Let Me In's Richard Jenkins is another case: one of the best and most "heartbreaking" performances of the year, says Thompson. While Tapley didn't like the film at all, he agrees that Jenkins was great, as always. Struggling at the box office, Never Let Me Go might have earned Andrew Garfield and Carey Mulligan Oscar nods, but they likely won't get them. Tapley notes his favorite of Garfield's performances: the first installment of the Red Riding trilogy. However, Thompson believes his first Oscar nomination could come from his Social Network performance.
Buzz has also been swarming about a possible nomination for Michael Douglas in Solitary Man (best actor) or Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps. Tapley and Thompson agree that this falls into the same no-chance-in-hell category. Neither film did well or is getting enough positive attentive to propel into the race. Were Douglas not fighting throat cancer, he probably wouldn't be mentioned at all for awards consideration, and both find the chatter morbid: he's fighting cancer, looks terrible from the chemo, and may get people's sympathy. But sympathy voting aside, with Solitary Man, Douglas (Tapley thinks he nailed it) is still playing an unlikeable character in a nearly forgotten film. To earn a nomination for Wall Street 2 he'd have to outperform his own performance in the original, which he did not (though they agree it was no fault of his, rather the script, timing and reception of the film). While Douglas is well-liked, they agreed that talking about awards consideration seems opportunistic.
In the Best Animated Feature race, they considered How to Train Your Dragon, which Paramount wants to push for best picture. Thompson and Tapley both attended the film's party last week and spoke with producer Bonnie Arnold who credits the film's directors with making it such a huge success, as they convinced DreamWorks' Katzenberg to go ahead with the unconventional project. Dragon will likely join Toy Story 3 but the third slot is unknown. (So far there aren't enough submissions,16, for five slots--November 1 is the deadline). It could go to The Illusionist, thinks Tapley, or even Despicable Me, thinks Thompson, who found The Illusionist stunning but too quiet and refined, while Tapley found Despicable Me Nickelodeon-esque, and mentioned that while he enjoyed the Disney fairy tale Tangled he had a sense of been-there-done-that. And when it comes to animated films, both agreed that it's difficult to get the Academy to consider actors' voice performances and the artistry that goes into creating these characters. Thompson thinks the Academy should have a voice category, since those actors will never be considered along with live-action contenders.
Alice in Wonderland's producers are pushing it for best picture consideration on the grounds that it made over a billion dollars. Thompson, however, hated the 3-D (though she loves Tim Burton's aesthetic) and thinks it did so well because it came out at the beginning of the Avatar-induced 3-D hype. Neither think it will get serious consideration outside technical categories such as costume, art direction, cinematography, etc.
Fair Game, which Thompson noted has been overhauled since she first saw it in Cannes, also has great performances, both agreed. Tapley found Sean Penn to be the strongest link. Thompson agreed that both Penn and Naomi Watts were excellent in their portrayal of a working marriage within a horrifying portrait of Washington politics gone wrong. She also thought that director Doug Liman did a great job: he's idiosyncratic, smart and articulate yet boyish and in touch with his imagination. With Fair Game, he channels his upbringing and his father, Beltway player Arthur Liman---and it serves him well. Both agreed it was a wild card for Oscar - and that it's going more for a commercial run than performance awards. Tapley feels similarly about Fair Game as he does about The Town; good commercial movies that he'll watch again but doesn't consider serious awards contenders. Thompson called Fair Game a real world take on Mr. and Mrs. Smith.
Addressing reader questions, Tapley and Thompson tackled the chances of a director landing a nomination for a film that doesn't make the cut for best picture. Both agreed that with this being only the second year the Academy has honored ten films, there is no precedence to go on. Tapley pointed out that David Lynch was nominated for Best Director in 2002 but Mulholland Drive did not get a Best Picture nod. Thompson pointed out that with 366 voting in the director's category, it's a relatively small club (compared to more than 1200 in the actors category). It takes a known and respected director to break in with a lone nomination. Mike Leigh, for example, has a chance for Another Year, both agreed. Darren Aronofsky also has a chance at a nomination for Black Swan, even though the film itself may be too intense for the Academy, thinks Thompson. Both agreed that if 127 Hours fails to get a Best Picture nomination, Danny Boyle will very likely still get a Best Director nom. Tapley believes that a lone director nom would have to be for a foreign director, such as Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu for unlikely Best Picture contender Biutiful (both he and Babel were nominated in 2007).
Two contenders coming from recent winners are late entries for Oscar consideration: True Grit from the Coens who won both Best Director and Picture in 2008 with No Country for Old Men and 127 Hours from Boyle who won the same in 2009 with Slumdog Millionaire. They will have to outdo themselves to attract similar recognition. Tapley says that the issue is less "but they just won" and more about whether a film falls into a common follow-up slump. (The Coens' A Serious Man made it into the top ten last year.) Thompson thinks True Grit's western-genre status won't help its box office performance but may not be an issue with the older Academy, while 127 Hours simply lacks the joy that Slumdog won with and may play "very young." And while The Social Network is destined to fade, it could make a comeback: Thompson expects an "up and down trajectory." Both agreed that The King's Speech is still poised for front-runner status.
Both wondered if Roman Polanski's The Ghost Writer has a chance at resurfacing, and if so, in which category? Thompson puts it into the same category as The Town - too much a genre film for the Academy's highbrow taste--even with Ewan McGregor in top form and Pierce Brosnan's supporting role "juicy and wonderful." The film, she says is "formally beautiful," and "really tight" but doesn't rise to the level of high art. Tapley thinks its chances are best for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination.
As for how the Oscar top ten may evolve, Tapley thinks it comes down to what is on offer each year more than a particular thought-process behind nominations. Thompson doesn't think the Academy will ever favor talking head documentaries or animated films, but with seasons of stunning and abundant independent offerings, anything is possible. Last year's winner for Best Picture, The Hurt Locker, for example, had a decent indie box office performance but never did compete with the larger money makers. The top ten will likely always embrace the bigger films, such as last year's nominees The Blind Side and District 9.
Neither have seen
Tapley just finished a Weir-A-Thon, and concludes that his top three films from the director are:
1. Fearless - which Tapley admits, with its amazing opening and closing scenes, "emotionally reduces me to a baby."
2. The Truman Show - great concept and script
3. A tie between Master and Commander ("Crowe at his best") and Witness ("a perfectly structured film").