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Studio Weekend Box Office: 'The Dark Knight Rises' Wins the Gold Vs. New Competition UPDATED TOP TEN ANALYSIS

Box Office
by Tom Brueggemann
August 5, 2012 12:43 PM
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Prospects: The significant change comes from the spring break release date of the first two to a (late) summer date for this -- a double risk both because of Olympics competition and because many school kids start heading back to school soon, depleting the potential audience in later weeks. Still, with the likely uptick for Saturday and Sunday this should still head to a reasonable weekend gross. Vacation weekday grosses should run closer to the previous films, but this installment should still fall short of their $52-62 million totals.

4. ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT (20th Century-Fox) - Week 4 (last weekend - #4)

$8,400,000 in 3,542 theaters (-327); Change from last weekend: -36% ; PSA: $2,372, Cumulative: $131,862,859

Prospects: Holding its position this weekend (ahead of last week's two new films (both of which fell off more) and adding to its already impressive gross. The "Ice Age" series looks like it has become a perennial with a long way to go before interest runs out.

5. THE WATCH (20th Century-Fox) - Week 2 (last weekend #3)

$6,350,000 in 3,168 theaters (unchanged); Change from last weekend: -50%; PSA: $2,004; Cumulative: $25,363,203

Prospects: After a steep 61% fall on Friday, this rebounded somewhat last night, indicating a bit of life left going forward. Still, this could have only one top 10 week left.

Prospects: A major drop confirms that this all-star aliens-in-the-suburbs comedy won't be in theaters too much longer.

6. STEP UP REVOLUTION (Lionsgate) - Week 2; (last weekend- #2)

$5,300,000 in 2,606 theaters (+39); Change from last weekend: -55% PSA: $2,034; Cumulative: $23,097,149

Prospects: Falling steeply in its second weekend (about as much as “Step Up 3D” did two years back, this has no shot of equaling the last installment's $42-million domestic total.

7. TED (Universal) - Week 6  (last weekend - #5)

$5,500,000 in 2,767 theaters (-362); Change from last weekend: -25%; PSA: $1,980; Cumulative: $203,400,000

Prospects: The smallest weekend drop of any of the top 10, topping $200 million, and clearly headed for at least a couple more weeks in the top 10 as one of the best word of mouth hits of the summer.

8. THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN (Sony) - Week 5 (last weekend - #6)

$4,300,000 in 2,425 theaters (-735); Change from last weekend: -36%; PSA: $1,595; Cumulative: $250,640,000

Prospects: The relatively small fall-off is more impressive with Sony losing nearly a quarter of its theaters. However, at this point it seems certain that it will fall below the Sam Raimi "Spider-Man" entries, the least of which grossed $336 million with lower ticket prices, which with the reboot's $230-million budget is not what was anticipated. That said, with more than $700 million likely worldwide, it's still a success by any measure.

9. BRAVE (Buena Vista) - Week 7  (last Friday - #7)

$2,890,000 in 2,110 theaters (-441); Change from last weekend: -33%; PSA: $1,370; Cumulative: $223,324,000

Prospects: A decent hold while losing a bunch of theaters boosts the total gross, even if this has not performed at the level of the top Pixar releases.

10. MAGIC MIKE (Warner Brothers) - Week 6  (last weekend - #8)

$1,380,000 in 1,202 theaters (-873); Change from last Friday: -47%; PSA: $1,148; Cumulative: $110,894,000

Prospects: This is near the end of its run -- the theater count was down more than 40% -- but the film's legs are as impressive as those on display in the film.

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