Linklater's 'Boyhood'

One acting vehicle to emerge this summer, Tate Taylor's follow-up to "The Help," Universal's "Get On Up," starring an electrifying Chadwick Boseman as Master of Soul James Brown, needs to cross over to a wider audience to gain long-term Oscar cred.

Still to come are a rash of festival titles--lit adaptations from Jean-Marc Vallee, "Wild," starring Reese Witherspoon; David Fincher, "Gone Girl," starring Ben Affleck and Rosamund Pike; Paul Thomas Anderson, "Inherent Vice," starring Joaquin Phoenix; Weinstein Co.'s "The Imitation Game," starring Benedict Cumberbatch; plus Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's "Birdman," starring Michael Keaton, Edward Norton and Emma Stone, and Jon Stewart's real-life Iranian drama "Rosewater," starring Gael Garcia Bernal--as well as the usual late-year entries that have not yet been booked on the circuit.

In typical fashion, Clint Eastwood is the latest to drop into the race with war film "American Sniper," starring Bradley Cooper, set for Christmas Day. Angelina Jolie directs the Coen brothers screenplay for "Unbroken," the biopic of World War II survivor and Olympic athlete Louis Zamperini, who died before she could complete the film. Rob Marshall ("Chicago") has mounted a lavish Disney version of Stephen Sondheim's fairy tale musical "Into the Woods," starring Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp and Emily Blunt. Ridley Scott's "Exodus: Gods and Kings" (Fox) pits Christian Bale as Moses against Joel Edgerton as Ramses; could it be another spectacular "Gladiator," which took home Best Picture? Christopher Nolan's space odyssey "Interstellar" (Paramount), which stars Oscar-winners Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway as astronauts on a mission to save the world, looks to boast the scale, scope and wonderment of Alfonso Cuaron's "Gravity." Ava DuVernay's sprawling Martin Luther King biopic "Selma," starring David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King, Jr. (Harpo, Plan B, Paramount) is slated for Christmas Day. J.C. Chandor's follow-up to "All Is Lost," 1980s crime drama "A Most Violent Year," stars Oscar Isaac ("Inside Llewyn Davis"), Albert Brooks ("Drive") and Jessica Chastain.

The in-demand actress also stars in Liv Ullmann's Strindberg adaptation "Miss Julie," set for festival play but without a distributor as yet; she also co-stars with James McAvoy in TWC's "The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby," which finally hits theaters this fall in a shortened version show at Cannes followed by the two separate films that showed at TIFF last year. Unless TWC throws in a surprise, their last Oscar entry is Tim Burton's Christmas Day true story "Big Eyes," starring Christoph Waltz and Amy Adams as dysfunctional husband and wife painters. (My overview of TWC's Oscar hopefuls is here.)

As usual there are far more potential leading men than women, although the field will narrow down as the films play out with critics and audiences. 

Nominations are listed below in alphabetical order. As always, no movie will be listed as a frontrunner unless I have seen it. 

Timothy Spall in Mike Leigh's "Mr. Turner."
Timothy Spall in Mike Leigh's "Mr. Turner."

Best Picture

Frontrunners:

  • "Boyhood"
  • "Foxcatcher"
  • “The Grand Budapest Hotel"
  • "Mr. Turner"
  • "Whiplash"

Contenders:

  • "American Sniper"
  • "Birdman"
  • "Gone Girl"
  • "Interstellar"
  • "Into the Woods"
  • "The Theory of Everything"
  • "Unbroken"

Long Shots:

  • "Big Eyes"
  • "Exodus: God and Kings"
  • "Fury"
  • "The Imitation Game"
  • "Inherent Vice"
  • "Men, Women & Children"
  • "A Most Wanted Man"
  • "A Most Violent Year"
  • "Rosewater"
  • "Selma"
  • "Tracks"
  • "Wild"

Actor

Frontrunners:

  • Chadwick Boseman "Get On Up"
  • Steve Carell "Foxcatcher"
  • Ralph Fiennes "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
  • John Lithgow "Love is Strange"
  • Timothy Spall "Mr. Turner" 

Contenders

  • Ben Affleck "Gone Girl"
  • Christian Bale "Exodus: God and Kings"
  • Bradley Cooper "American Sniper"
  • Benedict Cumberbatch "The Imitation Game"
  • Michael Keaton "Birdman"
  • Matthew McConaughey “Interstellar"
  • Jack O'Connell "Unbroken"
  • David Oyelowo "Selma"
  • Eddie Redmayne  "The Theory of Everything"
  • Channing Tatum "Foxcatcher"

Long Shots

  • Robert Downey, Jr. "The Judge"
  • Brendan Gleeson "Calvary"
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman "A Most Wanted Man"
  • Oscar Isaac "A Most Violent Year"
  • Joaquin Phoenix "Inherent Vice"
  • Brad Pitt "Fury"
  • Miles Teller "Whiplash"
  • Christoph Waltz "Big Eyes" 

Actress

Frontrunners

  • Patricia Arquette "Boyhood"
  • Angelina Jolie "Maleficent"
  • Julianne Moore "Maps to the Stars"
  • Mia Wasikowska "Tracks"
  • Shailene Woodley "The Fault in Our Stars"

Contenders

  • Amy Adams "Big Eyes"
  • Emily Blunt "Into the Woods"
  • Felicity Jones "Theory of Everything"
  • Meryl Streep "Into the Woods"
  • Reese Witherspoon "Wild"

Long Shots

  • Jessica Chastain "Miss Julie"
  • Hilary Swank "The Homesman"

Supporting Actress

  • Dorothy Atkinson "Mr. Turner" 
  • Marion Bailey "Mr. Turner"
  • Viola Davis "Get On Up" 

Contenders

  • Helena Bonham Carter "Suffragette"
  • Jessica Chastain "A Most Violent Year"
  • Laura Dern "Wild"
  • Anna Kendrick "Into the Woods"
  • Rosamund Pike "Gone Girl"
  • Emma Stone "Birdman"
  • Emily Watson "Theory of Everything" 
  • Sigourney Weaver "Exodus: Gods and Kings" 

Supporting Actor

Frontrunners

  • Ethan Hawke "Boyhood"
  • Alfred Molina "Love is Strange"
  • Mark Ruffalo "Foxcatcher"
  • JK Simmons "Whiplash"
  • Channing Tatum "Foxcatcher"

Contenders

  • Josh Brolin "Inherent Vice"
  • Benicio del Toro "Inherent Vice" 
  • Albert Brooks "A Most Violent Year"
  • Johnny Depp "Into the Woods"
  • Robert Duvall "The Judge"
  • Logan Lerman "Fury"
  • Edward Norton "Birdman"
  • Tom Wilkinson "Selma"

Director

Frontrunners:

  • Wes Anderson "The Grand Budapest Hotel" 
  • Mike Leigh "Mr. Turner"
  • Bennett Miller "Foxcatcher"
  • Richard Linklater "Boyhood"

Contenders

  • Clint Eastwood "American Sniper"
  • David Fincher “Gone Girl" 
  • Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu "Birdman"  
  • Angelina Jolie "Unbroken"
  • James Marsh "The Theory of Everything"
  • Christopher Nolan "Interstellar" 

Long Shots


  • Paul Thomas Anderson "Inherent Vice"
  • David Ayer "Fury"
  • Tim Burton "Big Eyes"
  • Ava DuVernay "Selma"
  • Rob Marshall "Into the Woods"
  • Jason Reitman "Men, Women & Children"
  • Jon Stewart "Rosewater"
  • Morten Tyldum "The Imitation Game"
  • Liv Ullmann "Miss Julie"
  • Jean-Marc Vallee "Wild"

Original screenplay
 
Frontrunners

  • Wes Anderson "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
  • Mike Leigh "Mr. Turner"
  • Richard Linklater "Boyhood"
  • Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye "Foxcatcher"

Contenders

  • David Ayer "Fury"
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo
  • Graham Moore "The Imitation Game"
  • Jonathan Nolan "Interstellar”

Adapted screenplay

Contenders

  • Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski "Big Eyes"
  • Paul Thomas Anderson "Inherent Vice"
  • Joel and Ethan Coen "Unbroken" 
  • Gillian Flynn "Gone Girl"
  • Anthony McCarten "The Theory of Everything"
  • Jason Reitman & Erin Cressida Wilson "Men, Women & Children"
  • Steve Zaillian "Exodus: Gods and Kings"

Animated Feature 

Frontrunners

  • "The Lego Movie"
  • "How to Train Your Dragon 2"

Contenders

  • "Big Hero 6"
  • "The Book of Life"
  • "The Boxtrolls"
  • "The Penguins of Madagascar"
  • "Song of the Sea"

Cinematography

Frontrunners:

  • Dick Pope "Mr. Turner"
  • Robert D. Yeoman "The Grand Budapest Hotel"

Contenders:

  • Jeff Cronenweth "Gone Girl"
  • Roger Deakins "Unbroken"
  • Robert Elswit "Inherent Vice"
  • Janusz Kaminski "The Judge"
  • Emmanuel Lubezki "Birdman"
  • Hoyt van Hoytema "Interstellar"
  • Roman Vasyanov "Fury"
  • Robert D. Yeoman "Exodus: Gods and Kings"

    Visual Effects

    Frontrunners
    • "Amazing Spider-Man 2"
    • "Edge of Tomorrow"
    • "Guardians of the Galaxy"
    • "Lucy"
    • "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes"

    Contenders

    • "Godzilla"
    • "Captain America: Winter Soldier"
    • "The Hobbit: Battle of Five Armies"
    • "Maleficent"
    • "Transformers: Age of Extinction"
    • "X-Men: Days of Future Past"

    Documentary Feature

    Frontrunners

    • "The Case Against 8" 
    • "Keep on Keeping On"
    • "Last Days of Vietnam"
    • "Life Itself"
    • "Mission: Blue" 

    Contenders:

    • "Code Black"
    • "Finding Vivian Maier"
    • "The Overnighters"
    • "Rich Hill"

    Foreign Language Film (Official Submissions)

    • "Ida" Pawel Pawlikowski (Poland)
    • "White God," Kornél Mundruczó (Hungary)
    • "Winter Sleep," Nuri Bilge Ceylan (Turkey)

    Costume Design

    Frontrunners:

    • "Mr. Turner"
    • "The Grand Budapest Hotel" 
    • "Maleficent"

    Contenders:

    • "Big Eyes"
    • "Exodus: Gods and Kings"
    • "Into the Woods"
    • "The Theory of Everything"
    • "Unbroken"

    Production Design

    Frontrunners

    • "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
    • "Maleficent"
    • "Mr. Turner"
    • "Snowpiercer"

    Contenders:

    • "Big Eyes"
    • "Exodus: Gods and Kings"
    • "The Hobbit: Battle of Five Armies"
    • "Into the Woods"
    • "Interstellar"
    • "Noah"
    • "The Theory of Everything"
    • "Unbroken"

    Original Score

    Contenders:

    • Alexandre Desplat "Unbroken"
    • Jóhann Jóhannsson "The Theory of Everything"
    • Thomas Newman "The Judge"
    • Steve Price "Fury"
    • Gustavo Santaolalla "The Book of Life"
    • Hans Zimmer "Interstellar" 

    Original Song

    Frontrunners:
  • "Begin Again"
  • "The LEGO Movie"

  • Contenders:

    • "The Book of Life"

    Makeup and Hairstyling

    Frontrunners

    • "Foxcatcher"
    • "Guardians of the Galaxy"

    Contenders

    • "Into the Woods"

    Sound Editing

    Sound Mixing

    Film Editing

    Animated Short 

    Live Action Short 

    Documentary Short 

    488 Comments

    • grace | August 25, 2014 10:34 PMReply

      TOM HARDY mejor actor Locke !!!

    • Frank | August 14, 2014 1:30 AMReply

      I always thought Steve Carrell had it in the bag - UNTIL I heard the news about American sniper. Now I'm convinced Bradley Cooper can win his first Oscar. Better update your predictions. It's bradley cooper's year

    • aka | August 12, 2014 11:19 PMReply

      Better update your predictions. American Sniper is coming out THIS year with a limited release on the 25th.

    • aka | August 12, 2014 9:43 PMReply

      Some Quibbles:
      Jessica Chastain not being on the list for Eleanor Rigby. Surely she is at least in contention.
      Meryl Streep being listed as lead for Into the Woods. Based on the play, her character is supporting, not lead.
      Shailene Woodley and Angelina Jolie on the Frontrunner list for best actress. Neither of their respective films fall into the Academy's wheelhouse.
      The odd lack of confidence in Inherent Vice. Early word is that it is more accessible than The Master.
      The complete forgetting of Suite Francaise. Surely a World War II drama backed by Weinstein is at least a contender.
      Lucy being listed as a frontrunner for Visual Effects. I doubt it would get in over VFX driven fare such as The Hobbit, Transformers, and Godzilla.
      And the overconfidence in The Grand Budapest Hotel. Quirky films released in March tend not to be frontrunners for Best Picture.

    • Anne Thompson | August 11, 2014 6:03 PMReply

      Ida is a contender.

    • alec | August 11, 2014 5:36 PMReply

      Anne -- IDA's not a contender for Best Foreign Film? Poland just submitted it last week. Currently $3.6m in N. American box office...

    • Anne Thompson | August 11, 2014 2:18 PMReply

      Hawke, with far less screen time, though choice, is definitely supporting--IFC is considering making Arquette supporting too.

    • Annie Oakdale | August 11, 2014 1:47 PMReply

      Lots of great choices here, Anne, but how is Ethan Hawke not a Best Actor contender instead of Supporting Actor? I thought he carried the movie, good as Patricia Arquette was.

    • Brian | August 11, 2014 1:04 PMReply

      I've only seen two films on the entire 2014 list: GODZILLA and LUCY, both one-word titles. (Lots of other one-word titles on the list.) Unfortunately, LUCY doesn't have a chance of getting nominated in the categories I would have picked: Best Picture and Best Actress. Oh, well...time to sit back and wait for EXPENDABLES 3 to open. Some sixth sense tells me not to expect it to get nominated for anything.

    • Anne Thompson | August 10, 2014 1:18 PMReply

      The Lego Movie is eligible for animation. And I'll need to see what the "Gone Girl" handlers decide to do with Pike. And IFC has yet to decide which way they are going to go with Arquette. I think it makes her role more significant and important to campaign for Best Actress.

    • Joey | August 9, 2014 9:02 PMReply

      Rosamund Pike's character in Gone Girl is a leading role. It's equal in size to Affleck's.

    • Jen Downy | August 9, 2014 8:19 PMReply

      I think Arquette has an even better chance in supporting - I think it is a supporting role (some actresses have gotten in lead with less, but she could probably win in supporting).

    • Anne Thompson | August 9, 2014 8:14 PMReply

      Wild runs the risk of being an outdoor movie reliant on one performance. That's why this could earn a Reese Witherspoon Best Actress nod. Remember the Sean Penn film Into the Wild? The Academy tends to reward scale and scope, period sets and swooping crane shots--and great acting.

      I'm excited about Selma--it could be a soft lob for the Academy-- but Ava DuVernay is not proven at this budget level, I need to see the movie.

      The Imitation Game also needs to be seen--is it a genre thriller (like Morten Tyldum's Headhunters--this is his first English language film) or does it elevate? I love Cumberbatch--but even he couldn't save The Fifth Estate, which at this time last year looked like a potential contender--until it crashed at TIFF.

    • aka | August 12, 2014 12:20 AM

      But Into the Wild would have been most likely nominated have there have been 10 Oscar nominations instead of five in that year

    • Cinesnatch | August 9, 2014 2:16 PMReply

      The lack of confidence here in The Imitation Game, Selma, and Wild is confounding.

    • Mel | August 9, 2014 12:36 PMReply

      wtf? Maya Rudolph has a tiny role in Inherent Vice

    • Anne Thompson | August 9, 2014 8:06 PM

      Good to know!

    • Mallory H. | March 5, 2014 12:23 PMReply

      The Oscars were pretty exciting this year. Still got that Oscar fever? Check out more fun Oscars stuff here.

    • amy | March 4, 2014 5:51 PMReply

      What happened to the predictions article? I thought it was well done!
      (Only three wrong and still very close on the others based on the ranking...)

    • J. McLain | March 3, 2014 12:04 AMReply

      Sandra Bullock should have won HANDS DOWN! What she endured & suffered through in the making of Gravity doesn't even come close to the other women. I'm NOT happy!

    • Jane | March 4, 2014 11:18 AM

      I totally agree with you! Sandra deserves the award!!

    • Kate | February 25, 2014 2:53 AMReply

      "I don't think any other actress could have pulled off Bullock's precise athletic dramatic feat."
      Is Thompson serious? what a laugh.

      "(who has artfully dodged the now fading Woody Allen controversy)"
      Is that necessary, especially given that, like you said, is HAS faded?
      Keep it classy woman.

      Thompson's Gravity bias is stanking all over.

    • Judy | February 24, 2014 11:33 AMReply

      I can't tell what the predictions are. It's just a list of the nominations... Am I missing something? How do we see what the predictions are?

    • John | February 24, 2014 9:09 PM

      They are in order.

    • Brian | February 19, 2014 11:20 AMReply

      @fans of HER:
      A lot of movies with one-word titles have won Best Picture over the years (WINGS, CIMARRON, REBECCA, HAMLET, OLIVER!, PATTON, ROCKY, PLATOON, TITANIC, CHICAGO, CRASH, etc.), including two with only four letters, GIGI and ARGO, but none--I repeat, NONE--with only three letters.
      However, one-word titles have never won two years in a row, so since ARGO won last year, GRAVITY will not win this year. Look for SLAVE or HUSTLE to win.

    • GH | February 18, 2014 9:58 PMReply

      Cate Blanchett has won NYFC, LAFC, NSFC, majority of regional awards for Best Actress, the Golden Globe, BFCA, SAG and now BAFTA. No Best Actress has ever gotten this far to lose the Oscar. She has won more awards than any other nominee in all categories this season. The BAFTA voting was also at the height of Farrow-gate. Yet Blanchett still trump BAFTA darling Judi Dench.

    • Guest | February 25, 2014 2:55 AM

      Well noted actually.

    • fishstick | February 18, 2014 4:44 PMReply

      Nothing, absolutely nothing, looks worse than giving Best Picture to a movie that awards organization obivously doesn't like that much, but is affraid not to award. That's cowardice and cowardice never looks good. 12YS Best Picture wins are really starting to look ridiculous for that reason, since it isn't winning much else, while its nearest competitor is clobbering it. This pattern has been obvious from Golden Globes to BAFTA - they like Gravity more but are affraid not to award "important" movie, espeically since the one they like is sci fi, a genre that never won Oscar for Best Picture.

      Every year is going to have an important movie or two and quirky feel-gooder or two. And if there's a very strong sci fi, it'll be, once again, passed on in favor of what has been awarded before. AMPAS awarded race issue with Crash, so it isn't like 12YS is due for a win for this particular important issue. I say this is the year when AMPAS should finally break the barrier between themselves and sci fi and award sci fi. They obviously like Gravity very much. Grow balls and do what GG and BAFTA had no courage to do - award the movie you like, don't give in to blackmail that boils down to "if you don't vote 12YS you're racist". You are not racist. It's your right to like it less and therefore put it lower on your ballot.

      Sci fi is one of the most lucrative genres, whose boxoffice allows studios to make those important and quirky movies that, sadly, always bust sci fi's hopes of winning best Picture. There are many masterpieces in this genre including Gravity. Voting Gravity the Best Picture will not bring shame in the long run. Quite the contrary, it can revigorate AMPAS that's been critized for having lost touch with general public.

    • anna | February 18, 2014 4:22 PMReply

      does it matter how they want to be perceived though- when the preferential ballot can produce an unintentional result? you didn't even mention that, and that seems to me like the most important factor here. isn't Gravity more likely to rack up those #2 and #3 votes needed to win in a close race? let's say people didn't pick Gravity or 12 Years as #1, then which of those two are they more likely to put ahead of the other? if they were using a normal weighted ballot i'd say 12 Years is more likely to prevail, but this preferential thing makes it a toss-up, doesn't it? i mean, the PGA showed that much

    • James S. | February 18, 2014 3:38 PMReply

      Or "won" an Oscar. Take your pick.

    • James S. | February 18, 2014 3:38 PMReply

      Wow! Here we are, 5 years later, STILL talking about how Kathryn Bigelow one an Oscar because she's a woman. And coming from a woman, no less. Shame, shame, Anne Thompson; you should know better.

    • fishnets | February 18, 2014 4:52 PM

      Anne's right because "make history by awarding a woman" was major part of her narrative that her campaign exloited it to the max. The other one was Battle of Ex's. So it isn't like she won on sheer superioroty of her work. Also, since Hurt Locker is comfortably sitting in Wal Mart's bargain bin for years now, I guess it wasn't all that. IMO, if a guy made that movie, nobody would care.

      IMO, best movie of that year was Inglorious Bastards. Also, Django Unchained >>>>>>>>>>>>> 12YS. Django had something new to say about slavery (Leo's monologue was Holy Smokes!) and told the old story (that Roots already covered much better than 12YS) in a fresh new risky way. Unlike Roots Digest.

    • Vashti Dolan | February 10, 2014 11:57 AMReply

      This year it's a tough call. I think American Hustle will win Best Picture even though I think there are movies way more deserving. I went and made all my Oscar picks at PredictAny highly recommend it. It's a free and fun way to make your Oscar predictions.

    • Parik | February 9, 2014 9:27 AMReply

      I don't know how Spike Jonze missed out on a director nomination - Her was beyond well directed, and the editing superb (the beats from comedy, to drama, to existential commentary was seamless). And how in the world, did Joaquin Phoenix not get a best actor nom for a performance like that - the guy is a modern day Marlon Brando. Also, the cinematography was some of the best - this film should have gotten 9 or 10 noms easy, and easily blows away 12 yrs a slave and Wolf of Wall St with regards to writing, directing, editing. Her is the best picture of the year if the Academy had any sense. Hopefully it does.

    • lilyputian | January 25, 2014 7:34 AMReply

      I think Lupita Nyong'o and Barkhad Abdi should win. They were amazing in their roles. EXTREMELY FANTASTIC. And for people like Barkhad and Lupita, this may be their only chance to ever get nominated much less win anything. Look at Cuba Gooding Jr. How many black men and women ever really get nominated or win an Academy? Give these guys a break, will ya? All you people going on and on about Lawrence being superb and more natural are just completed blinded and biased by her. She's already won an Academy Award. And natural? Really? Her acting was okay but her accent drifted in and out and she just sounded strange at some points. Her performance didn't really move anyone. It wasn't awe-inspiring, it wasn't jaw dropping, it wasn't touching, it wasn't sad or melancholic...It was just good. Nothing to hoo-hah about. Did you guys SEE Lupita and Barkhad? Lupita was just TRAGIC, SAD, INSPIRING, MOVING, TOUCHING and so heart wrenching! And Barkhad Abdi was just so believable and natural and just amazing. This was from a guy who had NO acting experiences!

      In any case, films like American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street are just so god damned overrated, IMHO. They were about a bunch of degenerates who went around conning people and selling penny stocks for 200 of its original worth and just partying, drugs, booze, sex and glorifying all that shit up. They were entertaining stories, don't get me wrong, but are they necessary? Do they serve a higher purpose than just art and entertainment? No, they're fun to watch but you don't get anything out of them. They're not films like The Fighter or Dallas Buyers Club or 12 Years a Slave or Precious. They don't move the audience. They don't make you cry and do a little soul searching. They're just gool ol' fun entertainment.

    • ralph phillips | January 28, 2014 12:39 AM

      Cuba Gooding Jr took away a much deserved award from William H. Macy in Fargo.
      I would Barkhad Abdi based on this years noms but I thought all of the noms for 12 years a slave are undeserved. It was a decent story, but it wasn't great. There have been several black actors who have won in the last 10-15 years so its time to roll back the affirmitive actions votes.

    • Juha Tapani | January 22, 2014 7:12 AMReply

      "Gravity" for best movie, director, editing, music, special effects, actress and cinemaphotography.
      Will it win ...No.

    • Mickey | January 20, 2014 8:26 AMReply

      Why is everyone counting out "her"? That was one of the greatest films I have ever seen, 10 times better then 12 years a slave. It deserves this best picture award.

    • sean | August 9, 2014 2:52 PM

      dede is right. just like kris tapley said, after the first forty minutes were up, the remaining 80 minutes were excruciating. should have just been a short film.

    • Dede | February 20, 2014 7:22 PM

      In your dreams. Her was seriously boring and the writing for AI/Samantha was laughable.

    • Eric | January 16, 2014 3:13 PMReply

      Congrats to Miss Jennifer for her nomination. Her character seemed so authentic and she once again showed that she can play characters that are extraordinarily complex. I'm very proud of her and I think she deserves her second Oscar.
      Lupita was amazing and deserves her nomination. Her acting is different from Jennifers. Lupita seems more theatrical and it reminded me of Anne Hathaway at times. I felt as though I was watching a play rather than a movie. Her movements seemed slightly forced and choreographed. Sometimes I think all the training and education can diminish the portrayl of a character.
      Jennifer would have my vote if I had the opportunity to do so.
      I also think she may win because American Hustle had such a brilliant cast, but I don't think any of the other nominees can pull off a winin their categories. Jennifer may get more votes to honor at least one of the actors from AH.
      I haven't seen all of the other movies. I love Julia Roberts and I think that she is fun to watch in most roles. I don't think this role was particularly Oscar worthy, but she will have more opportunites.

    • Juan | January 16, 2014 11:26 PM

      I completely agree with you. Lupita's acting was a bit theatrical and I did looked choreographed, even thought I was still an amazing and heartbreaking performance. I hope Jennifer wins on Oscar night, but I wouldn't mind if Lupita takes the price home.

    • Matt | January 16, 2014 12:13 PMReply

      You incorrectly state in your summary that Blue Jasmine got a BP nomination.

    • Fifi | January 16, 2014 9:50 AMReply

      As a South African I am glad the Mandela film is not nominated because it is pure crap. British-made capitalistic exploitation of our history. Naomie Harris was nothing but an embarrassment unto herself, Idris Elba tried hard but his performance is not award-winning material.

    • nana17 | January 13, 2014 7:26 PMReply

      fantasia better get a nomination

    • Josh | January 12, 2014 12:54 AMReply

      I would like to see Fantasia get nominated for Best Original Song for In the Middle of the Night. That would be a good look for her and her career.

    • snowb | January 7, 2014 1:34 PMReply

      Who can exceed Cate Blanchett? No one. Amy Adams is as appealing as cold toast and Way too old for the part she played...did they put baby powder all over her face to make her look younger...she looks ridiculous. Matt McC is perfect in Dallas Buyer's Club. As to 12 Years, if you read deeper you'll find that it was written by a ghostwriter, and to make the main character sound like a British aristocrat educated at Oxford is ridiculous. He may have been "educated" for the time but he was hardly the scholar they portray him to be.
      And just out of curiosity, got any "new" plots in Hollywood? Slavery. Been there done that. Greed is good. Been there done that. The Book Thief...Nazis...Been there done that.

      Gravity was the only thing that was original this year.

    • fishnets | February 18, 2014 4:56 PM

      Cate is great in Blue Jasmine but Anne's on the money that nobody could carry Gravity like Sandra. Sandra has incredible charisma on top of easily relatable everywomen charm and looks. Cate is fine in smaller movies like BJ but she could never carry something like this. Different type of presence.

    • drd | January 23, 2014 7:52 AM

      and GRAVITY stunk. nothing more than an action adventure film with amazing tech. work. have seen most of the scenes before.

    • gobrochta | January 11, 2014 12:58 PM

      You clearly haven't seen August: Osage County. I thought Cate was phenomenal, but it's Meryl's best role to date. She was brilliant. She deserves it, as well as Julia. The entire film was brilliant, deserves a hell of a lot more nominations.

    • Mano | January 6, 2014 11:52 PMReply

      'The Spectacular Now' deserves an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. It was brilliant. Bummer that Miles Teller and Shailene Woodley aren't listed too!

    • Adler | January 5, 2014 2:11 PMReply

      Leo among the top five, that's great to see. AMPAS, make this happen:-)

    • fishnets | February 18, 2014 4:58 PM

      Sucks he won't win this year (MM has it in the bag and he's also deserving) but WOWS proved the sky's the limit for Leo, so he'll surpass himself. I think he'll win for something that won't look like an Oscar thing but will blow eevryone away so much he'll fianlly become undeniable and steamroll the season all the way to Oscar gold.

    • Teddy | January 3, 2014 10:08 AMReply

      I've seen all of the possible candidates. If you haven't seen Philomena, go and see why Judi Dench deserves the Oscar.

    • dooobie | January 2, 2014 6:17 PMReply

      AMY ADAMS FOR BEST ACTRESS!!!!

    • Guest | February 25, 2014 3:00 AM

      Adams was cringe-worthy most of the time. Besides, no one else is taking Best Actress.

    • Athena | January 5, 2014 12:33 PM

      Nope...the Oscar will and should go to Cate Blanchett. Adams was good, not great. Jennifer Lawrence clearly outshined Adams hands down so, if Adams as the lead is outshined by Jennifer Lawrence in a supporting role, (granted, I pity any actress having to go up against Lawrence...the woman is a powerhouse) then Adams does not deserve the Oscar.

    • Jasmine | December 9, 2013 9:28 PMReply

      How is Jennifer Lawrence the frontrunner for BSA when she has won 1 critics award and Lupita Nyong'o has now won FOUR? Also, I see August Osage County is being underestimated. Critics won't love it, actors will. The actors branch is going to push that thing over, trust me.

    • gobrochta | January 11, 2014 1:01 PM

      I think Jennifer is a front runner again, because of the maturity she portrayed the role and she'll bring in viewers. Meryl and Julia are not contenders, but frontrunners. They were brilliant, the entire film was flawless.

    • M. | December 24, 2013 10:27 AM

      @Jasmine: Jennifer Lawrence is the frontrunner because Lawrence is phenomenol in American Hustle...read the reviews and they will explain in greater length about how Jennifer Lawrence steals the entire film.

    • Jody | December 8, 2013 8:36 PMReply

      Gravity up for a cinematography award? When it was almost always a CG camera created by a VFX supervisor?

    • lalecture | December 6, 2013 10:45 PMReply

      Are your names in alphabetical order or in order of prediction?
      It will be interesting to see how the steam starts to roll in the next week with LA board of Review, GG and SAG noms.

    • DougW | December 5, 2013 7:54 PMReply

      Pretty sure Jennifer Lawrence is a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress.

    • Nicholas | December 4, 2013 11:40 PMReply

      So I am guessing you haven't seen the best film of the year - 'The Book Thief' with the Best Actress performance by Sophie Nélisse, Best Supporting Actress performance by Emily Watson and Best Supporting Actor performances by Geoffrey Rush & Nico Liersch.

    • mario | November 7, 2013 11:29 PMReply

      I´m sure that Jake Gylenhall will be in an Oscar Contender, he is truly great in Prisoners.

    • Scott Brooks | November 3, 2013 11:17 PMReply

      What about the strong performances of the child performers, film, and supporting actors in "The Inevitable Defeat Of Mister and Pete"?

    • Anne Thompson | October 30, 2013 12:32 AMReply

      Why not? Because it's a romantic comedy from a woman writer-director starring two actors usually associated with television?

    • joshua | November 18, 2013 5:31 PM

      also seems like a reasonable thought process when trying to predict the academy's behaviour.

    • BOO | October 29, 2013 8:53 PMReply

      Enough Said is not an Oscar contender. Guarantee it.

    • Ian | October 24, 2013 6:14 PMReply

      Swap out Emma Thompson and Judi Dench for JLD (long shot, for sure) and Brie Larson (not enough people have seen this gem). The Academy loves great British dames and stories that purports the magic of Hollywood.

    • Anne Thompson | October 24, 2013 12:48 PMReply

      Yes, "Fruitvale Station" and "American Hustle" are categorizing themselves as original screenplays even though they are based on the lives of real people. They are not adapting published memoirs.

    • joshua | November 18, 2013 5:29 PM

      seems reasonable

    • Cinesnatch | October 24, 2013 5:49 AMReply

      Why are Fruitvale and Hustle listed at Adapted? What were they adapted from?

      And, being only "inspired" by a newspaper article, isn't the jury out on the category designation for Butler? Isn't TWC going for Original? And where is Dallas Buyers Club for screenplay, even as a long-shot? And, newsflash, Philomena is getting nominated for Adapted Screenplay.

      Either I didn't get the memo, or this is a hot mess.

    • seren | October 24, 2013 12:32 AMReply

      "Gravity" as frontrunner for Costume Design? I think that must be a mistake. Nothing wrong in "Gravity"'s costumes but I mean, there are only three versions; two kinds of space suits and Bullock's underwears.

    • Donkeypapuas | October 19, 2013 8:56 PMReply

      I sugest you for the best foreign film "The Child Position"

    • drd | January 23, 2014 7:57 AM

      CHILD'S POSE ????

    • seren | October 17, 2013 8:37 AMReply

      Why isn't Amy Adams for "American Hustle" in the contenders?

    • Chaz | October 15, 2013 7:04 PMReply

      I'd love to see Harris Savides at least get a Golden Globe nod for Bling Ring. But thats just me.

    • Boo | October 14, 2013 2:06 PMReply

      How the hell do you consider Nebraska such a frontrunner? The reviews aren't the same as sideways and the descendants. It's not going to make much money and doesnt seem too audience friendly. Yes it will probably be a good movie but it's not oscars and the reviews aren't strong enough. Especially not for director. I mean really. It's not even going to be nominated.

    • Sam | October 12, 2013 4:07 PMReply

      I really liked how you put Brie Larson as a frontrunner for best actress. Too bad the academy has a boner for Cate Blanchett and will obviously give it to her.

      (In her defense she did a good job, just not as good as Brie)

    • Daniel Delago | October 12, 2013 4:08 AMReply

      It's pretentious to give Oscar predictions on films that haven't been seen by the public yet. This list is filled with commercial Hollywood fare and not many indies. Toronto Film Festival this year was flooded with too many Hollywood films. Keep your focus on independent films, Indiewire...

    • Joe H. | October 11, 2013 7:50 PMReply

      Lone Ranger a frontrunner for Cinematography?? haha who wrote this list?

    • A H | January 13, 2014 12:21 PM

      There is a big difference between Cinematography and Visual Effects which is what they put Lone Ranger in as a potential "contender"

    • Brent | October 24, 2013 2:20 PM

      I couldn't agree more.

    • MATTHEW MCCORRECTAUGHEY | September 28, 2013 5:43 AMReply

      FYC, Thompson.

    • Melissa | September 27, 2013 5:06 PMReply

      So you're going with Juila Roberts in Lead huh? Even despite the Hollywood Film Awards nomination (yes I know they're bullshit) but it seems like she'll be pushed in Supporting?

    • Laura | September 26, 2013 6:49 PMReply

      Cameron Diaz ! :D cheetah pet !rawr

    • Jay | September 21, 2013 9:52 PMReply

      How is Disconnect, not on this list? It is by far, the best film I've seen all year and Jason Bateman's performance is definitely Oscar worthy.

    • mike | September 11, 2013 10:26 AMReply

      the film or the actor are not on this list, but 'All is Bright' should be up there and so should paul giamatti for the lead role.

    • david | September 10, 2013 4:28 PMReply

      Brie Larson will not only be mom for an Oscar she will the Oscar for best actress

    • ELDON PERRY | September 14, 2013 5:08 PM

      is she that good ?

      i saw her in 'Rampart' and 'united states of tara'

    • bb | September 9, 2013 3:51 PMReply

      Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave.

    • Leyla | September 9, 2013 10:54 AMReply

      I think Anne should consider Marion Cotillard, she is fenomenal in the immigrant

    • Tom Brueggemann | September 9, 2013 1:10 PM

      Leyla - to my knowledge, The Immigrant hasn't been confirmed as a 2013 release - that could be why she isn't included. Films that appear at Cannes sometimes don't get released until the following year - Mud, for example, premiered at Cannes, didn't play at Toronto, did show at NY, then was released this year.

    • Bruce | September 9, 2013 4:05 AMReply

      Blue Jasmine is frontrunner for best picture ! WoW ! I mean no doubt that Cate Blanchet's performance is an absolute lock on the front and Woody Allen's screenplay but the movie man, I mean have you ever considered Before Midnight should instead be on Blue Jasmine's place or be the fifth frontrunner

    • SHEYLA | September 8, 2013 8:54 PMReply

      Where is Marion Cotillard for The Immigrant??? PLEASE ANNE THOMPSON CONSIDER MARION COTILLARD AND HER BRILLIANT PERFORMANCE!!!!!

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