Oscar Predictions 2014

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• david | April 12, 2013 4:00 PMReply

  You need to include springbreakers as a contender for best picture also James Franco for best actor for springbreakers

• Dave Y | March 5, 2013 12:55 AMReply

  These seem to be very good predictions. Check out the ones at Awards Frenzy too.

• Jack | February 25, 2013 11:19 AMReply

  Sorry but i haven't been able to take the Oscars Seriously for Years.

• the kid | March 27, 2013 7:27 PM

  No need to apoligize. We're not offended.

• Alliegator1105 | February 25, 2013 9:28 AMReply

  This is inaccurate.
  "Best animated short film
  
  "Adam and Dog" Minkyu Lee
  "Paperman" John Kahrs
  "Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"" David Silverman
  "Fresh Guacamole" PES
  "Head over Heels" Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly"
  
  Paperman won this one, I know because we were watching and we saw Paperman in Wreck-It Ralph and got pretty excited when it won.
  
  I don't think Life of Pi should have won that much. I think the Hobbit deserves a lot of the wins.

• Coral | February 25, 2013 12:43 AMReply

  Thanks for posting your predictions! I think you got all of them right except two? I'm making note to come back next year to get your input before casting my ballot!! You were right on!

• Snooby Dooby Doo | February 22, 2013 9:21 PMReply

  Alas, the tide is changing!!!! Riva now has the support of the public, the Europeans, BAFTA, and apparently some Oscars voters. I now think it is a Riva-Lawrence battle too close to call. Hope Riva wins though.

• Barbara | February 21, 2013 4:13 AMReply

  It's taken the Academy 84 years to award just four leading actors (Hepburn, Bergman, Nicholson, Streep) with three Oscars and it took those actors three to five decades with multiple nominations to earn that very rare honor. So why is everyone absolutely convinced that Daniel Day Lewis has this in the bag? Because he's a great actor in a great role? So was Bette Davis in All About Eve, Spencer Tracy in Guess Who's Coming To Dinner and Marlon Brando in Last Tango In Paris, but the Academy didn't give them that third Oscar for their efforts. They never gave two of the greatest actors who've ever lived, Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole, even one competitive Oscar in their legendary careers. Pre-Oscar awards, critics and public opinion are not the Academy voters. For Daniel to do this, he'll have to beat these odds: at 55, he'd be the youngest to do it, he'd be the fastest to get there in just 23 years and he'd have to do it with the least amount of nominations, just five. It took the Academy nearly 30 years to finally honor Meryl Streep (arguably the greatest living actress in the world) with her third Oscar (in part because Harvey Weinstein went out and got it for her), so why would anyone think that they're just going to hand Daniel another one especially since he won just five years age? If he's accorded this in just his mid 50's, it sets him up to catch Hepburn and maybe even pass her. My hunch is that if were going to see a three time winner this year, it's going to be DiNiro whose 40 year career has earned him such an honor (and yeah, he has Weinstein out stumping for him too). And since it's taken the Academy over eight decades to bestow this very rare honor on just four leading actors, what do you suppose the odds are that they're going to do it twice (Day Lewis, DiNiro), in just one night? Another hunch? Keep your eye on Hugh Jackman. He too gave a performance that's been universally praised and he's amoungst the most beloved by his peers in the business and don't think that doesn't count.
  
  P.S. There were a few more two time Best Actor winners than what you mentioned. There were nine: Fredrick March, Spencer Tracy, Gary Cooper, Marlon Brando, Dustin Hoffman, Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day Lewis, Tom Hanks and Sean Penn. In 84 years only nine two time Best Actor winners. Golly, it's hard to win two Best Actor trophies let alone three. Oh that's right, in 84 years, no male actor ever has.

• Jason | March 9, 2013 10:48 AM

  Well, I bet you feel pretty silly right now.

• June | February 21, 2013 1:00 AMReply

  I've always enjoyed Tommy Lee Jones' movies, with one of my favorite performances of his being in Coal Miner's Daughter. That movie came out so long ago, but his work never ceases to amaze me, which is why I'll be tuning in this Sunday to cheer him on to winning Best Supporting role in Lincoln. I may be called into my office at DISH halfway through the Oscars, but thanks to my DISH Hopper, I'll just finish the awards on the go. I can turn my Smartphone or tablet into a mobile TV and watch live TV, my recordings, and once in a lifetime awards shows like the Oscars wherever I go.

• Kenneth Duckworth | February 20, 2013 7:45 AMReply

  As a Foreign Service Officer, I thank Ben Afleck for bringing to light - of only partially - a little known bit of American diplomatic history and shining a bit of light on behalf of the work we do in service to America. However, I do not think the film should win Best Picture, and that is because in an era where very few Americans bother to learn about history, it presents a fantasy about what happened during the Iran Hostage Crisis and how our Canadian allies helped our American diplomats escape. The Canadian role is downplayed for the story of a heroic CIA officer and a bunch of Hollywood operatives who pull one over on the Iranians. The final scenes of the movie, where the diplomats escape from Tehren with the Revolutionary Guard in hot pursuit never happened. Yet, many Americans will take this film as a rendering of historical truth rather than an adventure film dressed up in historic costume. "Lincoln," on the other hand, while also taking liberties with the actual historical narrative of what happened in the fight to bring about the 13th amendment, is basically true to the overall events and paints a good picture of the work the arm twisting and legislative skullduggery that often needs to take place to accomplish great things. For those wishing to know a bit more about the Iran Hostage Crisis, I recommend Mark Bowden's "Guests of the Ayatollah." For more on Lincoln and the 13th Amendment, "The Fiery Trial."

• Jennie | February 28, 2013 7:59 PM

  Mr Duckworth, well guess what? The movie was not filmed in Iran either...get over it

• Uthinki | February 20, 2013 12:42 AMReply

  Uthinki - the social predicton game - has gone all out for the Oscars this year, posting a bunch of Oscars-themed questions. If you haven't played the game, the idea is to predict how other players will answer polls and trivia. You win if you can outsmart the crowd. Play now at uthinki.com

• tia maria | February 15, 2013 6:00 PMReply

  Think Riva will take away award for best leading actress, as BAFTA winners normally go on to win the Oscar as well

• MagicMikeToo | February 15, 2013 12:20 AMReply

  Me thinks Riva and De Niro are both on upward trajectories to victory. There's so much backstory for both. She has never been to LA before, her birthday is the day of the awards, will be oldest Best Actress winner ever. He ... oh come on, who doesn't want him to be up on stage clinching his Oscar and saying to him: "YOU TALKING TO ME?!?"

• hamid | February 14, 2013 9:09 AMReply

  best film:argo-lincoln
  best director:ang li-spilberg
  actor;day-lewis/acterss:riva

• Christopher | February 13, 2013 3:18 AMReply

  Met some old college classmates last weekend. They work in the industry. All of them has spoken to/heard of folks - especially the older ones - changing their Oscar votes in favor of Riva. They have been doing so in droves, apparently. Even more so after the BAFTAs victory.

• Anonymous | February 15, 2013 12:24 AM

  As voters ourselves, my wife and I cast our ballots for Riva. We are in our 60s if anyone is wondering.

• Tom | February 14, 2013 5:04 AM

  This is the exact rhetoric the Republicans used to explain how they were actually winning in November. They heard folks coming out to vote in droves and so on and so forth. We all remember how that went.

• Leonardo | February 11, 2013 8:06 PMReply

  Just one correction! It is not true that since The Emigrants (1973), a Best Foreign nominated movie also landed a Best Actress nomination. Whoever wrote this is forgetting the Brazilian movie Central Station (1999), which had its main star (Fernanda Montenegro) nominated for the leading actress category, alongside Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Emily Watson and Gwyneth Paltrow!
  Nice article anyway! Good insights! But let's see if Jennifer Lawrence really wins! She is the major contender, but Emmanuelle Riva has just won the BAFTA's Awards. Maybe she is a threat much more than what we imagine!

• Sansa | January 30, 2013 5:51 PMReply

  The person who tried to write this article should do some research.
  
  "Sympathy votes for Argo"?!
  
  Pray tell just how many of these awards waited for the nominations to be announced to complete their voting.

• Matt-S | January 20, 2013 5:09 PMReply

  I think a major snub performance was that of Jean-Louis Trintignant. It's way better than Denzel's one. Jean-Louis creates a character that suffers so much in the inside but doesn't let his emotions get out, even if you can see in his eyes what he truly feels. Not many people can do that. But the Academy apparently doesn't like those kind of performances (see Ryan Gosling).
  I thought it would've made sense if the Academy nominated him if Emmanuelle Riva got a nom, but one could say this also for John Hawkes (who is the major snub in that category)

• Jamie | January 18, 2013 6:58 PMReply

  I'VE SEEN ALL OF THE NOMINATED, BUT NONE OF THEM IS AS GOOD AS 'END OF WATCH' - BEST PICTURE IN MY OPINION!

• Bettingwell | January 17, 2013 3:55 AMReply

  Even the bookmakers favor of Daniel Day-Lewis for exposing him so high odds. Not even worth the effort to make bets on his winning. But you can take a chance to put into other categories. The odds look better for bet on the Best Actress.

• Erin | January 14, 2013 8:17 PMReply

  And where is The Hobbit??

• Alliegator1105 | February 25, 2013 9:29 AM

  It was in there I think 3 times. It should have won a lot of awards, but I'm not sure it did. I think it lost to Life of Pi, which doesn't really deserve them. (IMO)

• axl | January 20, 2013 9:27 AM

  It's in best makeup and production. Did you miss it? It doesn't deserve anything else.

• kori | January 10, 2013 9:37 AMReply

  It happens every year Daniel Day Lewis will win because he is playing an American President they cant upset the politics. which is a shame because Hugh Jackman was outstanding and deserves to win.

• Matt-S | January 18, 2013 6:34 AM

  You clearly haven't seen "Lincoln". Or you simply don't know what true acting is.
  Hugh Jackman is good in "Les Miserables", and even Bradley Cooper was really good in "Silver Linings Playbook", but both cannot be compared to Daniel Day-Lewis' performance. His performance is on a whole different league. His performance is the best performance of the last 5-6 years, the last great performance by an actor was for "There Will Be Blood", again from Daniel Day-Lewis.
  He will win because he's the best living actor.

• aine | January 10, 2013 10:32 AM

  i totally agree!!!
  i hope hugh wins though!

• Mehrdad | January 10, 2013 3:50 AMReply

  What about Jafar panahi's This is not a film on the category of best documentary feature...?!
  Come on... its been adored by many critics and indie critics

• holly | January 26, 2013 12:28 PM

  daniel day lewis is so overated their are so many better actors jack nicholson , robert deniro , i can go on

• Chase | January 9, 2013 6:32 PMReply

  TERRIBLE predictions! You know NOTHING about Hollywood!

• Randy | January 10, 2013 1:16 PM

  Yeah, I'm sure you would have done better.

• TJ S | January 9, 2013 5:07 PMReply

  Awful awful AWFUL predictions. Skyfall for Best Picture??? And only 8 noms for BP total? And no DiCaprio nom for Django. You are in for a rude awakening tomorrow morning.

• M | January 8, 2013 7:54 AMReply

  I am surprised there is nothing from Stephen Chbosky's magnificent ' The Perks Of Being A Wallflower'? I know it's a long run for it to win anything but I would so love for it to at least get nomination or a consideration.

• Sam | January 7, 2013 3:12 PMReply

  To me, Jenniffer Lawrence was miscast in Silver Linings, and Maggie Smith plays all her characters the same way whether Harry Potter, Downton Abbey or The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. She is just the same.

• nicole | February 16, 2013 2:23 PM

  what are you talking about? I'm sorry that you have no taste in movie she is will win the oscar. if riva wins well congrats to her, but Lawrence is most likely to win bafta or not. she was outstanding in SLP she wouldn't be nominated if she wasn't. so build a bridge now get over it im sorry that im not sorry

• nicole | February 16, 2013 2:20 PM

  what are you talking about? I'm sorry that you have no taste in movie she is will win the oscar. if riva wins well congrats to her, but Lawrence is most likely to win bafta or not. she was outstanding in SLP she wouldn't be nominated if she wasn't. so build a bridge now get over it im sorry that im not sorry

• mj | February 14, 2013 4:10 PM

  I agree, Jennifer Lawrence's performance was very lightweight; there really wasn't much going on if you look closely. And I don't think it has anything to do with her age. Wallis blew me away. Cottilard should have been nominated; she really conveyed a depth of character in such subtle nuances, she is incredible, such a shame. I think Riva gave the best performance. I hope she wins. Sometimes the Academy gets it right.

• will | January 10, 2013 2:29 AM

  Jennifer Lawrence brought nothing to the table with her forgettable performance-just a window dressing and lightweight performance. Jennifer's youthfulness hurt her performance even more. I just don't understand the big fuss around her.

• Kelly | January 5, 2013 11:12 PMReply

  I just saw Django last night. It was over-the-top violent, of course. But, the storyline is incredible and Christoph Waltz is pure genius. And I don't understand why Jamie Foxx is getting no recognition for this. Just because he's black doesn't mean he should be able to pull off the slave role easily. He's phenomenal, as is DiCaprio.

• Adrian | February 8, 2013 11:46 AM

  I totally agree with you!! Specially with Waltz, he was so freaking amazing, i honestly think he should win the Oscar too as he did with the Golden Globe :)

• Paul | January 4, 2013 8:47 PMReply

  The fact that Les Miserables is getting so much Oscar buzz seriously sets me off. Next to The Hobbit, it was seriously the most disappointing film of the year. Hands down.

• Alfredo | January 30, 2013 2:58 PM

  Agreed. I thought the movie was total Oscar bait.

• Chris L. | January 4, 2013 5:06 PMReply

  Voters have a chance to make a powerful statement on Jafar Panahi's behalf, whether his movie is a traditional documentary or not. It would help redeem many of their other choices (for foreign film, etc.)

• Chris L. | January 4, 2013 11:05 PM

  Also, Weisz did receive Golden Globe nomination, contrary to what this article states. The actress field isn't weak if one wants to dig a little deeper: Nina Hoss, Cecile de France, Melanie Lynskey, Linda Cardellini, Hani Furstenburg...even last year's nominee Michelle Williams was far more impressive in "Take This Waltz."

• steve handley | January 4, 2013 10:24 AMReply

  Short live action movies - where's Dave Roddham's epic COWARD?

• LOUISA WEISZ | January 2, 2013 1:39 PMReply

  God, this is the dumbest list i've read so far, i'm blown away by how biased and ignorant those choices are

• Kurtiss L. Robinson | January 2, 2013 12:29 PMReply

  I thought Denzel Washington was astounding in Flight. I also enjoyed the film even though it was not a feel good experience. I think Daniel Day Lewis is amazing. Ever since My Beautiful Laudrette he has proved again and again what talent really is.

• Rod | December 31, 2012 11:58 PMReply

  I really love to see more love for The Impossible,it is really a sincere,strong and beautiful movie,the story,the direction,the almost real special effects and the memorable performaces of all the cast. Im really hauting about the power of Naomi Watts performace,she is really marvelous,she gave this year best female performace, you have to see to believe. WONDERFUL.

• David | December 31, 2012 1:36 PMReply

  I don't think Jackman will get in. Phoenix will take his spot.

• Kelly Garrett | December 31, 2012 12:33 PMReply

  Anne, something to consider: Emmanuelle Riva is the only French actress in contention. After roles in American blockbusters like Batman and Inception, and smaller, but beloved films like Midnight in Paris, Marion Cotillard is a great Hollywood actress.

• Dillon | December 31, 2012 4:03 AMReply

  What about Struck by Lightning? Chris Colfer for best original screenplay.

• Joe | December 30, 2012 1:47 PMReply

  Matthew McConaughey even being considered with not a single mention of Javier Bardem in Skyfall?

• Katy | December 29, 2012 9:09 PMReply

  The Perks of Being a Wallflower for best adapted screenplay nomination easily..

• Teija | December 29, 2012 10:12 AMReply

  I didnt like the hobbit movie that much, but I think Richard Armitage was just perfect in that one. He is a fantastic actor, a real star, atleast he should be nominated for best supporting actor. Maybe he is not that well known but im so tired of people like PS Hoffman and R de Niro. Its always the same people.

• Eric | December 20, 2012 6:55 PMReply

  I'm sorry but these predictions are ridiculous!
  Where's THE MASTER?? Where's BLOOD OF MY BLOOD??
  
  Non sense!

• Nan | December 16, 2012 11:06 PMReply

  Micheal Fassbender was amazing in Prometheus.

• Teddy Wyman | December 16, 2012 5:42 PMReply

  As an avid Lord of the Rings fan, I'm really disappointed to find that The Hobbit will probably not get nominated for Best Picture. After seeing Argo, Lincoln, and The Hobbit, I can say that The Hobbit probably does not deserve the nomination. Still, it would've been nice, as I found it just as enchanting as LOTR. Maybe one of the next two will get nominated.

• Anne Thompson | December 15, 2012 5:45 PMReply

  Emmanuelle Riva or Rachel Weisz could still turn up...and I doubt Helen Mirren makes it.
  
  Moonrise Kingdom is seen as hugely successful indie flick. It will show up at Oscars, probably in original screenplay and possibly even as best picture nominee.

• Juha Hovilainen | December 14, 2012 7:42 AMReply

  Where is Emmanuelle Riva...No Golden Globe nor SAG award nomination...
  Is her chance for Oscar nomination over...Helen Mirren over Emmanuelle Riva...Seriously?
  Happy that Nicole Kidman is still in the race.

• Liselotte | December 14, 2012 5:20 AMReply

  The best movie I've seen for a looooong time is End of Watch. The performances are extraordinary.

• Jonathan | December 10, 2012 8:17 PMReply

  Why isn't "Moonrise Kingdom" perceived as a box office success like "Midnight in Paris" was last year? The first one grossed $45 million at the domestic box office on a $16 million budget and the latter grossed $56 on a $17 million budget and a couple of re-releases that "Moonrise Kindgom" didn't have and would've definitely pull it ahead. Also people are again not paying attention at the fact that a movie only need 5% of passionate voters to put it at number 1 to get the nod, which I think is definitely possible for a movie like this. After the film gets the Golden Globe Best Comedy/Musical, BFCA Best Film Nomination and the PGA nomination maybe people will finally predict it.

• Rosie | December 10, 2012 11:40 AMReply

  ["As always, no film becomes a "frontrunner" on this chart until I have seen it. "]
  
  
  Why are you the last word on who is a front runner for an Oscar nomination? And why is Sally Field being considered for a Best Supporting Actress nod?

• CL | December 13, 2012 4:43 PM

  My sentiments exactly, on both counts. On the other hand, I'm loving the Weisz-mentum!

• Gemini71 | December 8, 2012 5:19 AMReply

  I am disappointed not to see Melanie Lynskey in the list of Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress. She has thirty-seven film credits on her IMDB page: surely that makes her deserving of some recognition by the Academy of Motion Pictures' Arts & Sciences. Lynskey is long overdue for a chance to reach leading lady status. Todd Louiso stuck to his guns, and cast her as the main character in 'Hello I Must Be Going', and I think that the AMPAS should recognise her ability to carry a film as the leading lady.

• Jeremy | December 8, 2012 3:24 AMReply

  Here is my list Best Animated Nominees Guaranteed
  Brave
  Wreck it Ralph
  Frakenweenie
  Rise of the Guardians
  Madagascar 3
  
  Visuals
  Life of Pi
  Hobbit
  Dark Knight Rises
  Marvels Avengers
  Prometheus
  
  Dark Knight will win all the Technical Awards
  (sound editing Sound Mixing) (Dark Knight did win both catagories in 2008)

• Michael B. | December 7, 2012 11:27 PMReply

  I'd cast a big vote for Tom Hardy as "Bain" in "The Dark Knight Rises".

• susy26 | January 11, 2013 1:21 AM

  learn to spell..it's 'Bane'...and no that isn't an Oscar worthy performance..Hardy in 'Bronson' was an Oscar worthy performance

• Ian | December 7, 2012 1:44 AMReply

  The Perks of Being a Wallflower isn't even a contender for Best Adapted Screenplay? For shame.

• Dylan Moran | December 4, 2012 2:05 PMReply

  Wow, you really must have not liked the master, totally got snubbed on this list.

• Dan | December 4, 2012 12:34 PMReply

  If Joaquin Phoenix is not nominated, I just cannot take the oscars seriously anymore.

• david | December 4, 2012 1:28 PM

  If he isnt nominated I might explode haha but seriously the performances in the master were great. I hope all 3 leads are nominated also I really hope (even though I know it might not happen) PTA gets writing and directing noms. the only unbelievable one in super vented bout is cinematography. people may not enjoy the film but the cinematography is too good to not be nominated over argo or skyfall (even though I love roger deakins).

• beth | December 4, 2012 12:31 PMReply

  Haha Thompson is still pushing KStew so hard. Too bad only twihards are buying it. All for the hits!

• G. | December 3, 2012 5:27 PMReply

  Anne, I love you but you keep pushing Bradley Cooper as the major frontrunner in both your posts and OscarTalk. While I enjoyed the film, Mr. Cooper may suffer from the same syndrome that touched Mr. Fassbender last year in shame: Too Much Going for Him. He is incredibly good-looking, People's Sexiest Man Alive, now a major player in Hollywood, and dating the hottest women in the world. I believe the thinking goes, this guy has too much going for him, that last thing he needs is an Oscar Nomination.
  
  Last year, Mr. Fassbender looked like a slam dunk, but then was altogether missing in action from the Best Actor category. I think it may happen here too in that while Mr. Cooper is really coming into his own, it's not the earth shattering performances that others are demonstrating this year. Couldn't the category end up being: Day Lewis, Hawkes, Jackman, Washington, and then either Pheonix, Cooper, or the French guy rounding out the category? Just an observation.
  
  Keep doing what you're doing Anne!

• John | December 4, 2012 11:54 AM

  Two totally different situations. Fassbender starred in a cold, NC-17, art-house film without any Academy support. Cooper's work comes in a crowd-pleasing rom-com that's a likely Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor nominee. Maybe even Director. You're right that it isn't an earth-shattering performance, but he's the star of a beloved film. Sometimes that's all you need.

• xD | December 1, 2012 8:26 PMReply

  the actress field is not at all weak ! Its you who perceived it as such.

• xD | December 1, 2012 8:25 PMReply

  the actress field is not at all weak ! Its you who perceived it as such.

• Zane | November 30, 2012 11:57 PMReply

  The Dark Knight Rises should be at the top for cinemaatograhy

• stu freeman | November 30, 2012 4:24 PMReply

  Waddyamean "Django" is "the last one out of the gate"? Where's Gus Van Sant's "Promised Land" which is due out 12/28 (and, albeit less likely, Dustin Hoffman's "Quartet" which is due out the same day)? Is the BUZZ on these films not loud enough for you? Personally, I believe that most any movie made by van Sant is worth at least two of Tarantino's, with or without Harvey's "push" behind it. Assuming that you haven't yet seen this film, please don't dismiss its prospects by not citing it as a preemptive contender. It wasn't that long ago since van Sant's "Milk" scored at the Oscars after all.
  Regards,
  Stu Freeman
  Brooklyn NY

• Anne Thompson | November 29, 2012 3:27 PMReply

  I updated Visual Effects to include the entire shortlist of ten. "The Hobbit" is now on there.

• Anne Thompson | November 29, 2012 3:26 PMReply

  I added "Bully," thanks.

• KGKGKG | November 29, 2012 3:15 PMReply

  Under documentaries: Surprised that "Bully" isn't listed.

• chris | November 26, 2012 11:05 PMReply

  ANNE - why is the Hobbit not included in your Best Visual Effects field.. The Hobbit video blog recently reminded us that LOTR always win VFX awards last decade.