It means less for Avatar to have won best drama and director at the Golden Globes than to have lost best film at the Producers Guild and best director at the Directors Guild, both times to The Hurt Locker. And it means less for Inglourious Basterds to have won best ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild than to have lost at the PGA and DGA. See where I am going? Kathryn Bigelow's DGA win Saturday night (the first to a woman in 61 years) is a sign of continued strength for that film, which could well repeat at the Oscars. (BTW, Bigelow, 58, does not look older than her ex-husband, Cameron, 55).
Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, though: the real reading of tea leaves and temperature-taking takes place Tuesday morning. How many nominations will each of these films get? I predict as many as nine for Avatar, though it could be less. And although I gave up my seat at the DGAs last night to nurse a cold (a potion of powerful Chinese tea put me out for 12 hours), I'll be at the Oscar nominations bright and early February 2 to pick up my info packet. That's the important stuff. I won't be taking reaction calls. I will be analyzing what it all means.