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Ranking the Top 15 Best Picture Oscar Contenders Before the Fall Festivals

by Anne Thompson
August 23, 2013 3:25 PM
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DreamWorks/Disney 'The Fifth Estate'

15. All Is Lost (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). J.C. Chandor, who earned an Oscar nomination for his script for "Margin Call," directs Robert Redford in a solo performance in a boat on the high seas. Based on the raves from Cannes I am betting this is a soft lob down the middle for the Academy. (Six votes.)

Continuing down the list with six votes each, I included Ben Stiller's The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) which has all the earmarks of an Oscar contender based on what I saw at CinemaCon. I did not go with Spike Jonze's Her (Warner Bros./Annapurna) which won our impromptu poll at Indiewire's awards lunch this week as the film the most people said they wanted to see among the fall selection (that they weren't working on). I will check it out!

It's surprising that two films from Sony Pictures Classics, Woody Allen's 44th film, Blue Jasmine, and Richard Linklater's Before Midnight, aren't higher up. Many believe that Jasmine will mainly be a Cate Blanchett play (my interview with her here). But actors, writers, directors and others could support it. And by the time the film critics weigh in on "Before Midnight" at year's end and Academy members screen it, the brilliantly relationship comedy should have a higher profile. Linklater and his writer-actors Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy earned a writing nomination for the second film in the trilogy, "Before Sunset."

Chandor and Redford of 'All Is Lost' at Cannes

Bill Condon's biopic The Fifth Estate (DreamWorks/Disney) only mustered five votes, either because of some poor advance buzz or no one is interested in WikiLeaks' Julian Assange. Condon has a strong track record, having written Oscar-winner "Chicago" (by far director Rob Marshall's best outing to date) and written and directed Oscar-nominated "Gods and Monsters," noble failure "Kinsey" (which I loved) and Oscar-winner "Dreamgirls." Are the Gurus docking him for directing the last two "Twilight" pictures? Please, that boosts Condon's commercial cred in the long run. "Perhaps because I gobbled up Alex Gibney's "We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks" or I believe that Benedict Cumberbatch and Daniel Brühl can do no wrong, I included this one on my top 15. 

Ranked quite low on the list are two potential contenders that I too need to see: "Mandela: The Long Walk Home" starring Idris Elba (TWC) and Fox's "The Book Thief," adapted from the bestselling World War II novel and starring Geoffrey Rush and Emily Watson, which the studio is planning to push hard, especially French Canadian lead actress Sophie Nélisse (Oscar nominee "Monsieur Lazhar"). 

Indeed, distributors are already meeting with various Oscar campaigners, handlers and trade sites as everyone figures out their long term awards strategy. We know which films are going to fall festivals and which ones are skipping them, either because they don't want to play their hand too early or they aren't ready. Unusually, Cannes entries "Nebraska," "All is Lost" and "Inside Llewyn Davis" are playing Telluride and skipping Toronto on their way to New York. Word is, all three films feature press-shy players who'd rather hang relatively low in Telluride and New York than brave the press gauntlet in Toronto. Who can blame them? These days the Oscar circuit stretches very long. And the noise in Toronto is deafening. 


  • cadavra | August 25, 2013 7:00 PMReply

    Why would MONUMENTS MEN's commerciality be a factor? If it's a good movie and deserves a BP nomination, then nothing else--especially intent--should matter.

  • Steven Kaye | August 25, 2013 1:07 AMReply

    Extraordinary that Blue Jasmine isn't on the list. Do these "experts" actually get paid for this?

  • Mirko | August 24, 2013 3:30 PMReply

    Thanks to Saving Mr Banks the people can to remind the talent of Emma Thompson. It's just moment for an new nomination; I remember her Oscar for Howards End, her double nomination in 1994 for The Remains of the Day and In the Name of the Fathe, her bouble nomination in 1996, actress and writer screenplay, for Sense & Sensibility. She is nurse maid Nanny McPhee. Her role P. L. Travers, author of Mary Poppins, is an beautiful coincedence. I believe that Mary poppins and Emma Thompson are again at ceremony of Academy Awards.

  • Tania | August 25, 2013 2:04 PM

    But Marion Cotillard in The Immigrant is so much better than Emma Thompson, It's a shame that Anne Thompson doesn't see it.

  • Russ | August 23, 2013 9:38 PMReply

    I don't think you can count out "20 Feet from Stardom."

  • lola | August 23, 2013 8:17 PMReply

    The Counselor will be huge

  • Anne Thompson | August 23, 2013 6:05 PMReply

    Yup. It was a dramatic passing over that year. (When there were still five nominees.) It earned eight nominations and won two. including Jennifer Hudson.

  • Chris L. | August 23, 2013 5:16 PMReply

    "Dreamgirls" was not nominated for Best Picture. As I recall, it was considered a shocking snub that morning. They went with "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters from Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," and "The Queen." (Only the Eastwood seems worth revisiting at this point IMHO.)

  • ag | August 23, 2013 4:16 PMReply

    it's looking like monuments men will skew commercial

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