Bad news: according to FilmeB and the Folha de São Paulo, the Brazilian box office from January to October 2006 dropped 7% compared to the same period last year. Why? Competition from home entertainment and piracy is an obvious factor, plus the severe lack of theaters in Brazil (but that's nothing new). Considering the fact that the box office here is almost entirely dependent on U.S. films for its revenue, and that very few blockbusters came out of Hollywood this year, things start to make a little more sense.

Forecasters are more optimistic for next year for the same reasons as Americans, namely because of all the sequels to some of the most successful movie franchises in history (Shrek, Harry Potter, Pirates of the Caribbean, and Spider-Man). But I'm more interested in what Brazilian films can do for the local box office. 2006 was disappointing because only two national films managed over one million spectators: Se Eu Fosse Você (a rather unoriginal comedy starring two famous tv actors) with 3.6 million, and Didi - O Caçador de Tesouros (a children's movie) with 1.1 million. (In 2005, 2 Filhos de Francisco broke records with 5.3 million spectators, and in 2003 Carandiru had 4.6 million.) Some of the big hopes cited for next year are A Grande Família, Antônia (which recently won an audience-voted distribution award at the Mostra), Caixa Dois, Cidade dos Homens, O Magnata, El Pasado, and Saneamento Básico - O Filme. All of these have big names involved and have the chance to draw big audiences (three are based on successful tv series), but they will need to appeal to the lower economic classes if they hope to break a million spectators. Appealing to the masses is a big enough challenge, but considering Brazil's widely distributed population and the fact that 90% of people don't have access to a movie theater, selling tickets here (especially for non-Hollywood films) is a particularly daunting task.