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Post-Golden Globe Nominations: What Do We Know? Weinsteins Score 15, But Will That Translate at Oscars? Kidman Lands 10th Globe Nom

Photo of Anne Thompson By Anne Thompson | Thompson on Hollywood December 13, 2012 at 2:39PM

Advantage: Leonardo DiCaprio over "Django Unchained" costar Christoph Waltz in the best supporting actor race, even if Waltz gets the German vote. And SAG "Silver Linings" nominee Robert De Niro, who dissed the HFPA last time he accepted an award, has not been invited back. On the other hand, Globe fave Nicole Kidman scored two 2013 nominations, for both "Paperboy" and HBO's "Hemingway and Gellhorn." While she has three Oscar nominations and one win thus far, the HFPA has nominated her eight times.

Daniel Day-Lewis and John Hawkes are also Oscar locks, while Denzel Washington is a likely nominee and "The Master" star Joaquin Phoenix, who was left out by SAG, is vulnerable, along with non-SAG nominee Richard Gere ("Arbitrage"). Comedy/musical nominees Bradley Cooper ("Silver Linings") and Hugh Jackman ("Les Mis") will likely take two Oscar slots. 

On the comedy or musical side, "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" star Emily Blunt is unlikely to turn up on the Oscar list, while Oscar perennial Judi Dench makes her first critics group appearance for "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel." I wouldn't be surprised if Dench and her co-star Maggie Smith don't wind up supporting actress Oscar nominees for "Skyfall" and "Exotic," respectively. Smith is named her for role in the well-liked "Quartet," which is unlikely to turn up on the Oscar list, along with last year's Oscar-winner Meryl Streep for "Hope Springs."

Among the men, Jack Black ("Bernie"), Ewan McGregor ("Salmon Fishing in the Yemen") and Bill Murray ("Hyde Park on Hudson") are unlikely to compete in the Oscar race. McGregor might have had an outside shot at supporting for "The Impossible," but it's a crowded category and no one has named him so far.

The supporting categories only list five nominees. Of the actresses, Sally Field ("Lincoln"), Anne Hathaway ("Les Miserables') and Helen Hunt ("The Sessions") will advance to the Oscars, while SAG-snubbed Amy Adams ("The Master") and Kidman "Paperboy" get a strong boost into contention. SAG went with Maggie Smith for "Exotic."

Of the actors, the two "Django" nominees, DiCaprio and Waltz, replace SAG's De Niro and Javier Bardem ("Skyfall"), who could both be in the running for an Oscar slot. "Argo"'s only actor Oscar contender remains Alan Arkin, and Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master") and Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln") are also robust Oscar competitors. 

The Globes only nominate five writing nominees while the Oscars, with both adapted and original categories, have ten. So it's safe to assume that all five of the Globe writing nominees, Tarantino, Russell, Mark Boal ("Zero Dark Thirty'), Tony Kushner ("Lincoln") and Chris Terrio ("Argo") will land Oscar slots.

In the foreign race, the HFPA selected four Oscar frontrunners, Magnolia's A Royal Affair" plus two from the Weinsteins, "The Inouchables" and "Kon-Tiki," and Sony Pictures Classics' Austrian submission "Amour"; they are also handling the last nominee starring Cotillard, "Rust and Bone."

On the animated feature side, it is unlikely that "Hotel Transylvania" will join "Brave," "Frankenweenie," "Rise of the Guardians" and "Wreck-It-Ralph" in the final Oscar five.

And prolific composer Alexandre Desplat has for the first time in Globes history scored five of the nominated films, as well as landing his own nomination for "Argo." The others are “Moonrise Kingdom,” “Zero Dark Thirty,“ “Rise of the Guardians," and "Rust and Bone."

This article is related to: Awards, Awards, Oscars, Golden Globes, Nicole Kidman, Nicole Kidman, Django Unchained, Harvey Weinstein, The Weinstein Co., Quentin Tarantino, David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

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Born and raised in Manhattan, Anne Thompson grew up going to the Thalia and The New Yorker and wound up at grad Cinema Studies at NYU. She worked at United Artists and Film Comment before heading west as that magazine's west coast editor. She wrote for the LA Weekly, Sight and Sound, Empire, The New York Times and Entertainment Weekly before serving as West Coast Editor of Premiere. She wrote for The Washington Post, The London Observer, Wired, More, and Vanity Fair, and did staff stints at The Hollywood Reporter and Variety. She eventually took her blog Thompson on Hollywood to Indiewire. She taught film criticism at USC Critical Studies, and continues to host the fall semester of “Sneak Previews” for UCLA Extension.