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How Big Will The Hunger Games Open?

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by Melissa Silverstein
March 2, 2012 12:03 PM
2 Comments
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The news is that this week when The Hunger Games came onto the pre release tracking (which is what the studios use to gauge awareness and desire to see a film) it was huge - so huge that experts are saying it could open between $70 and $100 million.

Looking at one year ago in the same date slot (3rd weekend in March), Limitless grossed almost $19 million.  The Hunger Games will clearly outperform that number but what is so interesting is the wide range of the prediction.  This film is another unprecdented film for the business and this is what excites me.  It excites me because unlike Twilight, this is a movie that stars a young woman who is clearly a STRONG female character and that boys, girls, men and women want to see this film.  This will be a huge cross over and while it won't make Harry Potter money, that series is a good model for this. 

This is a cross-over film and while the numbers of young women and girls who go and see will be huge, the numbers across other quadrants will also be big.

So while Twilight set the stage for the young female market with a $69 million opening (on Thnaksgiving weekend), The Hunger Games is going to take it to a whole new place.

This is going to be a really interesting month to watch as this all rolls out.  I also want people to keep in mind that this film has a female producer - Nina Jacobson. 

And PS Suzanne Collins posted on her Facebook site that she has seen the film and likes it.

Massive Tracking for 'Hunger Games' Could Mean a $100 Mil Opening (Hollywood Reporter)

'Hunger Games' could open at $100 million, surveys suggest (LA Times)

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2 Comments

  • Rena Moretti | March 17, 2012 1:22 AMReply

    I am still baffled at so much ink (so many electrons?) being spent on forecasting Box Office results given that they have been entirely disconnected from reality for at least ten years.

    Think about it, if Twilight had been such a boon, why did Summit sell itself to almost bankrupt Lion's Gate? It should have been BUYING Lion's Gate.

    So I'll make the prediction that Hunger Games will report blockbuster business that will make the stock go up (allowing insiders to unload a bunch of it at a better price!) and we won't know what the movie actually made until the quarterly report where Lion's Gate is likely to bemoan marketing expenses to explain why their huge hit isn't bringing in actual dollars and cents.

    One thing for sure, Lion's Gate is paying for lots of hype (see preceding post gushing about "everyone being exited about it). I saw the trailer, and I'm not excited about it at all.

    To me, it's yet another must-miss movie cast with mediocre actors and hyped to a frenzy.

    The type of movies that are killing the film industry (and the artform) dead.

  • Abigail Tarttelin (http://imakethingsup.tumblr.com) | March 3, 2012 11:37 AMReply

    Very, very much in agreeance that The Hunger Games provides a much stronger, much more developed female lead than the Twilight films, and that this is something to celebrate.

    Everybody is phenomenally excited about this film, and I have not met one person within either the publishing or film industry that has read these books or worked on the shoot/seen the edits etc that has not absolutely loved and fallen for this project.

    Young Adult (YA) is such a huge 'genre', if it can in fact be called that, at the moment. All the book-to-film people are frantically pouring over and buying up YA books because Twlight and Potter did so well, and since Harry Potter, an adult audience is reading and buying YA books (whether this is a good thing in itself is a discussion for another time!).

    For me it's doubly important to have strong women, and multi-faceted women, represented in films made from YA literature, because young women, the people we hand the world to, are going to understand women and our role in society through their teenage cinematic experiences. I have been admittedly pretty horrified watching the Twilight saga do so well. As someone brought up on Buffy The Vampire Slayer - a programme where the lead character was a 16 year old girl who kicked ass and solved her own problems - it was to my chagrin that a programme with a very similar vampire-based setting and plot became so popular just ten years later, with a female lead that (to summarise the films briefly) does the equivalent of: 'oh no! vampires are coming for me, don't worry, my boyfriend will protect me; wow is there nothing better than giving up your whole life for a guy?; let's get married at 17 (of course we can't have sex until we're married!!); let me lie before you so you can have your way with me (let's not use protection - I'm not from democrat country); of course I'm keeping our baby even if it kills me!; I'll give up my life for you no worries baby, make me a vampire.'

    I'm looking forward to the industry turning a new leaf, and giving young women (and young men!) a protagonist to look up to; someone who can teach them to be strong and fight their own problems. I can think of no one better than Jennifer Lawrence to do this. There seems to be a core of strength inside of her that shines through in every role she plays.

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