By Anne Thompson | Thompson on Hollywood December 13, 2012 at 2:39PM
Daniel Day-Lewis and John Hawkes are also Oscar locks, while Denzel Washington is a likely nominee and "The Master" star Joaquin Phoenix, who was left out by SAG, is vulnerable, along with non-SAG nominee Richard Gere ("Arbitrage"). Comedy/musical nominees Bradley Cooper ("Silver Linings") and Hugh Jackman ("Les Mis") will likely take two Oscar slots.
On the comedy or musical side, "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" star Emily Blunt is unlikely to turn up on the Oscar list, while Oscar perennial Judi Dench makes her first critics group appearance for "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel." I wouldn't be surprised if Dench and her co-star Maggie Smith don't wind up supporting actress Oscar nominees for "Skyfall" and "Exotic," respectively. Smith is named her for role in the well-liked "Quartet," which is unlikely to turn up on the Oscar list, along with last year's Oscar-winner Meryl Streep for "Hope Springs."
Among the men, Jack Black ("Bernie"), Ewan McGregor ("Salmon Fishing in the Yemen") and Bill Murray ("Hyde Park on Hudson") are unlikely to compete in the Oscar race. McGregor might have had an outside shot at supporting for "The Impossible," but it's a crowded category and no one has named him so far.
The supporting categories only list five nominees. Of the actresses, Sally Field ("Lincoln"), Anne Hathaway ("Les Miserables') and Helen Hunt ("The Sessions") will advance to the Oscars, while SAG-snubbed Amy Adams ("The Master") and Kidman "Paperboy" get a strong boost into contention. SAG went with Maggie Smith for "Exotic."
Of the actors, the two "Django" nominees, DiCaprio and Waltz, replace SAG's De Niro and Javier Bardem ("Skyfall"), who could both be in the running for an Oscar slot. "Argo"'s only actor Oscar contender remains Alan Arkin, and Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master") and Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln") are also robust Oscar competitors.
The Globes only nominate five writing nominees while the Oscars, with both adapted and original categories, have ten. So it's safe to assume that all five of the Globe writing nominees, Tarantino, Russell, Mark Boal ("Zero Dark Thirty'), Tony Kushner ("Lincoln") and Chris Terrio ("Argo") will land Oscar slots.
In the foreign race, the HFPA selected four Oscar frontrunners, Magnolia's A Royal Affair" plus two from the Weinsteins, "The Inouchables" and "Kon-Tiki," and Sony Pictures Classics' Austrian submission "Amour"; they are also handling the last nominee starring Cotillard, "Rust and Bone."
On the animated feature side, it is unlikely that "Hotel Transylvania" will join "Brave," "Frankenweenie," "Rise of the Guardians" and "Wreck-It-Ralph" in the final Oscar five.
And prolific composer Alexandre Desplat has for the first time in Globes history scored five of the nominated films, as well as landing his own nomination for "Argo." The others are “Moonrise Kingdom,” “Zero Dark Thirty,“ “Rise of the Guardians," and "Rust and Bone."