We're in the thick of the Oscar race now. In this week's Oscar Talk podcast, In Contention's Kris Tapley and Guy Lodge and I discuss the real contest between Annette Bening and Natalie Portman, whether Melissa Leo's glam ads are opening up the field in supporting actress, and how the Nominees Lunch and the upcoming BAFTAs on Sunday give us a sense of where the races are tipping.