Post-Golden Globe Nominations: What Do We Know? Weinsteins Score 15, But Will That Translate at Oscars? Kidman Lands 10th Globe Nom

by Anne Thompson
December 13, 2012 2:39 PM
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Daniel Day-Lewis and John Hawkes are also Oscar locks, while Denzel Washington is a likely nominee and "The Master" star Joaquin Phoenix, who was left out by SAG, is vulnerable, along with non-SAG nominee Richard Gere ("Arbitrage"). Comedy/musical nominees Bradley Cooper ("Silver Linings") and Hugh Jackman ("Les Mis") will likely take two Oscar slots. 

On the comedy or musical side, "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" star Emily Blunt is unlikely to turn up on the Oscar list, while Oscar perennial Judi Dench makes her first critics group appearance for "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel." I wouldn't be surprised if Dench and her co-star Maggie Smith don't wind up supporting actress Oscar nominees for "Skyfall" and "Exotic," respectively. Smith is named her for role in the well-liked "Quartet," which is unlikely to turn up on the Oscar list, along with last year's Oscar-winner Meryl Streep for "Hope Springs."

Among the men, Jack Black ("Bernie"), Ewan McGregor ("Salmon Fishing in the Yemen") and Bill Murray ("Hyde Park on Hudson") are unlikely to compete in the Oscar race. McGregor might have had an outside shot at supporting for "The Impossible," but it's a crowded category and no one has named him so far.

The supporting categories only list five nominees. Of the actresses, Sally Field ("Lincoln"), Anne Hathaway ("Les Miserables') and Helen Hunt ("The Sessions") will advance to the Oscars, while SAG-snubbed Amy Adams ("The Master") and Kidman "Paperboy" get a strong boost into contention. SAG went with Maggie Smith for "Exotic."

Of the actors, the two "Django" nominees, DiCaprio and Waltz, replace SAG's De Niro and Javier Bardem ("Skyfall"), who could both be in the running for an Oscar slot. "Argo"'s only actor Oscar contender remains Alan Arkin, and Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master") and Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln") are also robust Oscar competitors. 

The Globes only nominate five writing nominees while the Oscars, with both adapted and original categories, have ten. So it's safe to assume that all five of the Globe writing nominees, Tarantino, Russell, Mark Boal ("Zero Dark Thirty'), Tony Kushner ("Lincoln") and Chris Terrio ("Argo") will land Oscar slots.

In the foreign race, the HFPA selected four Oscar frontrunners, Magnolia's A Royal Affair" plus two from the Weinsteins, "The Inouchables" and "Kon-Tiki," and Sony Pictures Classics' Austrian submission "Amour"; they are also handling the last nominee starring Cotillard, "Rust and Bone."

On the animated feature side, it is unlikely that "Hotel Transylvania" will join "Brave," "Frankenweenie," "Rise of the Guardians" and "Wreck-It-Ralph" in the final Oscar five.

And prolific composer Alexandre Desplat has for the first time in Globes history scored five of the nominated films, as well as landing his own nomination for "Argo." The others are “Moonrise Kingdom,” “Zero Dark Thirty,“ “Rise of the Guardians," and "Rust and Bone."

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  • Josh | December 13, 2012 8:16 PMReply

    I would like to make a correction. Nicole Kidman's 8th Golden Globe nom was for Rabbit Hole. Her 9th and 10th nods were for Hemingway & Gellhorn and The Paperboy. Hence a total of 10 nominations.

  • The Great Dane | December 13, 2012 7:11 PMReply

    I was just comparing the Oscar/Globe best director categories, and it seems to appear that the last time the Globes nominated the five directors (and only five) that went on to become the five Oscar nominees, was 35 years ago (and they have now existed for 70 years, so it's their complete last half of their lifespan). It's simply the one category that the Globes can't completely mirror. So people thinking the five Globe nominees are looking the likeliest Oscar nominees, would historically be making a big mistake. I agree with you that Tarantino looks the most vulnerable, and his competition is Hooper and O'Russell. But the release of Django and Les Miz and Django will be the final word on the matter. If both films go through the roof, Lee should be scared as well. Haneke and Anderson are out of the race. It's a seven-way competition now, but Spielberg, Affleck and Bigelow are locks. Any two of Lee, Tarantino, Hooper and O'Russel could end up taking the last two spots. It all depends on the final reviews and public poularity of Django and Les Miz.

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